Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Triangle BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2419.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 2446.50
2nd Resistance – 2462
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2390. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you.
DJ FXCM Index
AUD/USD To Start A New Upside Move?A Hawkish RBA stance, likely to hold rates for some time is a contrast to a FED looking at a softer landing.
This difference, particularly in recent times has shown fully. AUD strength has been sustained, whereas lower inflation data has supported the case for easing and brought USD weakness.
After lower highs and higher lows have formed a tight price range, you can now see AUD pushing to the upside, towards new shorts zones above.
Likely this will continue as sentiment influx does likewise. Short Zones noted above inline with previous short zones (see above eclipse).
Long zones are ideal on any falls.
Sell EURUSD Wedge BreaoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Rising Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0895, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0847
2nd Support – 1.0809
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0925. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EURUSD Going for a Higher High rejection. Time the sell.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern and as we mentioned on our previous idea (July 08, see chart below), is aiming for a Higher High target at 1.09500:
Since last week, the price is getting closer to our Target and the top of the 3-month Channel Up. Based on the pattern's symmetry and the proportions between the Bullish/ Bearish Legs, once we reach 1.09500 we will reverse to a sell, targeting 1.07250 (bottom of Channel Up).
Technically, once the 4H RSI forms Higher Lows, the new bottom is formed.
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USD/CAD - Triangle Breakout - Weekly ForecastThe USD/CAD pair on the H8 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3650.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3465
2nd Support – 1.3364
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3800. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you.
PPI News Trade ideaHere are the most important developments:
Inflation in America declined yesterday, less than expected, to 3.0%, which increased bets that the US Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates next September.
• This matter led to severe bleeding in the US dollar, and in return, gold shined, approaching its highest historical level.
• Brianna: This weakness of the US dollar will continue, provided that... the inflation data on American industrialists declines.
USDHUF Dip buy opportunity right below.The USDHUF pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 15 2023 High. It has seen 3 Bearish Legs so far and currently is on the 4th. All corrections reversed to a Buy when the 1D RSI hit or came very close to its Oversold barrier (30.00).
We are anticipating another such opportunity to target 370.000 (just below its 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the previous Lower Highs where priced).
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Crazy people making crazy claimsRecently news outlets have been reporting in 2 things about the US-Mexico relationship 1st is the super peso. 2nd is the lowering of interest rates in the USA. When looking at the news I saw multiple articles contradicting themselves. Saying things like "the mexican peso got stronger because of the rasing inflation" or as in this one where it says the "the advancment is atributed to the coments of Jerome Powell, which gave hope to rate cuts" as you can see in this one : elmanana.com.mx
Meanwhile you have this one which shows raising inflation in Mexico, which I have to admit it's true, the cost of living in mexico is rising. This means that every day the mexican peso es less able to afford goods or services.
www.msn.com
On the other hand with the united states' recent slight decrease in inflation has prompet the FED to be more inclined to realize a rate cut. This in order to boost the markets before the elections. This is very likely to excite the markets, as money from bonds will likely migrate to the stock market. Contrast this with Mexico where the central bank is claiming to reach it's inflation target by the end of 2025.
www.msn.com
For these people I have some basic economic facts they should be aware of. When you have rasing inflation your currency doen't apreciate it depreciates. Thats because you aren't able to afford buying as much with the same amount. Therefore if the inflation of you currency increases while the inflation on another currency decreases then the most likely outcome is that the decresing inflation currency will apreaciate in contrast to the other one. Aditionally if the US market begins to grow at a faster rate in contrast to the mexican market then the currency will also depreciate. Therefore saysing that the lowering of interest rates in the USA is good for the mexican peso is just insane.
xauusd analysis for 9/07/2024Last week our analyis on xauusd was perfect , we have predicted that if it cannot break the 2319-2312 zone then it will be bullish up to 2385.
Targets hit
2337 ✅✅✅
2347✅✅✅
2362✅✅✅
2385✅✅✅
our analyis for today:
it will be a ranging market from 2353 to 2371 , so buy the dip and sell the high.
▶️ if 2370 is broken then the market will fly upwards to 2385 2393 2404 2421 in extension
▶️ if 2353 support is broken then the market will fall towards
2342 2333 2321 2311 2306
.
we will make a detail analysis on fundamental technical and geopolitical scenarios.
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EURUSD - 4H Bullish SignsEURUSD has recently filled the gap from the start of the week and is showing signs of potential continuation of its bullish momentum.
Given this gap fill and the recent market structure, there is a likelihood that EURUSD may complete its second leg higher. This suggests that the pair could see further upward movement as it follows through on this bullish leg, with key levels above to watch for resistance.
USD/CAD Triangle BreakoutThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3630
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3592
2nd Support – 1.3572
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3650. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Thank you
USDNOK Buy opportunity above the 1D MA50.The USDNOK pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern for the past 2 years (since June 2022) and right now is consolidating right below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after holding the Higher Lows Zone.
Within this 2-year pattern, every time the price broke above the 1D MA50 following a bottom bounce, the new Bullish Leg was initiated. Our Target is 11.000 (just below the Lower Highs trend-line).
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Gbp/Usd (Wedge) Intraday Analysis The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2806, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2763
2nd Support – 1.2735
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2850. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
USDCAD 1D Analysis: Anticipating a Breakout📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We'll be focusing on the USDCAD pair in the 1D time frame.
⌛️ Long-term Range Box
In the 1D time frame, we observe a large, long-term range box that spans 664 days. This box has experienced a complete High Wave Cycle (HWC) range, which is confirmed by the flat SMA99, indicating minimal slope and nearly flat movement over a long period.
♟ Key Levels
Range Box Bottom: 1.31434
Range Box Top: 1.38725
Breaking either of these lines will likely initiate a new trend for the HWC.
Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) Support: 1.35973
MWC Resistance: 1.37805
🪤 Momentum Indicators
As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, momentum oscillators like RSI are less effective in range-bound markets. In this case, although the RSI broke the 43.14 support, the market did not gain bearish momentum because of the ranging condition. This exemplifies why RSI should not be heavily relied upon in such scenarios.
📉 Bearish Scenario
If a candle closes below the 1.35973 area, we can expect the price to move towards the bottom of the range box at 1.31434. This support is crucial and could push the price back to the top of the range.
📈 Bullish Scenario
Conversely, if the price breaks above 1.37805, it may move towards the top of the box at 1.38725. However, this move is less likely due to the weakness observed in the green candles, indicating weaker buyer strength.
🔍 Candle Analysis
Examining the candles shows that reaching the top of the range box takes significant time, with small green candles. Conversely, reaching the bottom of the box from the top happens quickly with strong red candles. Given the weak green candles in the latest upward move that didn't even reach the top of the box, the likelihood of a downward breakout is higher.
🎯 Target Levels
In case of a downward breakout, switching to the weekly time frame helps identify important levels:
First Target: 1.30183 (0.5 Fibonacci level)
Second Target: 1.27624
Third Target: 1.22926 (a very significant support for this pair)
📝 Conclusion
The USDCAD pair is currently trading within a long-term range, showing weak buyer momentum and stronger bearish tendencies. A breakout from this range, particularly to the downside, seems more probable given the current market conditions. Traders should watch key levels closely for confirmation and be ready to act accordingly once a breakout occurs.
🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
EURUSD Turning bullish short-term.The EURUSD pair closed last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 27 and this week is already using it as a Support to sustain further uptrend. Technically this could be the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg of the (blue) Channel Up that started on the week of June 24.
On the long-term, the pair has been trading within a fierce Triangle consolidation for exactly 1 year. The technical Support level has been the Support Zone that started back in January 2023 and the Resistance level, is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) / 1M MA50 cluster.
Back to the Triangle's and Channel Up dynamics, last week's 1W MACD Bullish Cross formation and the bullish break-out of the 1W RSI above its Lower Highs trend-line, support being bullish on the short-term.
We will take a more modest/ cautious approach and will 'only' target 1.09500 (which is the crossroads of the Channel Up Higher Highs and Triangle Lower Highs trend-lines).
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USDTRY Inflationary uptrend still intact but buy on the right leThe USDTRY pair has almost doubled since our last buy signal (October 27 2022, see chart below):
This pair remains one of the most efficient long-term trades long-term as its inflationary uptrend remains intact. We won't turn buyers again however before a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test or a neutral 1W RSI (less than 50.00). Our next Target is 40.0000 (again on the 10-year Higher Highs trend-line).
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Dollar Index (DXY): Very Bearish Outlook
Dollar Index leaves multiple bearish clues on a daily.
The market broke and closed below a support line of a rising wedge pattern,
then the price violated a key horizontal support.
Looks like sellers will keep dominating.
Next support - 104.5
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XAU/USD H1 Channel Formation The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent formation of well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. OANDA:XAUUSD
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2357, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2328
2nd Support – 2309
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2370. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Sell GBP/USD Rising Wedge BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2755, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2680
2nd Support – 1.2637
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2785. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
GBPUSD May Keep Growing! Here is Why 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed above a key daily structure resistance.
The broken structure turned into support.
Retesting the broken structure, the price formed a double bottom
pattern and successfully violated its neckline.
It confirms the strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Goal - 1.2795
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