NOK is strengthening thanks to the optimism in the oil outputThe better than expected conditions of the oil production in Norway is helping bearish investors to rally in sessions. The downward momentum is projected to last until the first half of June and potentially drag the USD/NOK lower and lower. The Norwegian krone is strengthening thanks to the optimism in the country’s oil output and considering that the crude market is already steadying, the oil-linked currency will most likely continue its direction. Bears investors of the US dollar to Norwegian krone exchange rate are effectively pushing the 50-day moving average lower and closer the 200-day moving average. Aside from its relationship with oil prices, another factor that is supporting the krone in forex sessions is the unexpected increase in the country’s retail sales. Recently, Statistics Norway noted that the direction of spending is less on services but more on retail goods, a change in the country’s consumption pattern.
USDNOK
USD/NOK Looks Like Distribution on the Daily.Distribution occurs prior to a downtrend. Distribution is the process of "smart money" selling shares without significantly affecting price. Source: school.stockcharts.com
The attributes of distribution:
1) It occurs after an advance.
2) Price should form some sort of a topping pattern. E.g. a double top, rising wedge, etc.
3) Price should not be making new highs.
I think that a lot of the USD pairs are distibuting.
The US dollar to Norwegian krone is bound to gradually declineExperts are betting on a bearish trajectory for the USD/NOK exchange rate for several factors. First, currencies that aren’t closely linked to the conditions of the commodity market and crude prices are most likely the ones who can successfully and efficiently recover against the greenback. The Norwegian krone isn’t a commodity-linked currency thus raising the chances for bearish investors of the pair. Second, the safe-haven appeal for the US dollar that is also projected to allow it to be dominant for at least three more months will falter if the United States government or the Federal Reserve ramps up their support for the economy. And looking at the status of the US economy and the labor force, chances that the authorities to unleash more support gets greater. This means that the US dollar to Norwegian krone is bound to gradually decline to its resistance thanks to the news that pressuring bullish investors in sessions.
USD/NOK Possible LongUSD/NOK Multiple Time Frame Technical Analysis:
This seems to behave locally according to the (-- Three Drives Pattern --)
It already (-- MADE ALL THE RETESTS --) and is supposed to hit the next drive up.
-- The Price is supposed to hit the Target Level 1 within the range of 10.80 -- (-- High Risk --)
-- The Price is supposed to hit the Target Level 2 within the range of 11.10-- (-- Normal Risk --)
The Risk to reward ratio indicates a high risk because Its a little bit late to enter the trade.
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Note:
- These Forecasts are Observational Forecasts, and should not be used in applying any trading strategies.
- No Hedge Funds Analysis were included in the analysis. (-- Please Consider --)
USDNOK Setting up for a large decline.The USD/NOK is trading at historic levels, which is why you see mostly purple and light blue lines (monthly and weekly levels).
I think that once support gets broken on USD/NOK we'll see a significant decline.
A. Light Blue: Weekly Levels (W)
B. Green: Daily Levels (D)
C. Purple: Monthly Levels and above (MO)
D. Orange: 3 day levels. (3D).
E. Red: (12 hour levels and below.)