USD/JPY market forecast and trend analysisDue to the significant decline in US bond yields, investors have been prompted to bet that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. The peak of US dollar interest rates is expected to come. It seems that the pressure on the yen in terms of interest spreads is being lifted, and the yen has once again returned to a clear strong return posture.
Judging from the trend, USD/JPY is currently under pressure in the trend channel, and has recently fallen under pressure here many times, supporting USD/JPY to continue to fluctuate in the downward channel, thereby increasing the possibility of the pair approaching the next bearish target near 130.
In addition, USD/JPY has fallen under pressure many times near 132.65, which has consumed the upward momentum to a certain extent. When market psychological pressure is formed, some subsequent selling orders may trigger short-selling to make up for it, and push USD/JPY to open a market to make up for the decline.
In terms of trading ideas, USD/JPY: You can enter the market with short orders near 132.65 in small batches, and the short-term target is near 131.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
USDMXN
[Watch] Mexican Peso 0️⃣0️⃣1️⃣| ¡Viva México! MXNWho loves Tacos al Pastor?
In this video, I want to share with you two technical views I have on this exotic currency; the Mexican peso FX:USDMXN
Remember, my critical fundamental view is based on the $5bn Tesla is about to invest in the new Nuevo Leon, Monterrey Gigafactory.
Above All and All in All: God Bless America...!
J.R. Jaén
Risk Disclaimer:
1️⃣Past Performance is not indicative of any future performance.
2️⃣Trading and Investing are risky. Only trade and invest with resources and capital; you can afford to lose, and it will not change your lifestyle or family situation if you do not make the returns you wanted or if things go wrong and you lose everything.
3️⃣I can and will have a position buying Mexican pesos because I like the country and love Tacos al Pastor.
4️⃣Never go All-In. You do not have to buy with your rent money; you do not have to believe with all your savings because NO one is asking you to do so. This video is a video log, a journal, and a path to share with others 'how to' find a potential investment if the US Dollar weakens.
GBP/USD:The pound was blocked, and the bears reacted strongly?The latest data from the United Kingdom show that the number of people employed in the British labor market has increased by 65,000, higher than the expected 52,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%.But the pace of wage growth has slowed, which is good news for the Bank of England.Because the central bank is seeking to control inflation, this is another factor to be considered at next week's interest rate meeting.On a global scale, the market turmoil after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to huge changes in the market's pricing of the central bank's interest rate outlook in the past few trading days.According to CME's Fedwatch tool, there is now a 25% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.Even the market has begun to digest the expectation that the Fed will turn to interest rate cuts at the end of the year.Under this situation, the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates may be eased, which will be of great help to resolve the British government's debt.In terms of interest spreads, the British pound will not be pulled too wide by other currencies.As a result, the pound may be able to gain some support from it.
Due to the rebound of the British pound for four consecutive trading days, it has left the original downward trend channel. However, over time, the market fear caused by the US banking crisis has gradually eased. Today, the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded sharply, suppressing the rise of the British pound and driving the British pound to begin to adjust the market. At present, the British pound has the intention of returning to the downward trend channel.However, if the 1.201 position can be supported, it is possible to carry out a short-term restorative rebound on this basis.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me.
The EUR/USD is expected to experience a short-term decline.
Every path we take in life is a kind of understanding. Along the way, we will encounter many people, and happiness is finding a warm person to spend a lifetime with. For relationships, perhaps the further away, the longer lasting they can be. In life, there are many things that we obtain and then forget. Ultimately, what accompanies us to the end of our memories are the things that we almost obtained but never did.
The fluctuation in the U.S. dollar index is actually quite normal, as the market needs this kind of fluctuation and requires a certain buffer. The market trend cannot rise directly and then plummet directly, as this will cause the market to collapse, especially since it is not a crisis stage now. Therefore, the current market does not have such a complex environment, causing the expected fluctuations and small oscillations that consume time, providing an opportunity for market adjustments.
In the face of this kind of fluctuation, the most appropriate operation is to buy low and sell high. However, this kind of pause state will not last too long because the important data - the announcement of the US non-farm payroll data for February - brought surprises and even shocks last month, and how will it perform tomorrow? It is certain that the announced non-farm data will attract the market's key attention and may even cause a chain reaction in the market, which is a well-known situation. Therefore, the market focus has been locked in advance, and today has naturally become a kind of rest before the important market trends, which can be considered the calm before the storm. Therefore, the possibility of fluctuation in today's market is very high, and the market trend will be relatively simple.
In summary, in the corresponding European and American currencies, it is possible to seize opportunities to sell short at high levels. Based on the market situation, the following suggestions are given for reference, subject to discretion:
Light position: Short at 1.0580, stop loss at 20 points, target at 1.0550 and 1.0530.
OANDA:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD
USDMXN Supply And Demand Analysis-Price inside monthly/weekly/ daily demand
-Price broke 4hr downward trend lines + removed opposing pivot point supply + DBR demand created
-Wait for pull back into demand.
Can UsdMxn Go Higher?This is one of the pairs that I enjoy charting. When UsdMxn has the right amount of momentum, you can really see this pair perform well.
We are watching this pair for a potential upside move. Does it have the ability to push up from here?
*This is not considered financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. Thank you for your positive rating and feel free to leave a comment below on your thoughts with the direction of this pair.
USDMXN Trading Plan - 17/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect USDMXN to go Up after finishing this correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
USDMXN Trading Plan - 10/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect USDMXN to go Up after finishing the 4H correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
USDMXN Trading Plan - 3/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect USDMXN to go Up after finishing this correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
WHAT IS A PIP AND HOW TO MEASURE IT?WHAT IS A PIP?
The pips is the unit with which we measure the price movement of a pair.
Example: If the USD/MXN pair is used. If the dollar is worth 20.7 and rises to 20.8, it is said to rise to 1 cent but in FOREX it is not measured with cents, it is measured with pips.
The price of the USD/MXN chart has 3 extra decimal places 20.8 000 those 3 extra decimal places are what the pips are measured with: the pip is the fourth number after the point . If the price changes from 20.8100 to 20.80101 the price moves 1 pips, if the price moves from 20.80100 to 20.80110 the price moves 10 pips and if the price moves from 20.80100 to 20.80300 the price moves 200 pips.
Pips are calculated differently depending on the pair, pairs with Japanese YEN and pairs WITHOUT Japanese YEN
PAIRS WITH YEN
USDMXN LOWER BEFORE X-MASS- Seasonally MXN is strong in NOC/DEC
- Seasonally USD is weak in DEC
- COT supports this outlook
- Asset Managers + Leveraged Money accumulating Longs
- Leveraged Money also distributing Shorts
- Looking for a drop from DEC Pivot to DEC S2
- Higher Timeframe objective is Weekly Bullish Orderblock at 18.80
COT: images2.imgbox.com
'USDMXN Breaking LowerUSDMXN is coming down, now breaking 19.43 decisively as the Bank of Mexico's lift rates from 9.25 to 10% as expected, while on other hand US inflation is coming down. So it's a double win for bears on USDMXN which are in full progress now in wave 3 with support around 19.00. Resistance on rally is at 19.43 and the trendline.
We have been bearish on USDMXN for a while and looking even for 18.50 pandemic level on a bigger picture. Below that is 17.33. We cover these in our video a few weeks back.
USD/MXN at support ahead of BanxicoUSD/MXN has been moving lower since April 2020 in a descending triangle. On a weekly timeframe, the pair found a zone of support between 19.5491 and 20.0338. USD/MXN bounced a number of times and tested the top downward sloping trendline of the channel, failing each time. As USD/MXN nears the apex of the triangle, is it ready to break lower? On May 30th, the pair pierced the low and made it to 19.4116 but bounced right back into the range. This week, the pair traded as low as 19.4310.
If USD/MXN breaks 19.4116, there is a confluence of support at the bottom trendline of the pair’s recent channel and the lows from February 2020 near 18.5235. Resistance sits above at 19.7530 and 20.0000.
Expectations are that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to hike rates by 75bps to bring the rate to 10%. If Banxico hikes by more than 75bps and is hawkish, watch for USD/MXN to break lower!
What do USD/MXN and S&P 500 VIX have in common?The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing currency in 2022.
Much of the MXN's outperformance has been the result of a very hawkish Mexican Central Bank, which hiked interest rates up to 9.25%, the highest since 2005. Another 75bps hike is expected at November 10th meeting, which would bring Mexican rates to 10%.
Aside from the Banxico hiking cycle in Mexico, the Peso has a strong correlation with global risk factors, namely the stock market volatility. To put it another way, historically, the USD/MXN pair and the S&P volatility index ( VIX ) have behaved similarly.
What are we seeing now?
The USD/MXN 14-day RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, highlighting the need for caution for investors willing to take on more risk at this stage, as MXN valuations are beginning to appear rather stretched.
Therefore, the bearish momentum for both USD/MXN and the VIX might have reached a peak.
Aside from the results of the midterm elections, investors will almost definitely have to digest another strong US CPI data this week. Analysts predict 8% annual inflation in October, with core inflation at 6.5%.
If actual results match or exceed estimates, Fed interest rate expectations will likely be reassessed higher. As the U.S. and Mexican economies are highly interdependent, the anticipated cyclical weakening of the U.S. economy bodes poorly for the Mexican economy and adds to MXN downward pressures.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity market specialist at Capital.com