USDNOK
elliott wave: Third wave in action!I think the third wave was confirmed on Friday when it tested broken 200MA and closed below. Thursday Norway cuts interest rate and warns they could turn negative -expecting high selling pressure because of this. The same market reaction like after BOJ cut or ECB..
USDNOK long entry as soon as markets openHi all,
On the USDNOK (which is the Norwegian Krone, keep learning guys!) we have a solid entry as soon as the market opens in a few hours.
The visual flow is clearly up and on the 4h and 1h chart there is divergence on the RSI (please see below)
Entry is based on a swing high of exactly 1 year ago in combination with the 61.8% retracement of the recent swing.
Stop below the 38.2% retracement of the upward move since 2015 of last year. Targets are based on structure.
Entry: 8.40
Stop: 8.2585
Target 1: 8.589
Target 2: 8.7295
Target 3: 8.987
Best of luck!
USDNOK : Bearish view still intactGood morning traders,
USDNOK bearish view is still an option and I´m entering short at market with SL above 0.7
It´s my third attempt , so I need good luck :-)
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6 Trading Rules :
1. Never add to a losing position .
2. Don´t be the first to buy low and sell high ., and don´t be the last one to exit
3. Think like a fundamentalist, trade like a technician .
4. Keep your analysis simple
5. Start small and increase exposure when trend is confirming your analysis
6. The hard trade is the right trade
Josep Pocalles
USDNOK : Short setupHello traders,
There´s a potential wolfe wave pattern , with a target 8.06 area , and SL 8.76
6 Trading Rules :
1. Never add to a losing position .
2. Don´t be the first to buy low and sell high .
3. Think like a fundamentalist, trade like a technician .
4. Keep your analysis simple
5. Start small and increase exposure when trend is confirming your analysis
6. The hard trade is the right trade
Josep Pocalles
USDNOK potential bearish cypher pattern Will be looking to enter a short position at 8.84658 if the cypher pattern holds up.
Stop loss is based on previous structure as indicated by the red line.
Take profit is based on Fibonacci levels.
Unfortunately the risk/reward isn't the best I've ever seen, but I will still be looking to take this trade.
Fundamentals
Aren't any particularly exciting fundamentals to support this cypher pattern, although based on the current consolidation of crude oil (Norway's economy depends strongly on oil exports) as well as uncertainty in the US economy, an up and down move is definitely not unreasonable.
USDNOK: Long term decline in playThe chart is clear for USDNOK, it's apparently forming a topping pattern (which you won't see me use often, sine they are quite rare, and often misdiagnosed...).
The time at mode analysis of multiple timeframes, points to a moderately high probability of seeing a decline back to 7.6543 by June this year.
The entry on chart, is one of many possible entries, albeit a safe one with a pretty much 1 ATR% stop, shielded below the current downtrend mode, as well as the key fomc resistance level on chart. I have entered higher, but this is a good opportunity to join this trend.
I'm trading it as a position trade, adding on subsequent trades, and any kind of technical pretext I can find, since I know it can most certainly arrive to the target on chart, and I'd reccomend doing the same. It's not frequent to find such strong trend reversals.
Good luck if taking this trade and remember overnight swap is positive for it, as a nice extra bonus and incentive to add to the winners every chance you get.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.)
Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ."
There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary.
The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure.
Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off.
Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence.
The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend.
However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98.
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
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Short on Fractal Break on Sleeping Alligator at USDNOKThe Core Strategy of Trading Chaos is to look for A Sleeping Alligator and be Aggressive when in starts to wake up whether on up or down move. Now the Alligator woke up to the downside at its time to go short with stop loss at 1 tick below up fractal
USDNOK : Intraday ViewOn the Intraday chart of USDNOK we are following an idea of an complex correction, a double zig-zag that can still find lower levels before its completion. Currently we see price in red wave A), the first leg of a second zig-zag, labeled as blue wave Y-circled, that could be in final stages. A three wave rally towards 0.5 and 0.618 fibo. ratios would be treated as a correction in red wave B) that could ideally turn to the downside at 8.5975 where previous swing low can act as an resistance.
www.ew-forecast.com
@ewforecast
WTI Crude Continues Down, Therefore NOK Continues UP! Bonjour,
Do you guys remember the trade in USD/NOK? If not, here is the link to remind you:
We've since taken a similar trade ... mainly based on the fact that WTI Crude is seeing more downwards pressure after a small rally.
Congrats to all of our members, and do you know if you should stay for profit target #2 or not? By joining our ever expanding trading family you'll know...
À bientôt,
Maxmillian DuPont
(www.myfxlifestyle.com)