USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
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Has the USDJPY started a new breakout?USDJPY, do we have a new breakout underway?
After Friday’s surprise jobs report, the USD continued its revival. Combined with a weaker JPY, this led to a 2.07% surge to close out the week, and Friday’s bar also formed a breakout bar breaking the medium-term trend we have seen since October 2022. There’s other price action incorporated into this that we have covered in our analysis video.
The EURJPY has also beaten resistance, but the USDJPY looks a touch cleaner chart-wise at the present.
Could we see a new trend start on the USDJPY? We want to see price maintain a level above last Friday’s close, or if we see further selling, we want to see 130.50 hold. It would be a worrying sign for buyers if we see price move back below 129.30, and it could be a bust if price moves back below 128.
What do you think? Do you think we have a new move higher starting?
Good trading.
USD/JPY analysis ahead of the US inflation reportsUSD/JPY bounced off the one-week top yesterday and stayed firmer around its intraday high of late. This week, we've seen another missile test from North Korea, which may lead to further sanctions being put in place by the US.
We also saw Fed Chair Powell testify at a hearing about economics and potential new measures to fight Omicron (a related virus). All this news provides a lot of focus on covid variants. That helped JPY to dominate other significant currencies. As a result, JPY became strong against most of the major currencies.
USD/JPY consolidated the recent losses around 115.30, rising for the first time four days during early Tuesday. The risk barometer pair portrays the market's cautious optimism amid recently positive comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and covid updates. However, inflation fears ahead of Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data challenge the USD/JPY bulls.
The market's sentiment towards the US FED members remains hawkish, with worries around potential economic issues and a cure for the coronavirus- its variants.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made hawkish comments in prepared remarks this morning, which could be seen as a significant favor to positive risk-on moods.
Additionally, words from Merck's official saying, "Expect Molnupiravir mechanism to work against omicron any covid variant," could also be seen as positive for risk appetite.
However, what should note that market players remain cautious ahead of today's testimony from Fed Chair Powell and Wednesday's US inflation data.
If the US cannot manage to keep their in under control, USD/JPY may drop and test nearly 112.00
From the present rate, 115.65 is the immediate resistance, and swing high is the 116.35 price zone.
Technical Analysis
Last week USD/JPY tested 116.35 zones; what was the trendline resistance. Technically it was supposed to drop from that level. But Omicron and other issues help to drop more than 100+ pips.
From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the 114.70 price zone. So, I am expecting USD/JPY may test the 114.70 price zone very soon.
Then investors will wait for the inflation reports. If the US inflation reports print positive, USD/JPY may bounce back to the swing high 116.35 area or immediate resistance 115.65 area.
On the other hand, if the US inflation reports drop and Omicron spreads more than expected, USD/JPY has one more chance to test the 112.00 price zone this week.
USDJPY - Jump on the BandwagonWith the longer term double top and recent support failure, this pair should keep grinding lower. However, with NFP looming, it's more likely to grind sideways until the release.
That said; you can catch a few pips here and there by riding the consolidation channel sideways. Selling at the top is my preferred method for this pair right now, but you can also try to buy at the bottom. Selling at the top provides a close protective stop. The bottom 'can' provide a close stop, but the bottom (support) is more likely to fail before the top (resistance).
Trade safe and get out before NFP.