UsdMxn - long term trend might be close to a reversalA three year bullish cycle might be close to end. While the monthly chart is still bullish, the daily chart is getting bearish. Back to monthly chart, I have stressed out two bearish patterns. The first one has failed, while the second one is still in formation. Obviously, there are now lower-highs and lower-lows to define an uptrend. However, the monthly chart is warning us about a possible upcoming change in trend. Only above area 22, the uptrend is again in place. In absence of further strength, I will be over sizing short trades rather than long ones.
Usdmxnshort
USDMXN WEEKS AHEAD.The mexican peso closes the week after a strong downward impulse starting on Wednesday. Next week we expect $USDMXN to continue with the bearish impulse that started after Donald Trump's press conference . If we don't get any "surprises" from the president-elect, we expect the peso to reach the support set at 21.32 looking for starting a bearish channel if it reaches the 21.19 and breaks it
UMEX short idea for upcoming rate decisionFX:USDMXN My favorite exotic, UMEX looks poised to have a substantial move down soon. The DXY looks ready to drop, and the forecast for tomorrows interest rate decision for the peso is up .5% to 5.25%! That 1-2 punch should knock out the peso, and bring it way down before it rises again, I am targeting the monthly pivot.
Long Peso Because Technicals and ElectionPreemptive note: This is non partisan analysis. Please do not waste my time (or yours) by saying anything about the polls not being accurate. That's self-indulging conspiracy theories that have no basis in any fact. Now onto the reasonings.
1) Price currently sitting at the .618 fib retrace. You can see this clearly on the chart. This is a level to look for a reversal. A short is thus worth it in terms of risk reward. Yes, the peso is right above this level as I am writing this, but I have absolute full-faith that this level (or the .764 retrace) will hold.
2) Hillary is still likely going to win because of demographics and how the electoral college works. The Peso's weakening in the last few days against the dollar is solely because of the market adjusting its expectations from a sure Clinton victory to more of a "meh" perspective.
Possible problems with this: Trump winning or the Fed inexplicably does not raise rates. I'm willing to accept those as unlikely risks and thus take the trade
short USDMXN adding to on break of trend lineFX:USDMXN has been on a savage tear the last 2 weeks. It has printed multiple Knoxville divergences as well. Using pivot points and trend lines, I shorted this on break of the last trend line. It now has 2 missed weekly piots, and 1 unhit weekly pivot. I want to short again on a break of the current trend line (which should also make it hit the weekly pivot). Ideally, I want to short it all the way down to the monthly pivot, but I may be satisfied with 19.0.
USD MXN SHORT: Short term & Long termPrice definitely doesn't wanna break the high you see on that spike up on the left. Some crazy good USD news would need to happen because it seems Bearish in general. ANYWHO LETS GET THE THE TRADE
It's basically a simple consolidation trade. TP 1 shouldn't take long to get to at all, but the full trade might take a week or two. Stay cautious about lot sizes with MXN as it moves even more than GbpJpy.
Best of luck everyone, never stop never stopping. ;)
USDMXN broke uptrend, might possibly go down after a re-test.Well, what do we have here? I'm seeing a 4-hour-chart based uptrend already broken, this pair is going down I think, but first it has to re-test that trendline, let's see what happens.
Any comments?
PS: I'm really ashamed, I used the word 'breaked' instead 'broke' hahaha my bad.
USDMxn short eow retrace4 hour Rsi approaching overbought. 1 hour is already overbought. USDMxn also approaching major resistance at 17.94ish. I think it will tap that resistance line then run down for a beautiful end of week trade. I have my sell order set at 17.9 and alerts set for a break of either line. If it breaks the trend before it hits my sell order I will handle it manually.