USDNOK long entry as soon as markets openHi all,
On the USDNOK (which is the Norwegian Krone, keep learning guys!) we have a solid entry as soon as the market opens in a few hours.
The visual flow is clearly up and on the 4h and 1h chart there is divergence on the RSI (please see below)
Entry is based on a swing high of exactly 1 year ago in combination with the 61.8% retracement of the recent swing.
Stop below the 38.2% retracement of the upward move since 2015 of last year. Targets are based on structure.
Entry: 8.40
Stop: 8.2585
Target 1: 8.589
Target 2: 8.7295
Target 3: 8.987
Best of luck!
USDNOK
USDNOK : Bearish view still intactGood morning traders,
USDNOK bearish view is still an option and I´m entering short at market with SL above 0.7
It´s my third attempt , so I need good luck :-)
You can subscribe to my mailing list for FX Alerts : eepurl.com
6 Trading Rules :
1. Never add to a losing position .
2. Don´t be the first to buy low and sell high ., and don´t be the last one to exit
3. Think like a fundamentalist, trade like a technician .
4. Keep your analysis simple
5. Start small and increase exposure when trend is confirming your analysis
6. The hard trade is the right trade
Josep Pocalles
USDNOK : Short setupHello traders,
There´s a potential wolfe wave pattern , with a target 8.06 area , and SL 8.76
6 Trading Rules :
1. Never add to a losing position .
2. Don´t be the first to buy low and sell high .
3. Think like a fundamentalist, trade like a technician .
4. Keep your analysis simple
5. Start small and increase exposure when trend is confirming your analysis
6. The hard trade is the right trade
Josep Pocalles
USDNOK potential bearish cypher pattern Will be looking to enter a short position at 8.84658 if the cypher pattern holds up.
Stop loss is based on previous structure as indicated by the red line.
Take profit is based on Fibonacci levels.
Unfortunately the risk/reward isn't the best I've ever seen, but I will still be looking to take this trade.
Fundamentals
Aren't any particularly exciting fundamentals to support this cypher pattern, although based on the current consolidation of crude oil (Norway's economy depends strongly on oil exports) as well as uncertainty in the US economy, an up and down move is definitely not unreasonable.
USDNOK: Long term decline in playThe chart is clear for USDNOK, it's apparently forming a topping pattern (which you won't see me use often, sine they are quite rare, and often misdiagnosed...).
The time at mode analysis of multiple timeframes, points to a moderately high probability of seeing a decline back to 7.6543 by June this year.
The entry on chart, is one of many possible entries, albeit a safe one with a pretty much 1 ATR% stop, shielded below the current downtrend mode, as well as the key fomc resistance level on chart. I have entered higher, but this is a good opportunity to join this trend.
I'm trading it as a position trade, adding on subsequent trades, and any kind of technical pretext I can find, since I know it can most certainly arrive to the target on chart, and I'd reccomend doing the same. It's not frequent to find such strong trend reversals.
Good luck if taking this trade and remember overnight swap is positive for it, as a nice extra bonus and incentive to add to the winners every chance you get.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.)
Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ."
There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary.
The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure.
Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off.
Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence.
The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend.
However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98.
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
www.investing.com
www.teachingcurrencytrading.com
oilpro.com
Short on Fractal Break on Sleeping Alligator at USDNOKThe Core Strategy of Trading Chaos is to look for A Sleeping Alligator and be Aggressive when in starts to wake up whether on up or down move. Now the Alligator woke up to the downside at its time to go short with stop loss at 1 tick below up fractal
USDNOK : Intraday ViewOn the Intraday chart of USDNOK we are following an idea of an complex correction, a double zig-zag that can still find lower levels before its completion. Currently we see price in red wave A), the first leg of a second zig-zag, labeled as blue wave Y-circled, that could be in final stages. A three wave rally towards 0.5 and 0.618 fibo. ratios would be treated as a correction in red wave B) that could ideally turn to the downside at 8.5975 where previous swing low can act as an resistance.
www.ew-forecast.com
@ewforecast
WTI Crude Continues Down, Therefore NOK Continues UP! Bonjour,
Do you guys remember the trade in USD/NOK? If not, here is the link to remind you:
We've since taken a similar trade ... mainly based on the fact that WTI Crude is seeing more downwards pressure after a small rally.
Congrats to all of our members, and do you know if you should stay for profit target #2 or not? By joining our ever expanding trading family you'll know...
À bientôt,
Maxmillian DuPont
(www.myfxlifestyle.com)
Clear breakout in USD/NOKBonjour,
today our "VIP" members took an aggressive trade in the USD/NOK pair. After noticing the downwards trend bottoming out, we opened two long positions on a breakout @ 8.7525. Scaled out of the first position at 8.7925 and closed out the second at 8.8270.
Both positions were closed out early, it runs out. However, we stuck to your predetermined risk profile and rode this one out for a great trade that pocketed us 1145 pips in total. Congrats to all "VIP" members in the room today.
À bientôt,
Maxmillian DuPont
(www.myfxlifestyle.com)
$USD v $NOK - Geo Eyes Imminent Bullish, Then Bearish TargetsQUICK ANALYSIS:
Here is another educational trade involving a combination of the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Geo. As you recall, the "Model" is very good at establishing targets, but poor at timing. Combining the "Model" with the Geo offers a high-probability visual pathway towards these targets.
In this particular case we have two sequential targets, both being qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo, imposing a deeper reversal impact on price compared to quantitative targets - TG-1, TG-2, ... etc. - which have a tendency to impose a shallower Fibonacci retracements in the order of 0.386 to 0.618).
As you may also recall, the WEEKLY chart recently hit a significant Qual-Target:
So, the interest at this time is to decipher the mechanism of descent which is likely to bring price down to about 6.6000, as illustrated in the weekly chart above.
For this, we can focus on a daily chart and appreciate the following geometry:
Looking a bit further, we can also focus at the 4-hour level and look into the morphology of that geometry - What we are looking for is a Geo, with its high-probability price control, as a rationale for that descent to lower lows:
Now that we have defined the contours of the Geo, following is a schematic projection of a probable price pathway, given the Predictive/Forecasting Model's predefined targets, as shown:
Following also illustrate a prudent, conservative entry when dealing with this sort of geometry, where the orange square defines that level that would trigger a short, but not until price Breaks Across, Closes Across ("BACA"):
Once a BACA < 1-3 Line occurs, then there is nothing else to do, but let the Predictive/Forecasting Model receive validation:
OVERALL:
Above illustration serves as an educational demonstration of how to deal with the Geo, the Wolfe Wave and any other contracting geometries. However, with the combination of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, there is a higher degree of probability that can be reached, and this is how most of the trade I share with the TradingView community are defined.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com
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Multiple Dollar pairs suggest downThis is an interesting portfolio.
Will these pairs follow USDCNH's lead?
Is this the beginning of a new fundamentally backed intermediate term trend?
Or just a very nice short term short?
Setups on chart, we will cover these in our skype group's discussions.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
A top is made in USDNOK?Since the recent high of 8.60, we have now a set of lower high and lower low. The pair is now testing earlier floor (support) as resistance. If we manage to turn down from current levels (8.42+), we should retest the recent lows around 8.33.
In that matter, we should have a nice risk/reward for a short-setup in USDNOK. Short from 8.41-8.44 which stop above 8.46 and target 8.33 and below (can trail from these levels).