USD/NZD: Capitalizing on Diverging Central Bank Monetary PolicyThe USD/NZD currency pair presents a strategic opportunity for investors due to the divergent monetary policy stances adopted by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Federal Reserve Adopts Cautious Approach: The U.S. dollar is finding support from the Fed's measured approach towards rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-dependent strategy, highlighting the need for "greater confidence" regarding inflation reaching the 2% target before considering a policy shift. This cautious stance is further reflected in the stability of the dollar index, despite earlier weakness due to softer payroll data.
RBNZ Signals Dovish Shift: In contrast, the RBNZ has exhibited a dovish tilt, hinting at the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. This shift stems from their increased confidence in curbing inflation and bringing it within the 1-3% target range this year. The dovish policy statement triggered a depreciation of the NZD, pushing it 0.51% lower. Analysts anticipate a potential rate cut by the RBNZ before year-end, as evidenced by market expectations pricing in a 30 basis point easing by October.
Market Response: The divergence in central bank policies is evident in the contrasting performance of the USD and NZD. The USD remains firm due to the Fed's cautious optimism, while the NZD faces pressure from the RBNZ's dovish signals. This dynamic is further amplified by the recent appreciation of the Australian dollar against the NZD.
Investment Implications:
Importance of Central Bank Communication and Economic Data: Investors should closely monitor central bank pronouncements and upcoming economic data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the U.S. and the June quarter inflation report in New Zealand. These reports will significantly influence market expectations and shape the future trajectory of the USD/NZD pair.
Navigating the Market Environment: The Fed's monetary policy stance and upcoming inflation data will be crucial factors determining the direction of the USD. Conversely, the RBNZ's inflation outlook and potential rate cuts will be key drivers for the NZD.
Conclusion: The USD/NZD currency pair presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on the contrasting monetary policies of the Fed and RBNZ. By staying informed about upcoming data releases and adapting to evolving economic conditions, investors can strategically navigate this dynamic market environment.
Usdnzdlong
NZD falls from top 10 most traded currencies list A couple surprising notes have appeared in the Bank of International Settlements’ (BIS) survey released today (28/10/2022). The triennial (occurring every three years) survey was conducted with the involvement of monetary authorities, like central banks, from 52 territories as well as 1,200+ commercial banks.
Trading volume increases
Foreign exchange trading volume increased to US $7.5 trillion per day, which represents a +14% increase over the US $6.6 trillion daily trading volume recorded when the survey was last conducted in 2019. The sales desk in the United Kingdom, the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan continued to dominate the processing of most trades, accounting for 78% or more of the trading volume. Interestingly, volume passing through the UK alone accounts for 38% of global trade, or US $2.6 trillion, however, this was down from 43% in 2019.
Changing rankings
The biggest surprise that was revealed in the survey was the changing hierarchy for the most traded foreign currencies.
For one, the New Zealand dollar has fallen out of the rankings for the top ten most traded currencies in the world. The New Zealand dollar was overtaken by the Singapore dollar, Swedish krona, Korean won, and Norwegian krone, and is now the 14th most traded currency in the world. Even so, the New Zealand dollar’s popularity is still disproportionate compared to the size of the New Zealand economy with the New Zealand dollar on one side of US $125 billion worth of trades per day, representing 1.7% of all trades.
While the rankings just outside the top ten experienced a shuffle, the US dollar remains the most traded currency in the world, accounting for one side of 88% of all foreign exchange trade. The top traded currencies in 2022 in the world are as follows:
US dollar
Euro
Japanese yen
British pound
Chinese renminbi
Australian dollar
Canadian dollar
Swiss franc
Hong Kong dollar
Singapore dollar
Swedish Krona
Korean won
Norwegian Krone
New Zealand dollar
Indian rupee
Mexican peso
Taiwan dollar
South African rand
Brazilian real
USDNZD on a falling wedge? 🦐USDNZD has found resistance on daily trendline and created a double bottom over it.
The market recently has been moving in a falling wedge formation and market found resistance on the possible break area around 1.51 area.
If the market will manage to break and close above the 4h structure we can set a nice long order according with our strategy.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
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