Mexican inflation is dropping but not fast enoughToday we saw the Mexican inflation come out lower than expected but it is not where the Mexican central bank wants it to be yet. For that reason, the work to slow inflation down is not done yet and they will have to at least keep the rates high... On the technical side, we see price failing to create a new higher high and we just broke below the structure for a potential short term bearish movement.
USDMXN
USDMXN Prime short position as it approaches a 2-year ResistanceThe USDMXN pair has been on a strong rise since July 28th, which was a Lower Low at the bottom of a 2-year Bearish Megaphone pattern. The rally has extended to a point where the price is about to test that 2-year top (Lower Highs) Resistance. The previous Lower High was priced exactly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the new one is only a fraction away at 18.6900. We consider that current level already good enough to short, as the 1D RSI has also been on the overbought barrier (70.00) since October 03.
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Mexican Peso Near the Peak of Its Power. Beware Aggressive Turn!For a long time, I maintained a scenario for the Mexican Peso that envisioned a bounce down all the way down to the mid-16s a view that seemed less than likely a few years ago with the Dollar hitting an all-time high at nearly 26 pesos per unit. Sadly I didn't hold strong enough conviction on the move happening to see it all way through, throwing the towel just in time to be on the sidelines for some of the most aggressive drops of the year.
Having said all that, We can start to see some signs of exhaustion on this slide down, and if yes this sudden collapse came somewhat as a surprise if my expectations turn out to play out similar to what I am envisaging, we could see all the advance made by the Mexican currency effectively wiped out by a solid surging dollar in the latter half of this year and the year to come.
USDMXN (2,300 PIPS) (BUY)SL- 17.09143
TP- 17.37522
Good morning and happy Monday!
Today we are looking at the 2HR Timeframe.
Price made a higher high and pulled back to the 0.886 FIB so that means price is still respecting the previous low.
I am now expecting price to continue it's way up.
What do you guys think?
A thumbs up and a comment would be very appreciated. Thank you and stay safe!
Use proper risk management.
USDMXN 9/JUN/2023On the daily timeframe, the price of USDMXN is displaying a descending channel pattern. This pattern consists of a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a channel with a downward slope. Currently, the price is within the descending channel pattern and approaching the support level.
Given the characteristics of a descending channel pattern, there is a higher probability of a price rebound or bounce when it reaches the support area. This means that we might see a temporary upward movement in the price as it interacts with the support line of the channel.
If the US monetary policy tends to be dovish, meaning leaning towards looser or more accommodative measures, there is a possibility that the price could fall further. This could happen if the market interprets such policy as negative for the US dollar, leading to increased selling pressure on USDMXN.
Paying attention to inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings is crucial for understanding the future direction of the USD. Here's why:
Inflation refers to the increase in the general price level of goods and services over time. Rising inflation erodes the purchasing power of a currency, including the USD. Therefore, monitoring inflation data helps assess the potential impact on the USD's value. Higher inflation may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which can strengthen the currency, while lower inflation might imply a more accommodative stance, potentially weakening the currency.
The FOMC is the policy-making body of the Federal Reserve, responsible for setting the monetary policy of the United States. FOMC meetings provide insights into the current economic conditions, growth projections, and decisions regarding interest rates and other monetary policy tools. Changes in interest rates directly affect the attractiveness of a currency for investors, impacting its value. Therefore, understanding the outcomes and statements from FOMC meetings is crucial for predicting the future direction of the USD. FOMC meetings also provide valuable information through the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. This guidance offers indications about the future path of monetary policy, such as the likelihood of rate hikes or cuts, tapering of asset purchases, or adjustments to other policy tools. Investors closely analyze these signals to anticipate shifts in interest rate differentials, which can influence currency exchange rates.
Inflation data and FOMC meetings influence market sentiment and expectations. Positive economic data and signals of tighter monetary policy may instill confidence in the USD, attracting investors and supporting its value. Conversely, weaker inflation data or indications of a more accommodative policy stance might lead to concerns and a potential depreciation of the currency.
USDMXN Setup for a Huge Bearish Breakdown with +40% DownsideThe USDMXN has Bearishly Broken Below a Demand Line and backtested it as resiatnce as well as losing the support of the 89 Month EMA; we will now be attempting to crack the BAMM Trigger Line at the level of B and if we break that a Minimum 786-886 retrace would be very likely
Usd/Mxn Buy Idea From Weekly And Monthly SupportUsd/Mxn is at a Extreme Level of support.
Usd/Mxn has bounced from this level of support on the 15 min time frame.
The Idea is to buy this trade and put my stop loss under the daily candle.
Im using risk management and I will have 3 trades with 3 take profit areas.
It will fun for weeks...
Please Like and Subscribe
Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD? On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was attributed to slower growth in food prices and a further decrease in energy costs.
However, core inflation remained high at 5.5%, indicating that interest rates may need to stay high for some time to control it. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating a pause before expected rate cuts in September, which might be a little optimistic, as the Fed's target range remains at 5% to 5.25%.
The Mexican peso gained strength to 17.544, its highest value since July 2017, as the difference between US and Mexican monetary policies became more pronounced. The RSI on the USDMXN suggests it is in an extreme oversold condition, so a pullback may be necessary. Resistance levels from 2017 for the pair may no longer be relevant, but the strongest value the peso reached in 2017 was $17.430, while the peak in 2016 was $17.050.
For fundamental context, Banxico increased rates to an all-time high of 11.25% in March, despite a decrease in annual headline inflation that was greater than expected. Mexico's proximity to the US has also made it an attractive location for foreign companies to open factories targeting the American market and diversifying production from China. Additionally, the US economy's robust state has led to a rise in remittances to Mexico from expats.
usdmxnLooking at usdmxn here i'm seeing a rejection formed with a Bearish OB on the Daily time frame. with Consolidating in a Triangle formation where price has finally broke and closed below this structure.formation At the same time we are breaking A major support area where we can see price continue to drop to the downside!!
This is for information and demo purposes only! please feel free to comment below and let me know your feed back on this or any one of my trade ideas shared!
Disclaimer - past profits don't guarantee future results, trading is risky and you can loose 100% of your account balance! Risk management is critical when you decide to trade in the forex markets
DXY DAILY CHART - KEYLEVELS TO WATCHDXY for me at this point is neutral, im waiting for a broken trend or new lows for more ideas and targets.
More DXY will stay here, more the trust in other valutes willl be decreased.
So if here will be a consolidation zone, we will see USD more HIGHER , but for this, we need to a broken daily trend.
Dont be fomo at this point.
USD.TThis decline is part of a general pattern in the global currency market, in which the US dollar is losing its strength against other currencies, particularly the euro and the Chinese yuan. The main reason for this decline is the reduction of expectations for economic growth in the United States and concerns about the critical situation of the coronavirus in the country.
This decline could have widespread effects on global financial markets and trade, and could potentially lead to increased import costs for some countries. In these conditions, it is recommended that investors and businesses, if possible, use various financial tools such as currency exchanges and the stock market to reduce the effects of this decline and achieve greater profits.
USDMXN Trading Plan - 27/Mar/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect USDMXN to go Up after finishing this correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
USD/JPY market forecast and trend analysisDue to the significant decline in US bond yields, investors have been prompted to bet that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. The peak of US dollar interest rates is expected to come. It seems that the pressure on the yen in terms of interest spreads is being lifted, and the yen has once again returned to a clear strong return posture.
Judging from the trend, USD/JPY is currently under pressure in the trend channel, and has recently fallen under pressure here many times, supporting USD/JPY to continue to fluctuate in the downward channel, thereby increasing the possibility of the pair approaching the next bearish target near 130.
In addition, USD/JPY has fallen under pressure many times near 132.65, which has consumed the upward momentum to a certain extent. When market psychological pressure is formed, some subsequent selling orders may trigger short-selling to make up for it, and push USD/JPY to open a market to make up for the decline.
In terms of trading ideas, USD/JPY: You can enter the market with short orders near 132.65 in small batches, and the short-term target is near 131.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
[Watch] Mexican Peso 0️⃣0️⃣1️⃣| ¡Viva México! MXNWho loves Tacos al Pastor?
In this video, I want to share with you two technical views I have on this exotic currency; the Mexican peso FX:USDMXN
Remember, my critical fundamental view is based on the $5bn Tesla is about to invest in the new Nuevo Leon, Monterrey Gigafactory.
Above All and All in All: God Bless America...!
J.R. Jaén
Risk Disclaimer:
1️⃣Past Performance is not indicative of any future performance.
2️⃣Trading and Investing are risky. Only trade and invest with resources and capital; you can afford to lose, and it will not change your lifestyle or family situation if you do not make the returns you wanted or if things go wrong and you lose everything.
3️⃣I can and will have a position buying Mexican pesos because I like the country and love Tacos al Pastor.
4️⃣Never go All-In. You do not have to buy with your rent money; you do not have to believe with all your savings because NO one is asking you to do so. This video is a video log, a journal, and a path to share with others 'how to' find a potential investment if the US Dollar weakens.