USDMXN
USDMXN updates after JacksonThe positional struggle, or put simple the slow siege from sellers back to the base is finally exhausting.
Powell has attacked with a move several times the strength of the surrounding defence. USD will now maintain the pressure and birth of fresh strength will unlock the next leg higher in USDMXN.
Since 2018 we have been tracking the explosion higher. The break of the ABCDE triangle with Covid has already been analysed several times, much rather talk about the significance of the next move. Well, it renders the precedent and totally immobility of MXN, Powell confirming the USD offer is starting to expire means breaking strong support is no longer possible.
On the technicals we must be clear, the 18 handle contains not a little resentment but rather the ambitious dreams of forcing another move similar to what we saw in 2020, allowing our opponent into a false sense of security with a trap before capitulating as far as the eyes can see. The resistance to the topside is now mostly dead and buried.
For those looking to buy, the goal above comes in to play at 22.3x and 22.9x as a ideal extension.
USDMXN OpportunitiesUSDMXN, after being stuck in a range finally broke to the upside demonstrating some bullish structure and momentum. An opportunity could be taken in the marked area or near it as long price "rejects, establish clear support" and respects the previous resistance as a support this time.
💡 USD/MXN To the moon? Hi traders. Given USD strength the past couple days This USD pair looks to be the most interesting if it can play out this could be an explosive move higher. On the other hand if it breaks back below it would also be a nice short trade. Keep in mind the risk off sentiment in the markets as it will play a key role.
USDMXN top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDMXN Channelling Higher, Targeting 20.23Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. The FX Cross USDMXN is channeling higher and is currently and the lower end of the support channel around 20.05. Expectations are for support to hold and the FX Cross rally towards the upper end of the trend channel at around 20.23, 0.81% away. If this upward price movement breaks down, a stop loss should be set at around 20.
Technical Indicators
The short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages indicates a change in trend in USDMXN, supporting the short term bullish view. Currently USDMXN is trading above these respective moving averages and there has been a bullish crossover on them, with the short term fractal moving average crossing above the medium term fractal moving average.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 20.00 price level and a target of 20.23. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.50.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in USDMXN .
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDMXN Is Forming A Bearish TriangleHello traders!
We want to share a chart with interesting and known pattern called triangle on USDMXN currency pair.
As you can see, USDMXN is trading sideways since the beginning of 2021. With slow price action and corrective sideways wave structure, we believe it's just a correction within downtrend, ideally a bearish triangle formation within a higher degree wave (IV) that can send the price even lower within wave (V).
Triangles are continuation patterns which consist of five waves A-B-C-D-E and seems like the final wave E can be now in progress, so watch out for a drop back to lows towards 18.x area soon.
It’s also worth to mention that three weeks back the central bank of Mexico (Banxico) hiked the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. This seems to be very bullish for MXN across the board and it may last until other banks will start increasing the rates as well. However, a lot of CB seem to be waiting on the FED first. Today, Powell will definitely talk about inflation, but recent retracement on some of the commodities, like Lumber, may give more time to the FED, so they can wait with aggressive taper- talk, possibly till September or maybe even end of the year. Under that situation dollar may face limited upside.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.