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USDMXN

USDMXN – Potential Triangle Breakout– Long Term Bullish TradeBackground: Based on the price data available on Monthly chart (see below), the USDMXN is in longer term Bullish trend. It formed a major spike high in Jan 2017 and since then it has been in a consolidation, forming higher lows, suggesting strong based being built. The extreme bullish sentiment for MXN might be fostered by the fact that the uncertainties associated with recent election and Trade Agreement with US is over. However the Trade Agreement with US might have complication currently not anticipated. Regardless the out performance by Mexican Peso might be coming to an end. Summary of some of the technical: 1. Monthly (see chart below in update) a. Whilst forming higher lows in this consolidation it is riding 50 MA. b. Bouncing of the bullish trendlines pivoted across alternative pivots. c. Possible Cup & Handle formation which is continuation Pattern d. Developing potential bullish diversion between MACD weakening in momentum to the downside and with price forming higher lows. This would be significant as MACD form possible low above zero line e. There is possible time symmetry of Approx 11 months between July 2017 low to June 2018 high and June 2018 high to April/May 2019 low being formed now. 2. Weekly (See chart below in Update) a. Potential Cup & Handle formation little more clearer, though there might be other more appropriate description. However series of higher low are very clear. b. MACD Bullish bounce around zero line is also very clear and bullish diversion. c. Riding 200 MA (weekly) d. ADX is a very slow indicator but it is now below 10. Bouncing from around this level is often an indication of possible new trend in the making. In conjunction with above observation this could be a bullish trend development. 3. Daily a. Since last major peak I Jan 2017 USDMXN could be forming a potential triangle of 3-3-3-3-3 structure. This likely completed with April 2018 low. b. A breakout above the 200 MA around 19.50 would confirm with initial resistance around 20 but longer term aiming for new high. c. MACD is bullish and DAX on daily is also formed a double bottom around 12 and higher low from compared with Oct 2018. 4. COT Data – (Please see chart in the Update) a. Has relative high open Interest. b. Net long by Non Commercial (Large Speculators) is at extreme level not seen since April 2013. c. Such extreme bullish sentiment on MXN could come under pressure if the MXN Peso began to weaken against USD and commence the next bullish cycle for USDMXN Conclusion: Longer term Bullish breakout of the consolidation is anticipated. Use your own method of entry and trade management. Suggested entry could be upon: 1. A clear breakout above 19.50. 2. A pull back towards 19.0. 3. As this is for a longer term trend trade initial stop could be set around below 18.0 or such level that is appropriate on lower time frame Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Long
by DanV
10
USDMXN A tequila "Shot"If you missed the buy opportunity of USDMXN at the bottom of the wick that touched the trendline, well dry your tears for you can short at the channel retest with a good return of 1400 pips if it gets to our TP of 1.90000 psychological handle. Watch PA closely, if the bullish momentum is strong enough to incise the channel, this trade will be invalidated as there's not a lot of fundamental backup to it. The USDMXN has a high pip return and would be nice to it to your trading portfolio. Happy trading and profitable week! NOTE:, I am still long on this pair since the entry on Friday but notice that we are heading to fib 50% and a major weekly turncoat-resistance, hence the neutral stance and EUREKA Moment!!!
by SleekPips
1
USDMXN - Descending TriangleHi everyone, After the market rallied during the last week in favor of the US dollar , we sold off later in the day making the chart bearish in the short run. It seems we are forming a descending triangle . We could go to 18.75 soon, and that could be a break to 18.50, especially if oil price don't fall. On the other hand, if we go bullish , I expect the prices to go to 19.19 and then to 19.50. However, as I mentioned, I am more in favor of a downside.
Short
by Joel_Ochoa
USDMXN: Happy Easter! Hey everyone first i want to wish everyone and their family a great easter weekend! We are looking at the USDMXN pair a second time after we were anticipating a great short from the last idea. I will link it below. We clearly see that the bearish trend line is broken and retested on the 1h timeframe. The red horizontal line is a key support level, where price did change before. Divergence is also in play around this area. We are looking for long in this area only and aiming for the last highs at least. I will keep you guys updated and have a great trading week!
Long
by darian_fx
Equal lows on USDMXN asking to be taken out waiting for comfWe just tested the daily breaker and liq void got filled where USDMXN is now rejecting from. You could short it here but i prefer some more confirmation so i would like the 4h orderblock to be broken wich will then become a breaker and i will short the retest off that breaker into the equal lows. Those lows are just to juicy not to be taken as many people their stops our right under there. This is as nice as setups like this get imo.
Short
by Civel
COTD - 23/04 USDMXNToday we are revisiting the USDMXN Daily chart, in a previous COTD back in February we looked at the Daily price action and what was a potential shorter-term set up (take a look here. The Shorter-term set-up didn't pan out on the back of a weaker dollar and more exotic shift on the back of this. But as the Dollar films a little bit we are going to revisit as the longer-term set up still stands. Taking a look at the chart we can see the price is still very much contained between the two trendlines, the one we are more focused on currently is supporting bullish trendline. As we can see currently, the price is sitting on top of this particular trend line and it looks like we finding some support here, especially as the Dollar Index ticks higher. Something else of note is the Analyst forecasts for the USDMXN rate throughout 2019. With on average, Analysts forecasting the USDMXN to end the second quarter of 2019 at $19.24 and then on to $19.47 at the end of the third quarter. FX:USDMXN
Long
by Alex_GoMarkets