BACK the $$DOLLAR hedge against the BRICSWith Croatia becoming the latest addition to the BRICS
as of yesterday , 2023 isn't looking like much of a thing to celebrate for the Dollar.
it reminds me of my ex-girlfriend after i finally was done with all her prison like rules over the years.
did i enjoy part of our relationship, yeah maybe? ,but was it fair to me? absolutely f*n not. so here we are!
disgruntled, angry , and of-course we decided we needed something new.
Russia being the biggest instigator ,in collusion with China just like my 2 best friends , Roman and Charles their zeal to get me out of
my previous hell was met with charming delight. brazil ,india the supportive friends adding up my gang of 5 with south africa being the guy who
always comes late but makes us order a beer for them each time.
Creation of new BRICS recognizable currency will indeed cripple the dollar dominance its had over the global sphere the last 20-30 years.
power dynamics at play here ,these nations want some power back to themselves just like i did when my ex-D had me by the ropes ,especially with Taiwan-China relations and as well as Russia-Ukraine war during the course of last year , the need for control has escalated and these super powers feel the need to exercise their influence to gain more strategic overhead .
What these super powers don't know is that the US who in this case would be my ex-D , has so many options and you could argue that i have them too but her options weigh far much better than mine, i mean she's a damsel ,who would resist her in her favorite green dress. her control has spread to all parts of my brain , she fed me , protected me ,gave me all i wanted only problem is ,she took more than she gave and that right there is where we might find the problem , i trust her with my life ,heck everybody i know does too .
with inflation at peak , CPI will be most certainly be cut , she's so attractive she will have to be supported during this tough break up we in , ''recession'' it's called .
stimulation will be at a max and she will raise from the asses that am sure of, strong and independent she is.
buy D ,bye D shit i might have drunk alot
Usdlongs
USD Index multiple Bullish signalsUSD Index looking very bullish. Double bottom formed on the weekly and monthly. Monthly MACD cross up about to happen, last time that happened about June 2018 we jumped over 15% from 89.229 to 102.992. If we have a jump 15% from last low it would take us to about 104.457. Double bottom target is about 96.50. RSI on the monthly going up over 48 about to cross up over 50. Bullish Hidden divergence on the MACD as well. All just possibilities.
DXY LongHey traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 103.1 zone, we highly recommend to take a look at DXY at the beginning of every week if not everyday, that will help you to spot the direction of USD pairs and trade them more professionally. AS Fomc is approaching as well we expect USD to be outperforming!
DXYHey traders, DXY have formed a good bullish flag, that's a good sign if you are looking forwards executing some xxxusd short or usdxxx long the coming week. I highly recommend you to analyze DXY every end of the week if not everyday, that will help you to spot the direction of USD pairs and trade them in a more professional way.
Trade safe, Joe.
DXY UpdatesWe are still bullish on DXY. in the coming week we expect a little pullback from the supply zone before the index continues to push higher. the first zone in my eyes is 96.4
i highly recommend doing DXY analysis before market opening at least if not everyday. that will help you to spot important zones and directions of usd pairs and then trading the pairs in a more professional way.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY LongOur fundamental bias is tilted to the upside for this pair as the FED is expected to hike rates earlier due to inflation fears in the US economy. The JPY is expected to be pressured due to the BOJ assuring the market that they are not planning to raise rates anytime soon. We structurally expect the pair to complete a WXY in a higher timeframe.
USD/CAD LongThis is a short term 4H long trade as we expect dollar to appreciate in value as the FOMC is expected to announce the tapering of the QE Program this week. The ISM manufacturing PMI at 4 PM GMT will be the key catalyst of this trade if it comes out POSITIVE and beat the market expectations. However is at 4 PM GMT the Manufacturing PMI comes out positive without the price reaching entry level, you are clear to take the trade.
Fundamental and Analysis: FED want's to created the plan In this analsysi and updated, we see in the speculate news that Federal Reserve want to created a strategy that yesterday was lays us to boost inflation and make the US economic recovery their employments, other datas as it is important for the next weeks.
So, lookin in H4 we are in formation of bullish rising wedge, this is accomplish of what FED want, that is a correlated positive of the US economic, but for long-term and mid-term is not good, but now we could to appreciate a recovery of the economy.
And remember that in Daily we see a bullish divergence and I follow this timeframe.
Remember: Tomorrow I will going to make an weekly and monthly timeframe about the situation and to know the macrotrend and what we expect in the future in the US economic about the analysis, fundamentals and theory of technical analysis.
USD/CNY Analysis: Mid-TermTechnical Analysis
i) Looks like a Cup and Handle formation for USD/CNY on the weekly chart. Looking to short play the Handle, looking for entries between 6.62 - 6.64 down to 6.48 level.
ii) Our most likely scenario (1), will have a pullback from the Handle down to the 6.48 level from their should look for some long positions up to 6.8 level.
*ii) However, as any good trader should know is that you shouldn't get married to a position or scenario. Therefore, for this scenario (2) at the 6.48 level instead of immedietaly closing position I advice that we re-assess the markets at that moment in time and see whether we should continue shorting down to 6.3 further easing into shorts on the ride down.
**A1 is a copy/shadow of the Bars Pattern taken from A.
Fundamental Analysis
The strength of the US economy which led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year in conjunction with Trump's Tariffs has led the Chinese Yuan to fall more than 3% again the dollar in the past two weeks as tensions between the two largest economies has escalated.
Chinese companies have amassed huge leveles of US dollar debts in recent years through bond sales in Hong Kong, according to financial data provider Dealoagic. However, it seems that China has been preparing for the upcoming Trade War as Moody's Investors Service stated that 'll but five of the 49 rated South and Southeast Asian high-yield non-financial companies have protection in place against a significant rise in debt levels or borrowing costs, if their local currencies were to depreciate up to 15% against the US dollar. The 49 companies reported a combined US dollar debt total of $45.5 billion as of year-end 2017, or about 55% of their total outstanding debt'.
We can expect a further depeciation in the Yuan which shouldn't be to alarming for investors as it could make China's huge export industry more competitive globally as it makes Chinese products cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars. For which Trump has in the past repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency's value in order to acheive this.
(Buy) USDZAR Technical Analysis for April 18, 2018Hello Traders,
Today we shift our focus to USDZAR and from the charts, we can see that the ZAR is generally bullish but it looks like the USD is turning the corner if technical developments is anything to go by. As you can see in the weekly chart, USDZAR prices are generally moving up and with a stochastic buy signal turning from deep the oversold territory, we should be angling for USD buy opportunities in lower time frames.
Word of caution, let’s not rush and commit ourselves without sufficient reasons to. From the chart, USDZAR price action is finding resistance at the 20 period MA or the middle BB in the weekly chart and if indeed there is a break and close above 12.2, then we can as well ramp up bulls.
In the 4HR chart, we have some sort of a USD undervaluation with a whole bull candlestick printing below the lower BB. Because of this-and as historical prices shows-correction to the upside is inevitable. We are already seeing this and with those higher highs, aggressive traders can buy USD with stops below this week’s lows at 11.95. After all, if we buy, we are aligning ourselves with the weekly trend and increasing our odds of a possible break out.
Advised by this, my USDZAR trade plan is as follows:
Buy: 12
Stop Loss: 11.95
Take Profit: 12.60
Have good trading day and let me know what you think!!!
This Post was Originally Posted at Forex.Today by Dalmas Ngetich
(Buy Stops) USDJPY Technical Analysis for April 16, 2018Hello Traders,
My focus pair today is USDJPY and while the Yen seems to be gaining ground as the chart shows, I expect prices to possibly rebound and edge higher in the coming days. These are my reasons. In the weekly chart, stochastics are turning from deep the oversold territory and we have that clear buy signals and higher highs which begun from late March 2018.
What’s interesting though is this minor resistance at last year’s lows and this is why I really think that this week’s price action could possibly shape the short to medium term trend of this pair. With this resistance, last year’s lows or support will effectively become a resistance zone if it succeeds in rebuffing further bull pressure.
When we zoom in to the 4HR chart, prices are retesting a key support line. Even though our technical indicators are mixed, we should practice patience and wait until there is a stochastic buy signal or a double bar reversal pattern prints at this level. On the flip side, conservative traders can wait for a close above last week’s highs at around 107.80 before initiating longs.
Because of this projection, my USDJPY trade plan would be as follows:
Buy Stop: 107.80
Stop Loss: 107
Take Profit: 112 but ideally at 115
Let me know what you think. Have a good trading day!!
First published at Forex.Today by Dalmas Ngetich