ORBEX: AUDCHF, USDMXN: Both Looking Bearish!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about FX Minors AUDCHF and USDMXN as they both seem to be moving down impulsively.
Added uncertainty amid the latest trade delay, and poor Chinese activity and Australian employment data all add pressure on the Aussie.
Mexican peso, on the other hand, weakened yesterday following Banxico's decision to cut rates! But technicals hint to a short-term rise only?
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
USDMXN
Could USD/MXN Rally Soon ? Short Term Short - Longer Term LongThis post is for educational and demonstration purposes only and does not constitute a signal. I am labeling this as neutral right now because short term I see a push down, but long term I see a possible bull rally. Please refer to my linked posts below. Price has been consolidating within key zones. What I am watching for is the bigger buy opportunity. I am thinking that we could see one more push down before price rallies back up to the key zone as noted. As noted in the trade idea studies linked below, price does not move in a straight line. From zone to zone a lot of price action occurs. An idea shared reflects overall direction of the market (my expectation). However, getting to the point of target may take some time. Please feel free to like, comment and follow.
I now offer one-on-one mentoring sessions on how to read price action at a very reasonable price. I charge mainly for my time which is valuable. My goal is to help people win in the markets. Inbox for more information.
USDMXN 10/11/2019Hello Traders! Witaj!
We play with Smartmoney concepts, that means that we focus mostly on price action to determine what will happen in future.
As we all know, price is moved by BIG players: Banks, Institutional traders, HFT bots (we call them all of them SmartMoney).
They can't play as we do, cause of a HUGE lot sizes, so cause of that they need to SELL to BUY and BUY to SELL for positioning them self in the best possible spot.
If u were learn about trading from free and accessible knowledge, u probably heard about BUYing LOW and SELLing HIGH?
So SmartMoney must BUY LOWER and SELL HIGHER :)
We as retail traders are just a small fish in this ocean, so we need to catch the waves which are created by SmartMoney.
Don't forget to like if it was helpful to you. We appreciate likes and comments.
Jesli podobal Ci sie material zostaw like:) Masz pytania - pisz smialo :)
Thank you,
Dzieki za uwage :)
GOD BLESS U ALL!
USDMXN Long Trade IdeaUSDMXN is looking to be a good buy opportunity. As we can see it is currently respecting my curve line and is showing sign of an uptrend. My buy positions are now open with a tight stop loss (as shown by the dark red trend-line). This is a swing trade.
Always remember to use proper risk management.
Enjoy!
USDMXN 1W TRIANGLE BREAKOUT Triangles, Descending Triangles, Ascending Triangle and Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
USDMXN Head and Shoulders PatternUSDMXN was in a downtrend on the 4 hour chart with lower highs and lower lows. We then reached a very big support zone close to the 19.00 zone where we began to lose steam.
No more further lower highs and lower lows. We have now confirmed a higher low with a higher high break and close above the head and shoulders neckline.
The break was strong as you can see by the candle body. Target would be the flip zone near 19.50.
Do be wary of the 19.34 zone see how price reacts there.
USD/MXN Refer to Previous Idea LinkedThis idea is for demonstration and educational purposes and does not constitute a signal, but it is a study, as we study market structure and price action.
From this view over the past month, since mid-October 2019 and as we study USD/MXN we see evidence of reversal of trend forming in the market. If you refer to the post I shared a week or two ago (see USD/MXN idea linked below), you will see the progress of how we have come in terms of price action. Keep in mind that the market does not move in a straight line. An idea for today may not play out until days or weeks later. The market still will do what it does in terms of forming market structure, afterwhich we can look for longer term trades. The trade ideas often take time to play out. It's best that we watch and study and enter at optimal positions where we can take advantage of high volatility.
Now for today, What we saw today in terms of price action was a sharp impulse, towards the target I noted in the previous set up (see linked idea below). We know that the bulls are definitely present. Afterwards today we saw a sharp rejection, which could very well be a re-test to the previous price area, which is very common that after the impulse, we see a correction, and then a continuation, which confirms the new trend. After the re-test now we watch for continuation. Just like the USDZAR idea I shared yesterday (refer to USD/ZAR idea below) this could be very similar price action..Could be but not necessarily. It all depends on what actually happens. We could be getting what may be the same price action and then followed by a bullish run. As we look from zone to zone, I would hope to see price reach the first and second key zones as noted, which would make for a nice swing trade idea of almost 400 pips. Of course this idea does not mean pull the trigger. Study your confluences and wait for confirmation that bullish price action will continue before considering a buy. Remember, this does not have to play out, but it is simply an idea.. If you enter this trade at any time, you do so at your own risk. Always use proper risk management.
I will also note that USD/ZAR and USD/MXN are not related in any way or correlated. It just so happens that for demonstration purposes I am comparing these two based on similar price action in the recent past. They are both emerging market currencies however.
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USDMXN: Long against support...Currently $USDMXN sits at weekly support and turning up from oversold. I'm rotating from european currency shorts to $MXN and $CAD shorts here, $USDSEK, $USDCHF, $USDEUR and $USDGBP did make us some money but they got overbought recently. $DXY is likely trending higher still, so rotating to oversold dollar pairs seems like a viable strategy here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Mexican Peso finally going to move after years of bouncingAs we can see, we are getting to the final of a continuation form but it is not clear if it's a continuation to the first big downward move or the bigger uppward move that comes from the ´90s - 2000´s. I just wanted to update you with this since it's a very clear year size form. My personal opinion is long in short term and short in the long term. I think it is going to go up in the short term and from the bounce we are going to see if it will continue up. I feels it is trying to get down since it has been there a lot of time every time it gets to that boundry, but history tells us that mexican peso tends to lose vs dollar since fiat money is around.
USDMXN Wave/Pattern AnalysisHello Traders,
USDMXN has been trading nicely with patterns
In the recent weeks it has been pulling but towards the Higher Low Support zone and technically is now on the optimal long term buy level. A 2 year long RSI figure also suggests a buy near 40.000. We are taking this opportunity to go long with TP = 19.48600.
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Good luck traders and trade safe!
USDMXN: Optimal long term Buy Opportunity.The pair has been trading within a wide long term 1M Triangle since late 2016 that is getting narrower and narrower (RSI = 49.430, CCI = -26.4209, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) as it approaches its completion.
In the recent weeks it has been pulling but towards the Higher Low Support zone and technically is now on the optimal long term buy level. A 2 year long RSI figure also suggests a buy near 40.000. We are taking this opportunity to go long with TP = 19.85000.
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Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.