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USDMXN

Elliott Waves Suggests USDMXN Can Be A Nice ShortHey folks, In this article, I’ll give you an update on USDMXN, which we’ve talked about before. You probably noticed that the Mexican Peso (MXN) has been quite strong for the past couple of years, mainly because of higher interest rates compared to other places, USDMXN short was a good carry trade. However, things have started to shift a bit recently. Inflation in the US went up a bit due to rising energy costs, and some folks thought the Federal Reserve (FED) might keep a tough stance (hawkish) on monetary policy. This pushed the US Dollar higher along with yields. But now, there’s a new element in the mix – the geopolitical tension between Hamas and Israel. This situation can make the markets super jumpy and volatile. I’m not so sure if the FED can keep its hawkish stance in such a shaky environment. Keep in mind, during a conflict or war, a government might ease up on its tough policies to fund the war effort and get cheap financing. So, I’m wondering if it might be the right time to expect USDMXN to continue its downward trend. In fact, the pair has dropped this week, especially after markets opened with some gaps in various assets. From an Elliott Wave point of view, we can see a decent corrective rise from recent lows, a clear fourth wave move up to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance. We’re seeing a turnaround from there, and if we break key rising trendline, more bears could join the party. This makes sense since the overall trend is still bearish as long as the price stays below the 2022 trendline resistance. So, I think a fifth wave down might be just around the corner, and it could happen quite quickly, especially if the US Dollar’s trend changes, which is possible if stocks would stay in risk-on mode till end of the week.
Short
by ew-forecast
Broken Trendline Keeps USDMXN In Downtrend For Wave 5Broken Trendline Keeps USDMXN In Downtrend For Wave 5 from technical point of view and by Elliott wave theory. USDMXN shorts are doing very well as we mentioned and highlighted on October 12, when we spotted a corrective recovery in wave (4). As you can see today, USDMXN turned nicely down from projected resistance and it can be headed much lower as bulls failed to break above the daily trendline resistance in October. So this was seen as a corrective and temporary bounce; wave (4), which puts wave (5) in action after broken trendline support, so weakness is ready to resume, ideally down to 16.00.
Short
by ew-forecast
4
USDMXN: Channel Up calling for pullback buy.USDMXN has converted the 1D MA200 to support and is rising steadily inside a Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 54.479, MACD = 0.196, ADX = 35.456) so once the current pullback towards the 1D MA50 and the bottom of the Channel Up, is completed, we will buy again and target a new +5.93% rise (TP = 18.8000). A 1D candle close under the 1D MA50, will be bearish, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 17.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
1
USDMXN Prime short position as it approaches a 2-year ResistanceThe USDMXN pair has been on a strong rise since July 28th, which was a Lower Low at the bottom of a 2-year Bearish Megaphone pattern. The rally has extended to a point where the price is about to test that 2-year top (Lower Highs) Resistance. The previous Lower High was priced exactly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the new one is only a fraction away at 18.6900. We consider that current level already good enough to short, as the 1D RSI has also been on the overbought barrier (70.00) since October 03. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Mexican Peso Near the Peak of Its Power. Beware Aggressive Turn!For a long time, I maintained a scenario for the Mexican Peso that envisioned a bounce down all the way down to the mid-16s a view that seemed less than likely a few years ago with the Dollar hitting an all-time high at nearly 26 pesos per unit. Sadly I didn't hold strong enough conviction on the move happening to see it all way through, throwing the towel just in time to be on the sidelines for some of the most aggressive drops of the year. Having said all that, We can start to see some signs of exhaustion on this slide down, and if yes this sudden collapse came somewhat as a surprise if my expectations turn out to play out similar to what I am envisaging, we could see all the advance made by the Mexican currency effectively wiped out by a solid surging dollar in the latter half of this year and the year to come.
by HydraFinance
USDMXN 9/JUN/2023On the daily timeframe, the price of USDMXN is displaying a descending channel pattern. This pattern consists of a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a channel with a downward slope. Currently, the price is within the descending channel pattern and approaching the support level. Given the characteristics of a descending channel pattern, there is a higher probability of a price rebound or bounce when it reaches the support area. This means that we might see a temporary upward movement in the price as it interacts with the support line of the channel. If the US monetary policy tends to be dovish, meaning leaning towards looser or more accommodative measures, there is a possibility that the price could fall further. This could happen if the market interprets such policy as negative for the US dollar, leading to increased selling pressure on USDMXN. Paying attention to inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings is crucial for understanding the future direction of the USD. Here's why: Inflation refers to the increase in the general price level of goods and services over time. Rising inflation erodes the purchasing power of a currency, including the USD. Therefore, monitoring inflation data helps assess the potential impact on the USD's value. Higher inflation may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which can strengthen the currency, while lower inflation might imply a more accommodative stance, potentially weakening the currency. The FOMC is the policy-making body of the Federal Reserve, responsible for setting the monetary policy of the United States. FOMC meetings provide insights into the current economic conditions, growth projections, and decisions regarding interest rates and other monetary policy tools. Changes in interest rates directly affect the attractiveness of a currency for investors, impacting its value. Therefore, understanding the outcomes and statements from FOMC meetings is crucial for predicting the future direction of the USD. FOMC meetings also provide valuable information through the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. This guidance offers indications about the future path of monetary policy, such as the likelihood of rate hikes or cuts, tapering of asset purchases, or adjustments to other policy tools. Investors closely analyze these signals to anticipate shifts in interest rate differentials, which can influence currency exchange rates. Inflation data and FOMC meetings influence market sentiment and expectations. Positive economic data and signals of tighter monetary policy may instill confidence in the USD, attracting investors and supporting its value. Conversely, weaker inflation data or indications of a more accommodative policy stance might lead to concerns and a potential depreciation of the currency.
Long
by DNP-FX
Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD? On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was attributed to slower growth in food prices and a further decrease in energy costs. However, core inflation remained high at 5.5%, indicating that interest rates may need to stay high for some time to control it. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating a pause before expected rate cuts in September, which might be a little optimistic, as the Fed's target range remains at 5% to 5.25%. The Mexican peso gained strength to 17.544, its highest value since July 2017, as the difference between US and Mexican monetary policies became more pronounced. The RSI on the USDMXN suggests it is in an extreme oversold condition, so a pullback may be necessary. Resistance levels from 2017 for the pair may no longer be relevant, but the strongest value the peso reached in 2017 was $17.430, while the peak in 2016 was $17.050. For fundamental context, Banxico increased rates to an all-time high of 11.25% in March, despite a decrease in annual headline inflation that was greater than expected. Mexico's proximity to the US has also made it an attractive location for foreign companies to open factories targeting the American market and diversifying production from China. Additionally, the US economy's robust state has led to a rise in remittances to Mexico from expats.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
usdmxnLooking at usdmxn here i'm seeing a rejection formed with a Bearish OB on the Daily time frame. with Consolidating in a Triangle formation where price has finally broke and closed below this structure.formation At the same time we are breaking A major support area where we can see price continue to drop to the downside!! This is for information and demo purposes only! please feel free to comment below and let me know your feed back on this or any one of my trade ideas shared! Disclaimer - past profits don't guarantee future results, trading is risky and you can loose 100% of your account balance! Risk management is critical when you decide to trade in the forex markets
Short
by therealbinarymaster