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Will the US Dollar Index Collapse Below 100? Or Back To 105?The big day has arrived: the first Fed rate cut. The burning question is, will it be 0.25% or 0.5%? In recent days, the markets have been leaning toward a 0.50% cut. Could this be the catalyst for a breakdown below the critical 100 level in the USDX? Let’s break down the charts and find out. Looking at the weekly charts, the 100 level has been a solid support zone for several years, briefly dipping below last year in what turned out to be a false breakout within the 100 - 107 range. I’ve highlighted some key levels on the charts: last year’s low at 99.47, and just below that, the 0.99 mark, which is a key Monthly 0.618% fib level and a strong former resistance turned support (see image below). Below this level is a significant BUY zone, where the massive 2022 rally began, breaking through 100 and eventually driving the price up to nearly 115. Considering these key areas, I do suspect we may see a breakdown through the 100 level, but it will likely be met with strong buying pressure at the areas mentioned. This is why, for now, I’m leaning toward the upside for the US dollar. Zooming into the daily charts, an M pattern is forming at this key support, suggesting that price is gearing up to break through the 100 level. Additionally, there’s a divergence emerging on the MACD, indicating that although a break below 100 might occur, it could be short-lived. This is why we should be looking for buy setups as the price dips under this level. Zooming in further to the 6-hour charts, we can see the divergence even more clearly, with the MACD on the verge of a crossover to the upside. With all of this in mind, a whipsaw move could be on the cards today after the rate decision. I’ll be turning on my TRFX indicator and watching for buy setups on dips under 100 and toward 0.99. Although the USDX may weaken in the longer term, I fully expect a strong reaction at the levels mentioned, with the price likely to run back up toward the 103-104 area before selling off again. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by TheFxAce
9
DXY is heading to 103.7 maybe lower(07/31/2024)In our last analysis, our predicted zone for DXY correction played well, the DXY corrected from 103.7 to 104.8 and crashed after hitting the last resistance. We are expecting DXY to retest the 103.7 zone again at least until NFP data. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
TVC:DXYShort
by fortunamarkets
DXY mini wave upward(5/7/2024)After the NFP and unemployment data, The DXY TVC:DXY faced a big correction. In this week, we believe this week is going to be calm because USD has no game-changing data. there is a possibility that the DXY is going to make some retracements in an upward direction. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by fortunamarkets
Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics. Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance: • Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. • US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis. • Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal. The Ripple Effects The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets: • Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows. • Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets. • Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports. The Road Ahead The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength. The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility. The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following: According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD. Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside. From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD. If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them . Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area. From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity. If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle . The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price. The price has bullish structure. The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity. There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future. DXY has bullish structure. The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well. In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.
Long
by Wiiso
2
USDX: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USDX Pattern – Continuation (Bullish) Support – 103.65 Resistance – 103.96 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDX on the daily chart. Today, we are asking if the USDX will set off on a new continuation higher after posting further bullish price action. The worry is if we don't see a close above resistance. This could set up a failed high, and if we don't see a break of resistance, this could set up a new extension lower. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Eightcap
EURUSD - IN ANTICIPATION OF A POSITIVE PCE REPORT (TARGET 1.081)The upcoming release of the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation metric closely monitored by the Fed, is scheduled for 13:30 GMT. Despite not anticipating major surprises due to its inclusion in the recent GDP report, investors will closely examine this data along with December's Personal Spending and Personal Income figures for deeper economic insights. While positive outcomes in spending and income could bolster the USD, disappointing results might signal weakening consumption, potentially impacting the USD's immediate performance. The previous retail sales data was extremely bullish. Retail Sales and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) often show a positive correlation, both reflecting consumer spending trends. While Retail Sales focus on goods, PCE covers a broader range including services. Both indicators are influenced by similar economic factors like employment rates and consumer confidence, making them crucial for understanding economic health. However, their scope differs, with PCE providing a more comprehensive view of total consumer spending. Traders should monitor these metrics for insights into consumer behaviour and overall economic conditions. Based on these macro assumptions I'll explore the bullish outcome for the dollar: What is on the chart? (Follow the steps) 1) We have our first accumulation structure which was followed by a breakout and also a market structure shift. This accumulation was fuelled by a 4H FVG. 2) When paired with the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator you'll notice more downside confirmations such as a break of both the daily Kijun and Tenkan, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist. Thirdly the weekly Tenkan was broken and retested. These are all major signals. 3) We're currently still range bound with the daily 0.786 level as support that was perfectly respected. This level is strengthened by the daily Kumo. 4) I am relying on the 4 Hour order block as the final resistance before the potential positive PCE data release which would be final blow. Price should continue its downfall towards sellside liquidity. Here are some extra charts to strengthen the bias: As usual, happy trading and have great day!! :)
Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
2
NZDUSD Price Movement After Fed Turns To Timing Of CutsAfter breaking through a strong resistance level in the range of 0.617-0.618, the price of NZDUSD continued to move upward within the framework of impulse wave 3. We expect the bullish trend to continue with minor pullbacks up to 0.645. In recent weeks, the New Zealand dollar has been one of the strongest currencies, but we expect this trend to continue in the medium term due to the Fed's intention to cut rates in 2024. Show your support by liking👍, following✅, sharing🙌, and commenting✍! Feel free to share your ideas and charts below. Your engagement is crucial in spreading the word and maintaining the relevance of the content. Thanks for being an essential part of this community! Analyst’s Disclosure: This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
Long
by AisenQuantum
1
Potential for Continued Rise in US Dollar as Bond Yields SpikeBond yields have been on the rise lately, and this trend may continue in the near future. As a result, it is crucial to approach the situation with caution and consider the potential opportunities it presents. The correlation between bond yields and the US dollar is well-established. When bond yields increase, it often attracts foreign investors seeking higher returns, leading to an appreciation in the value of the US dollar. Given the recent spike in bond yields, it is reasonable to anticipate a continued rise in the US dollar's value. However, it is important to note that market dynamics can be unpredictable, and various factors can influence currency movements. Therefore, I encourage you to exercise prudence and conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions. Here are a few factors to consider: 1. Monitor Economic Data: Keep a close eye on economic indicators such as inflation rates, employment figures, and GDP growth. These data points can provide insights into the overall health of the US economy and its potential impact on the currency. 2. Central Bank Policies: Stay informed about any shifts in monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Changes in interest rates or quantitative easing measures can significantly influence the US dollar's trajectory. 3. Global Events and Geopolitical Risks: Consider geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the US dollar. Factors such as trade tensions, political instability, or unexpected events can create volatility in the currency markets. Considering the potential for the US dollar to continue its rise, it may be prudent to explore long positions on the currency. However, I strongly urge you to conduct thorough research and consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Remember, trading involves inherent risks, and it is crucial to carefully assess your risk tolerance and financial goals. As always, it is essential to stay updated with the latest market news and trends. By staying informed and adopting a cautious approach, you can navigate the currency markets more effectively. Wishing you successful trading ahead!
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
2
Celebrating the Soaring US Dollar and Its Impact on Oil and the The US dollar has been on an impressive rise, leading to a remarkable domino effect on the oil market while simultaneously lowering the Euro. Let's dive into the details and explore the exciting opportunities this presents for all of us! First and foremost, let's celebrate the recent surge in the US dollar. This upward trajectory has been fueled by a combination of robust economic indicators, positive investor sentiment, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining a stable currency. As traders, we understand the significance of a strong US dollar, and it's time to capitalize on this favorable trend! The rising US dollar has an immediate impact on the oil market, as it becomes more expensive for countries with weaker currencies to purchase oil. This translates into increased demand for the US dollar in oil transactions, further driving up its value. So, let's keep an eye on the oil market and identify potential trading opportunities that can be leveraged to our advantage. Simultaneously, the Euro has experienced a decline against the US dollar. This can be attributed to various factors, including economic uncertainties, political developments, and the divergence in monetary policies between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. As traders, we can seize this opportunity to capitalize on the Euro's weakness and further strengthen our positions in the US dollar. Now, let's move on to the call-to-action! I encourage each and every one of you to continue to long the US dollar, as it shows no signs of slowing down. By strategically aligning our trading decisions with this ongoing trend, we can maximize our profits and achieve extraordinary success in the currency markets. Remember, timing is crucial in the world of trading, and the current market conditions are ripe for us to make a significant impact. Stay informed, keep a close eye on the latest economic news, and utilize the tools at our disposal to make well-informed trading decisions. As always, I am here to support and guide you on this exciting journey. If you have any questions, need assistance, or simply want to share your success stories, please don't hesitate to comment. Let's make the most of this golden opportunity and continue to thrive in the world of trading! Wishing you fruitful trades and abundant profits!
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
BTC's Dip Below 200 SMA Trendline and US Dollar's Resilience I wanted to bring to your attention the recent developments in the cryptocurrency market, particularly the decline of Bitcoin (BTC) below the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) trendline. Simultaneously, the US dollar has been gaining strength, hitting a six-month high. This aims to provide a neutral analysis of these events and suggests a potential trading strategy. As many of you know, the 200 SMA is considered a critical technical indicator that helps identify the overall trend of an asset. BTC's recent dip below this trendline is an important signal, indicating a potential shift in its long-term bullish sentiment. While this does not guarantee a prolonged downtrend, it is essential to consider this development in your trading decisions. Coinciding with BTC's decline, the US dollar has shown resilience in the global markets, reaching a six-month high. The strengthening of the US dollar can be attributed to various factors, such as positive economic indicators, rising interest rates, or geopolitical uncertainties. Regardless of the reasons, it is crucial to recognize the potential impact this could have on the cryptocurrency market. Considering these developments, we encourage you to consider a trading strategy that involves longing the US dollar index (DXY) while simultaneously shorting BTC. This strategy aims to take advantage of the US dollar's strength while potentially capitalizing on BTC's recent dip below the 200 SMA trendline. However, this does not provide financial advice or guarantee specific outcomes. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and trading decisions should always be based on thorough analysis and risk management. We recommend researching and consulting with financial professionals before making trading decisions. As always, it is crucial to stay informed about market trends, monitor key technical indicators, and adapt your trading strategies accordingly. Remember to implement appropriate risk management techniques and set stop-loss orders to protect your capital. If you have any questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to provide guidance and support to help you navigate the ever-changing cryptocurrency market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
2
Will DXY USD Rise Due to BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility? Introduction: Traders are often on the lookout for potential opportunities and risks that can impact the forex market. Recently, the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency has come under scrutiny, leading many to wonder if this could fuel a rise in the US Dollar Index (DXY). In this article, we explore current affairs and discuss why traders may consider longing for the dollar amidst these uncertainties. The BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility: The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations have been exploring the possibility of establishing an alternative currency to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This move aimed to challenge the dollar's dominance in international trade and finance. However, recent developments have raised concerns over the credibility of this alternative currency. Factors Affecting BRICS Alternative Currency: 1. Economic Disparities: The BRICS nations vary significantly regarding economic growth, political stability, and fiscal discipline. These disparities can undermine the credibility of the proposed alternative currency, as it requires a solid foundation to gain trust and acceptance in the global market. 2. Political Challenges: The BRICS countries face differing political ideologies, hindering their ability to maintain a unified front. Disagreements over economic policies, trade practices, and geopolitical tensions can weaken the credibility of the alternative currency, potentially favoring the US dollar. 3. Global Economic Uncertainty: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have caused economic uncertainties worldwide. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, further bolstering its value. Why Consider Longing the Dollar? Given the potential challenges faced by the BRICS alternative currency, traders may find it prudent to consider longing the US dollar. Here are a few reasons to support this stance: 1. Safe-Haven Status: The US dollar has historically been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. As market participants seek stability, the dollar strengthens, making it an attractive option for traders. 2. Global Reserve Currency: The US dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. This position grants it significant influence and liquidity, making it a preferred choice for international transactions. Any threat to the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency could further solidify the dollar's dominance. 3. Market Sentiment: Traders often base their decisions on market sentiment. If doubts surrounding the BRICS alternative currency persist, it could lead to a loss of confidence among investors. This shift in opinion may drive them towards the US dollar, potentially causing an upward movement in the DXY. Call-to-Action: Long the Dollar Considering the uncertainties surrounding the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency, traders are urged to evaluate the potential risks and rewards carefully. In light of the factors discussed, longing the US dollar could be a prudent strategy to consider. However, conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with financial advisors to make informed decisions are essential. Conclusion: As the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency faces threats, traders are left wondering about the potential impact on the US dollar. While uncertainties persist, the dollar's safe-haven status, global reserve currency position, and market sentiment may strengthen it. Traders are encouraged to closely monitor market developments and consider longing the dollar as a potential strategy in these uncertain times.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln