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USDKRW

S. Korea Central Bank Maintains Rates, Hints at Future EasingKey Points: The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% for the 12th consecutive meeting, marking the longest such streak on record. Despite the hold, the BoK signaled a potential shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance, suggesting rate cuts could be forthcoming if inflation and financial market conditions stabilize. Recent data indicates inflation is moderating, with headline inflation expected to fall below the 2.6% target, and core inflation on track to meet the 2.2% projection. The BoK acknowledges a slowdown in domestic growth but anticipates strong export performance to offset this weakness. Shifting Focus: A notable shift in the BoK's focus is evident, with financial stability taking center stage alongside inflation control. Governor Rhee Chang-Yong expressed concern about the rapid rise in household debt and housing prices, highlighting the potential risks to financial stability. The BoK acknowledges that addressing these issues may require coordinated efforts with the government beyond just monetary policy measures. Market Expectations and Policy Outlook: The market remains divided on the timing of the first rate cut, with forecasts ranging from August to October. The current sentiment leans towards a potential cut in October. The BoK will likely wait for further confirmation of inflation's sustained return to the 2% target before implementing any policy changes. High household debt levels and a depreciating Korean Won (down 7% against the USD) remain significant challenges that could delay rate cuts. Analysts suggest the BoK is preparing for a policy shift towards easing, potentially around October, but remains cautious due to lingering economic uncertainties and the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Conclusion: The Bank of Korea's cautious approach reflects a commitment to balancing inflation control with safeguarding financial stability. While inflation shows signs of easing, the central bank will likely prioritize managing risks associated with household debt and currency weakness before embarking on a rate-cutting cycle. The BoK's future policy decisions will hinge on forthcoming economic data, particularly inflation and growth figures, as well as the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Long
by signalmastermind
8 Good Reasons To Short USDFive world-class investors that are bearish on USD... 1) Ray Dalio “You can’t continue to run deficits, sell debt or print money rather than be productive and sustain that over a period of time. If we don’t work together to do the sound things, to be productive, to earn more than we spend, to build the stability of our currency and build a good balance sheet, we are going to decline." www.marketwatch.com 2) Stephen Roach "The US dollar could collapse by the end of 2021 and the economy can expect a more than 50% chance of a double-dip recession" “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit” “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” markets.businessinsider.com 3) Hugh Hendry “When I look at the world of macro, I think it’s telling us that we need a lower print on the dollar itself.” “I think we need the Treasury, and not the Fed, to step up to the plate and tell the world ‘we’re going to target 70 or 60 on the dollar index.’ That would change the world.” www.cnbc.com 4) Warren Buffet "The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net." "If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door." "If we have the same policies, the dollar will go down." moneyweek.com 5) Ulf Lindahl will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade, and “is the beginning of a very large move.” www.reuters.com Note: Analysts from Citi, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock are also bearish on USD www.aljazeera.com markets.businessinsider.com www.reuters.com
Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
1
ridethepig | KOSPI for the Yearly Close📌 The beauty of Korea is revealing itself right on time... the breakout is difficult to maintain as can be seen on the yearly close, the slingshot which turned out to a correct play for buyers has unlocked the potential for a major rally in 2021. Capital has its eyes on Korea (and a few others) for the advantage in its currency (KRW) and economic mobility across the continent. For different reasons to India, but with well placed influence, Korea has the chance to really outperform in the next decade. EM Equities and currencies are going to provide a lot of opportunities for 2020: With that recognition behind us, I am going to be spending a lot more time in Asia for this chapter in the economic cycle. From 2020 - 2030 we are going to see a the great migration of capital from West to East. The ability for KOSPI to break 2,600 is showing how flexible the bid really is into the year close. We also have to take note of the differentiation of outside candles on the yearly: Here deploying capital to Korea for a strong move in 2021, though it involves some understanding of the relevant sectors (we will dig deeper into some single stock opportunities and sectors later in the month so start to prepare your charts). Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
KRX:KOSPILong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | KRW for the Yearly Close📌 KRW for the Yearly Close This brings into an important consideration for review the long-term KRW chart, the plan chosen by sellers has been able to lure in late unaware buyers at the highs because of the simple nature of the impulse employed. By trapping the highs and aiming for the negative break in the yearly close, it is a very bearish sign. Moves like these, do not happen often and are noteworthy. Another Yearly outside candle which as a matter of fact, should fix itself towards 900. What is important for us to track here is the 'pressure' break which is being played after the Fed capitulation. So it is worth considering adding to shorts as this looks set to continue in 2021. 📌 Nevertheless, I will continue to go through the technicals across the board, before we dig into macro details together towards the end of year for a final talk shop. Thanks for keeping all the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | KRW Q3 Macro Flows📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked and almost ready to go... since the centralisation of EM FX has taken place, the board is forced to exchange in the same swing. Vaccine headlines are coming in from all angles, more fiscal and CB stimulus are also there for the last few days of July for markets to get stuck into. Typically we will see the ebb and flow in risk start by August, thin and choppy liquidity markets in the middle of summer make forr useful loading zones in calm waters. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
USDKRW - Covid-19 Hits Korean WonAs the increase of Covid-19 cases in South Korea keeps increasing (Currently 433 cases), I expect the Korean Won to drop heavily during the following days and weeks. The new cases have increased the fears about greater transmission outside China. I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the possibility of closing businesses due to the virus. I am expecting the USDKRW to go to higher than 1244 and then break to around 1273 in the following days or weeks. The last time USDKRW went to 1273 was in May 2010.
by Joel_Ochoa
Turning point for the South Korean WonPicture perfect technical setup here for a short play to the downside for USDKRW. - We hold a guarded optimistic view on economic recovery across the South Korean economy following revisions in growth expectations. We see slowing growth bottoming out with sensitivity now positioned to the upside and a gradual rebound across the semiconductor sector as a hedge against further monetary easing. - Confirmation via BOK commentary should see decisive technical conviction through the neckline and flows into the buyside floor as optimism rises. - Put exposure added across our macro and directional portfolios.
Short
by Portier