ORBEX: Pre-BoE GBJPY, Post-Fed USDMXNIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #USDMXN!
#Pound Remains Solid:
- MPs support 3-month extension
- Monthly CPI rise not as expected, but improved
#Yen Likely to Weaken:
- BoJ held rates unchanged but acknowledged increasing risks
- Ultraloose policy to be re-examined at October meeting
#MXN Supported By Fed:
- Emerging currencies will benefit from rate differentials
- Oil is bid and likely to move higher
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
USDMXN
Peso is testing 0.618 Fib retIt may go down with fewer tensions in trade wars and President trump away from bad tweets about Mexico. Fed meeting next week may be crucial for the peso as it supports on currency carry.
A breaking of 19.38/19.39 may detonate into a mayor recover close to 19.20. Actual levels may be attractive for long term bulls and price may have problems to break down.
EURJPY, USDMXN: FX Minor Pairs Affected By Policy ExpectationsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURJPY and USDMXN!
Euro, although affected by expectations that ECB will not only cut but probably also QE, is trading relatively firm against a weaker yen. BoJ's ease seems to be taken to heart compared to ECB's as Japan is ultraloose already!
The Mexican Peso, on the other hand, seems affected by expectations the Fed's hiking cycle has now turned dovish, with FOMC expected to cut again next week!?
Economic data that affected Yen, Dollar and Mexican Peso -* Euro is affected by ECB policy expectations:
- JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -6.6% vs -1.9%
- USD PPI m/m 0.1% vs 0.2%
- MXN Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y -1.7% vs -2.7%
Politics:
- China offers olive branch t US by reducing tariffs on certain US products
- Trump talks with the Iranian president to arrange a meeting
Monetary Policy:
- Markets expect ECB to cut, but not sure on QE yet. With QE we'll see double-whammy
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
USDMXN Bounce-PlayTwo possible scenarios:
1. USDMXN will create the next shooting star soon after reaching 20-- this new high and possible psychological resistance, and expecting it to drop back near 19.5 (or lower, possibly at 19 instead which is the 61.8 fib) by next month, or
2. USDMXN will continue rising near 2018 high esp if DXY tries to reach 100 before bouncing down as expected
Either way, this pair is pretty much overbought and due for a strong pullback, especially if we look at its weekly price action, recent bullish candles aren't as big as those back between April-June 2018 and October-November 2018.
Weekly:
Confidence: B (possible for this pair to reach new highs esp if market gets more risk-off overall while at the same time continue pushing DXY to climb to 100 faster-- after already pricing in the 2nd rate cut by Fed this coming September)
Buy lows for long term positonsThis par will break any moment, won't resist another attack to the 20.20. That is more likely to happen 1st quarter next year
Buy any low, key levels 19.10/19.25/19.40, watch for immigration cooperation, USMCA approval and carry to good entry points.
Factors:
Trump is going to be in the campaign, and he proved that anti-Mexican rhetoric pays.
Oil prices won't support the peso.
Mexico's president populist programs will affect the investment, slow growth is expected
Pemex may have a rating downward.
I think is too risky to think in 18s, will be more profitable to buy lows and wait to the 21 to 24
USDMXN forming bullish CRAB | A good long opportunity aheadPriceline of US Dollar / Mexican Peso Forex pair is forming a bullish CRAB pattern and soon it will be entered in potential reversal zone insha Allah.
Volume profile of complete pattern is showing less interest of traders here
RSI is oversold
But MACD is strong bearish and Stochastic is oversold but did not give any bull cross sofar, so I would suggest when the price action will be entered in PRZ area then wait for MACD to turn weak bearish or for stochastic bull cross then buy.
I have used Fibonacci sequence to set the targets:
Buy between: 19.47392 to 19.25942
Sell between: 19.64064 to 20.04382
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)
VIDEO ANALYSIS: TRADE UPDATES...USD WEAKNESSIn this video update, we take a look at our open USD trades and what is happening on the
USD Index as the value of the USD moves lower. Seasonally the USD is short through this period and
looks likely to continue through until october as the Fed is weighing up a rate cut.
USD/MXN For Long PossibilityThis idea is for educational and demonstration purposes and does not constitute a signal.
Does history repeat itself? You will see that I modeled previous price action as noted to current price action. Underlying fundamentals at play, to keep in mind are the weakening of the Mexico economy. Market structure mimics broadening wedge. Note also 9 and 50 EMAs which have crossed to the upside to indicate we are not quite over with the buy. Fib levels point to previous highs in the market. Trade at your own risk.
USDMXN at yearly highs, up 7% this year The Mexican Peso has weakened significantly this year amid political tension and the pair is now approaching key areas of resistance from late 2018, where lies a cluster of daily candles.
We could see the wicks being filled above the 20.60 mark should this momentum continue.
USDMXNThis could potentially be the best pair to short USD.
Trump, may get his rate cut and ratification of a new trade agreement.
Stops have to go above recent high or above 20.
I entered at 19.879
Note price is still in uptrend therefore if you are conservative trader you can wait for price to brake at lest black trendline and get it on retracement.