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DJ FXCM Index

USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following: According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD. Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside. From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD. If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them . Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area. From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity. If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle . The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price. The price has bullish structure. The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity. There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future. DXY has bullish structure. The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well. In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.
Long
by Wiiso
2
Surging Dollar Spurs Jump in Corporate FX HedgingThe relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is sending ripples of concern through the global economy, and businesses are taking notice. Faced with a strengthening greenback, corporations are increasingly turning to foreign exchange (FX) hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations on their bottom lines. This surge in hedging activity reflects a growing awareness of the risks associated with currency volatility and a proactive approach to protecting profits in an increasingly uncertain global landscape. The Dollar's Dominance The U.S. dollar has been on a tear, appreciating significantly against a basket of other major currencies. This surge is driven by a confluence of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and the relative strength of the U.S. economy. While a strong dollar can have some benefits, such as lower import costs, it also poses significant challenges for multinational corporations.1 Impact on Corporate Earnings For companies that generate revenue in foreign currencies but report earnings in U.S. dollars, a strong dollar can create a significant headwind. When foreign revenues are converted back into dollars, they are worth less than they were before the dollar's appreciation. This can lead to lower reported earnings, even if the company's underlying business performance remains strong. Conversely, companies that import goods priced in dollars but sell them in other currencies see their profit margins squeezed as their input costs rise. The Hedging Imperative In this environment of heightened currency risk, FX hedging has become a crucial tool for corporations.2 Hedging involves using financial instruments, such as forward contracts, options, or swaps, to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.3 This allows companies to insulate themselves from adverse currency movements and provides greater certainty about their future cash flows and earnings.4 Surge in Hedging Activity Market data suggests a significant uptick in corporate FX hedging activity. Treasurers and finance departments are increasingly prioritizing currency risk management, recognizing that even small fluctuations in exchange rates can have a material impact on their financial results. This increased focus on hedging is driven by several factors: • Heightened Volatility: The dollar's rapid appreciation has created significant volatility in currency markets, making it more difficult for companies to predict future exchange rates. This uncertainty underscores the need for hedging strategies to protect against unexpected currency swings. • Earnings Protection: As mentioned earlier, a strong dollar can erode corporate earnings. Hedging allows companies to mitigate this risk and ensure that their financial performance is not unduly impacted by currency fluctuations.5 • Strategic Planning: Hedging provides greater predictability in cash flows, which is essential for strategic planning and investment decisions.6 By locking in exchange rates, companies can make more informed decisions about future investments and expansion plans.7 • Shareholder Expectations: Investors are increasingly scrutinizing companies' currency risk management practices. Companies that proactively hedge against currency risks are often seen as more prudent and better managed, which can be a positive factor for investor confidence. Types of Hedging Strategies Companies employ a variety of hedging strategies depending on their specific needs and risk tolerance.8 Some common approaches include: • Forward Contracts: These contracts obligate a company to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date.9 This is a straightforward way to lock in exchange rates for future transactions. • Options: Currency options give a company the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price on or before a certain date.10 Options provide flexibility and allow companies to benefit from favorable currency movements while limiting their downside risk.11 • Currency Swaps: These agreements involve exchanging principal and/or interest payments in one currency for those in another currency.12 Swaps can be used to manage currency risk associated with long-term debt or investments.13 Challenges and Considerations While hedging can be an effective way to manage currency risk, it's not without its challenges. Hedging strategies can be complex and require specialized expertise. Furthermore, hedging involves costs, such as premiums paid for options or fees for forward contracts.14 Companies need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of hedging and choose strategies that are appropriate for their specific circumstances. Looking Ahead The strong dollar is likely to remain a significant factor in the global economy for the foreseeable future. As such, corporate FX hedging is expected to remain a priority for multinational companies. Companies that proactively manage their currency risk are better positioned to navigate the challenges of a strong dollar environment and protect their earnings from adverse currency movements.15 The current surge in hedging activity reflects a growing recognition of this reality and a proactive approach to mitigating currency risk in an increasingly interconnected world. As global economic conditions evolve, companies will need to remain vigilant and adapt their hedging strategies accordingly to ensure they are adequately protected from currency volatility.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
The Friday Forecast; Best Setups Frr Feb 7This market outlook will cover 15 markets: ES \ S&P 500 NQ | NASDAQ 100 YM | Dow Jones 30 GC |Gold SiI | Silver PL | Platinum HG | Copper USD Index EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD CAD, USDCAD CHF, USDCHF JPY, USDJPY Non Farm Payroll news tomorrow! This is likely to inject a lot of volatility into the markets. I recommend to wait until after the news is announced before executing on any trades. You never know where the market will go! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6J1!
by RT_Money
DXY: rebounding at the bottom of the Megaphone.The U.S. Dollar Index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.335, MACD = 0.03, ADX = 16.853) as it took a turnaround on the HL trendline of the 2 month Bullish Megaphone. The 4H MACD will form a Bullish Cross today and once the 4H MA50 breaks, we will have the buy trigger for the new bullish wave. We expect this to test at least the LH trendline (if not the R1 Zone), which is where January's wave peaked, marginally over the 0.786 Fibonacci. Go long (TP = 109.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Continuation with Key Targets This chart shows a bullish trend for gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with price respecting an upward trendline and staying above key moving averages. A possible buy zone is identified near the trendline support, suggesting potential continuation to the upside. The first target is set around 2,880, while the second target extends to 2,901. The structure indicates break-of-structure (BOS) and change-of-character (ChoCh) points, confirming bullish momentum. If price holds above the buy zone, further upside movement toward the targets is likely. A break below the trendline could signal a short-term cor OANDA:XAUUSD rection.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Could the price bounce from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 107.14 1st Support: 106.57 1st Resistance: 108.11 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
1
USDCHF Be ready for these trades based on the 1D MA50.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 06 2024 bottom. This is inside a larger Rectangle in which the pair is consolidating for the past 1.5 year. The bottom of the Channel Up is being tested again today for the 2nd time since January 27, which was a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test. This is the key of the pair's trend technically in our opinion. The current level being so close to the 1D MA50, is the ideal short-term buy entry to target Resistance 1 at 0.92265 on the lowest risk. If the price breaks below the 1D MA50 however, we will quickly take the minimal loss and reverse to selling the bounce near 0.9100, as this bearish break-out took place on both previous Channel Up patterns on May 15 2024 and October 19 2023. In that case the trade will be long-term, targeting just above Support 1 at 0.84000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
The Stablecoin Revolution: Is the Dollar's Reign Over? The Future of the Global Cryptocurrency Market: Navigating the Rise of Stablecoins and the Shifting Sands of Global Finance The cryptocurrency market has exploded in popularity over the past decade, evolving from a niche interest to a global phenomenon. While Bitcoin remains the dominant player, the landscape is rapidly diversifying, with stablecoins like USDC and Tether playing an increasingly crucial role. This article explores the future of the global cryptocurrency market, examining the growing influence of stablecoins and their potential impact on the traditional financial system, particularly in relation to the US dollar and the DXY index. The Rise of Stablecoins: Bridging the Gap Between Crypto and Fiat Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to a fiat currency like the US dollar. This stability makes them attractive for everyday transactions and as a safe haven within the volatile crypto market. USDC and Tether are the two largest stablecoins, with market capitalizations in the tens of billions of dollars. The appeal of stablecoins lies in their ability to combine the benefits of cryptocurrencies – such as speed, low transaction costs, and 24/7 availability – with the stability of traditional currencies. This makes them ideal for a variety of use cases, including: • Remittances: Sending money across borders using stablecoins can be faster and cheaper than traditional methods. • Payments: Stablecoins can be used for everyday purchases, both online and in physical stores. • Trading: Stablecoins provide a stable asset for traders to use when navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market. • Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Stablecoins are a key component of DeFi protocols, where they are used for lending, borrowing, and trading. The Impact on the US Dollar and the DXY Index The growing adoption of stablecoins has raised questions about their potential impact on the US dollar and the DXY index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies. Some analysts believe that the widespread use of stablecoins could weaken the dollar's dominance in global trade and finance. However, it's important to note that most stablecoins are currently pegged to the US dollar. This means that their value is directly tied to the dollar's performance. As a result, the rise of stablecoins could actually strengthen the dollar's position in the short term. In the long run, the impact of stablecoins on the dollar will depend on several factors, including: • Regulation: Governments around the world are beginning to pay close attention to stablecoins. The regulatory frameworks that are developed will play a significant role in shaping the future of these digital assets. • Adoption: The widespread adoption of stablecoins will be a key factor in determining their impact on the dollar. If stablecoins become a major force in global finance, they could challenge the dollar's dominance. • Competition: The emergence of other stablecoins pegged to different currencies, or even central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), could reduce the reliance on dollar-pegged stablecoins. Opportunities and Challenges in the Cryptocurrency Market The future of the cryptocurrency market is full of opportunities and challenges. The continued growth of stablecoins is likely to play a significant role in shaping this future. Other key trends to watch include: • Institutional adoption: More and more institutional investors are entering the cryptocurrency market. This is bringing increased legitimacy and liquidity to the market. • Technological innovation: The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, with new technologies and applications being developed all the time. This innovation is driving the growth of the market. • Regulatory clarity: As governments around the world develop clearer regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies, this will help to reduce uncertainty and encourage further adoption. However, there are also challenges that the cryptocurrency market must overcome, including: • Volatility: The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, which can make it risky for investors. • Security: There have been a number of high-profile hacks and scams in the cryptocurrency market, which have raised concerns about security. • Environmental concerns: The energy consumption of some cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, has raised concerns about their environmental impact. Conclusion The future of the global cryptocurrency market is bright, with stablecoins playing an increasingly important role. While the impact on the US dollar and the DXY index remains to be seen, it's clear that stablecoins are changing the landscape of global finance. As the market continues to evolve, it will be important to keep an eye on the latest developments and to be aware of the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 107.57 1st Support: 106.51 1st Resistance: 108.79 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
EURUSD: 4H Bullish Cross not so bullish historically.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.247, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.205) and just formed a 4H Bullish Cross between the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200. This hasn't had a bullish effect in the past 12 months as the two times we saw it in 2024, it immediatelly market the top of the short term trend and caused pull backs to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently we will use it as an instant sell signal (TP = 1.02625). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
Is the Dollar Index (DXY) Rolling Over?Chart Analysis: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has pulled back from its recent highs after testing the 110.00 resistance level. The index remains within an established upward channel, but the latest price action suggests a short-term loss of momentum. 1️⃣ Uptrend Intact but Testing Support: The index has been trading within a rising channel (highlighted in green). Recent price action shows a rejection near 110.00, with a sharp pullback testing the lower boundary of the channel. 2️⃣ Moving Averages as Key Support: 50-day SMA (blue): Currently at 107.76, acting as dynamic support. 200-day SMA (red): Trending at 104.80, confirming a longer-term bullish structure. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Show Weakness: RSI: At 47.53, below the neutral 50 level, indicating fading bullish momentum. MACD: Slightly positive but showing signs of flattening, suggesting a potential slowdown in upside momentum. What to Watch: A break below 107.50 could accelerate selling pressure, leading to a deeper retracement. Holding above the 50-day SMA may support a rebound attempt toward 110.00 resistance. A confirmed breakout above 110.00 would reinforce bullish continuation, while failure to reclaim the highs may lead to further downside testing. The U.S. Dollar Index remains within a bullish structure, but the recent rejection at resistance calls for caution. Traders should monitor price action around key support levels to gauge the next move. -MW
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Breakdown with Potential RecoveryThis chart is a 1-hour time frame of Gold CFDs (US$/OZ) Key Observations: 1. Current Price: The market is trading at $2,779.935, showing a -0.63% decline. 2. Resistance & Support Levels: Resistance Zone (Green Box at the top): Around $2,795 - $2,801. Support Zone (Green Box at the bottom): Around $2,728 - $2,740. 3. Trendlines & Patterns: ABC Pattern: A corrective wave structure is visible: (A) - Initial Uptrend (B) - Continuation Higher (C) - Market Reversal Downward Bearish Breakdown: After reaching the peak at (C), the price broke below an upward trendline (blue). 4. Potential Price Movements (Forecasted Scenarios): Bearish Move (Red Arrow & Box): A downward move is expected, targeting the lower support zone (~$2,740). Bullish Recovery (Upward Arrow): If support holds, a possible recovery towards $2,795 - $2,801 could occur. Conclusion & Trading Strategy: Bearish Bias: If price stays below $2,784, a further decline towards $2,740 is likely. Bullish Recovery: A strong rejection from $2,740 could push the price back up to $2,795+. Key Levels to Watch: $2,784 (minor resistance) and $2,740 (major support).
TVC:GOLDShort
by FOREX_QUEEN_10
Market Analysis: Bullish Harmonic Bat Pattern on GBP/USDOverview of the Setup : This chart highlights a **Bullish Harmonic Bat Pattern** on the GBP/USD pair, with the potential for a reversal to the upside after completing the pattern near the critical support zone. --- ** Key Observations: 1. Harmonic Pattern : - The **Bullish Bat Pattern** completes at point X (around 1.22628), which aligns with the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level of the XA leg. This level represents a strong confluence of support and potential reversal. - The reaction at this zone suggests that buyers may be stepping in. 2. Price Action : - The recent downtrend has reached exhaustion at point X, with the price consolidating and showing signs of a potential reversal. - The price has formed a **lower wick**, indicating rejection of lower levels and possible bullish momentum building. 3. Fibonacci and Take-Profit Targets : - **Take-Profit Levels (TP):** - **T1:** 1.23541 (50% retracement of the XA leg). - **T2:** 1.24187 (0.618 retracement of the XA leg). - The harmonic structure suggests these levels as the most probable targets for a bullish reversal. 4. Indicators : - **Stochastic Oscillator:** In the oversold territory, signaling the likelihood of upward price movement as selling pressure weakens. - **RSI:** Approaching oversold levels, further supporting the bullish reversal hypothesis. 5. Key Levels : - **Support Zone:** Point X near 1.2260 is the critical level for the pattern’s validity. - **Resistance Zones:** MHQP at 1.2500 is a longer-term resistance, while intermediate resistance levels are 1.2350 and 1.2418. --- Outlook and Strategy : - **Bullish Bias:** The completion of the Bullish Bat Pattern and confluence of support suggest an opportunity for long positions targeting the Fibonacci take-profit levels (T1 and T2). - **Entry Zone:** Enter long positions near 1.2260 if price action shows sustained bullish rejection. - **Stop-Loss:** Place stops below 1.2220 to account for false breakouts. - **Targets:** - **T1:** 1.2350 - **T2:** 1.2418 Risk Factors : - A sustained break below 1.2260 would invalidate the pattern and could lead to continued bearish momentum toward 1.2200. --- This analysis highlights a bullish opportunity driven by the completion of the harmonic pattern, with clearly defined entry, exit, and risk parameters.
Long
by BeaucoupPips
BTC/USD Short-Term Rebound: Testing Key Resistance AheadThis BTC/USD chart (2-hour timeframe) shows a descending triangle pattern with a strong resistance trendline. Key Observations: 1. Price Rejection & Support: - BTC recently bounced from a support level around 93,747 and surged back above 97,952. - This suggests a potential short-term recovery. 2. Potential Upside Target: - The chart highlights a **resistance zone around 102,500–104,049, which aligns with the descending trendline. - A move toward this level is likely if the current momentum continues. 3. Breakout or Rejection? - If BTC breaks 104,049 with strong volume, it could challenge 108,411. - Failure to break resistance could lead to another drop toward 93,747 or lower. Strategy Consideration - Short-term traders: Watch for a retest of 102,500–104,049 before deciding on a breakout trade or shorting the rejection. - Long-term perspective: If BTC holds above 93,747, bullish momentum might strengthen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
GBPUSD Channel Down top rejection calls for selling.GBPUSD is trading inside a Channel Down and the price is testing its top again for the 4th time in 1 week. This looks to us like December 17th, a rejection on the 0.5 Fib and MA200 (4h) that initiated a drop to the 1.5 Fib extension. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.2110 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) of the rejection series is also identical to December's. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Short
by TradingBrokersView
Crypto Hedge against Trumpism chaos, destruction and tariffsTrump is going to wreck havoc on the US economy which is why many are hedging against USD with crypto. Inflation, shortages and recession are coming in a few years. For awhile, Biden policy will prop up USD but once Trump policy kicks in and effects the government, expect food shortages from deportations, recession from tariffs and draconian policy and more wars with Putin unchecked. Chaos is coming in about year 2 into Trump presidency. Until then I expect positive Biden policies to continue to strengthen US dollar while smart hedgers long crypto the hedge against the chaos that is coming. When not if.
EIGHTCAP:ETHUSDLong
by ghosttrees
1
Gold (XAU/USD) Near Key Resistance – Watching for Bearish ReversThis chart shows XAU/USD (Gold) on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a potential sell opportunity around the weak high zone near $2,810-$2,820. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Confirmation Needed : - The price is approaching a resistance zone within an ascending channel. - A rejection or bearish confirmation (e.g., candle reversal, strong wick, or BOS downward) is needed before entering a short position. 2. Structure & Key Levels: - Break of Structure (BOS) signals previous bullish momentum. - Change of Character (ChOCH)** suggests a possible shift in trend. - The weak high at the upper channel trendline indicates a potential reversal. 3. Potential Downside Targets: - $2,797 – First key level of support. - $2,770-$2,750 – Stronger demand zones. - $2,741-$2,720 – Final deeper support area. Trading Plan: - Wait for bearish confirmation** before entering a sell. - A breakdown of intraday support near **$2,797** would strengthen the bearish case. - If price breaks above $2,820-$2,828, the bearish bias is invalidated.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1