Sell USD Across the Board (MXN, RUB, ZAR, EUR, NZD)Low-interest rates in the united states and a negative current account balance should continue to structurally weaken the U.S Dollar.
We look at the following trades
Long NZD/USD
Long EUR/USD
Short USD/RUB
Short USD/NOK
Short USD/CAD
Short USD/MXN
Short USD/ZAR
USDMXN
USDMXN - Peso - Short & Longer term view.Technical & Fundamental View:
Fundamental View: Longer term I do see dollar weakening this doesn't mean it's going to 0 and we all jump into crypto's! Just personal opinion but I do think the further QE we have inflation target of 2% DEC FOMC meeting is something I am very interested in and how large will the QE be and given the great vaccine news ..It's something to think about. QE and other tools they have, they are basic tools that are used within economic cycle, which you can research in your spare time and if you would like to know good books regarding that, message me privately or comment down below I'd be sure to help. I see further decline in the dollar longer term due many fundamental factors as I stared and you can read my last post on EUR. However, when trading think of good R/R. We are in range bound areas, in most of the G10 currencies, just look at the euro 1.16-1.19 for good solid few months...! But I am not jumping into the market.
When the market is range bound in technical stand point its going to break out eventually but short term, take advantage of the intra-day set ups for this example: I have been long Peso since 20.25353 for few days it didn't move yes frustrating but then it spiked higher on lower time frame I saw bullish formation, now my target are next resistance areas 20.800 areas. Does this mean you jump in right now? No - Do what your trade plan says, when I look at trades I personally look at good R/R this trade still does have potential.
Technical analysis - Long and short term:
Key support: 20.14100
Key resistance: 20.80200 & 21.11600
Short term formation: Small Channel resistance is 20.800 areas (It can be seen
Longer term formation: Bear flag
Short term view: Up towards 21.800 Areas (Good resistance Zone) and if it edges higher keep an eye on 200 EMA.
Long term view: Further decline towards retesting 20.14100 areas and perhaps decline longer term to lower areas of 20.000 areas which matches 161.8 Fib Retracement. Remember, market moves in waves!
Key tip: Follow your own trade plan & Journal your trades
(Remember - Just a trade idea, not a recommendation).
UsdMxn- a new rise to 22 zone is very probableThe 21 zone is strong support for UsdMxn and also the drop from 21.80 is contained in a falling wedge pattern
I strongly believe that 21 will hold and a break above the descending trend-line of the wedge would accelerate losses for Mexican Peso.
A buy trade for this pair could have a 1:3 R:R
USDMXN (4H) Backtest : 61% win rate across 23 trades => 15.4 RBacktest results : prnt.sc
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
USDMXN
Technical outlook
Bearish scenario
Since 24.03.2020 the pair is developing a bearish trend. Currently, the price is below 9 days EMA in conjunction with the pin bar that formed yesterday (15.10.2020). From technical point of view the first target for on the downside should be 20.8755 and if this level falls the long-term resistance around 20.40.
Bullish scenario
The resistance level of 21.50 should be monitored very closely as if the price start trade above this level for couple of days then the target of 21.85 should be achieved quite fast.
Fundamentals
The cyclicality is now in favor of MXN as a 10 years cycle in the USDMXN could be at its end.
Also, the elections in the USA could be the fuel behind the further drop in the USD as these kinds of events always lead to uncertainties.
Traders should keep in mind also that the environment of low interest rates in USA is by default good for the emerging markets as most if not all of their international debt is denominated in US dollars.
USDMXN on a daily channel 🦐USDMXN on the daily chart is perfectly moving inside a daily channel.
The price has just broken the daily support, if there will be a retest of it we can set a nice short order according to Plancton's strategy
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.