USD/JPY Analysis: Market could fall because of overbought zone. The USD/JPY continued its strong run last week, recording new daily gains on Friday in the US season. The pair remains poised for weekly advances of more than 1%. However, RSI is showing that the market holds onto an overbought zone that suggests caution to investors. So, we may see some profit-taking from this territory.
USD?JPY may reward if prices correct lower due to increased risk appetite from traders following recent Fed statements and ECB meetings earlier this month. The FED and ECB were optimistic about future asset purchases by both central banks despite some uncertainty at present. It is one of the big reasons that the JPY is getting weaker against most major currencies.
So, there is still the chance that USD/JPY may rise more based on fundamental analysis. But no one can ignore technical analysis. Based on price action, USD/JPY holds an overbought zone. So, it is expected that USD/JPY may sell-off because of profit-taking, but the overall fundamental trend may not change till the next FOMC meeting minutes.
From the present rate of 114.20, the immediate resistance and reversal zone is 114.70 /115.00. Therefore, I think USD/JPY may reverse from this level to the 112.50 price zone before it rises again.
To the upside, breaking above 115.00 will open the door for 116.00 (Fibonacci 61.8% Retracement Zone).
USD/JPY may take some time to break above 116.00 because investors will wait for the next FED and ECB speech about asset purchase. In case the FED refuses to purchase assets this year, USD/JPY will drop massively. But if the FED starts the asset purchase program, there is more chance that the USD/JPY may revisit the 118.50/118.70 Price zone.
On the other hand, from the present rate, immediate support is identifying at 112.50 price zone. Therefore, I expect the market to go for correction because of profit-taking from the current price of 114.20. Breaking below 112.50 will open the door for the 110.70/110.50 price zone.
110.50 hold as ascending trendline support and breaking below 110.50, next target 109.00. and finally 105.10.
