SPY May Rally Above $540 Before You Know It...My research continues to support more Bullish trending for the SPY and other US major indexes.
I keep seeing others propose a market crash scenario - week after week... after week.
I certainly hope you were not following their suggestions too closely - because the SPY has rallied more than 7% from the recent lows. That's a lot of losses piling up for anyone caught on the short side of the markets right now.
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Get ready for a potentially explosive move in the SPY - targeting $545+... possibly rallying above $560 before the end of June 2024.
DJ FXCM Index
USDJPY: Bullish short term. Attention at the top of the Channel.USDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.858, MACD = 0.730, ADX = 52.633) and is rebounding after almost the second 1D MA50 test in 2 weeks. The pair is capitalizing on the bullish momentum of the 1 year Channel Up but this rebound could be the last before a correction, as the price is very close to the HH top trendline. Our goal is still that top (TP = 160.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURUSD: Overbought on 1D presenting a sell opportunity.EURUSD is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.115, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 33.336) with the price approaching the top/ LH trendline of the long term Channel Down. It is already past the 0.618 Fibonacci level, where the last LH got rejected but the 1D RSI is right where the tops of December 27th 2023 and March 7th 2024 where formed. This is a solid low risk sell opportunity, aiming for the next LL on a 1.236 Fib extension (TP = 1.05550).
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USD/CADHello again!
As you liked the previous analysis and signal, here comes the second one. Please try to be patient and wait for confirmation before entering at the right place. This way, you won't have to place your stop loss far away from the entry point.
The most important thing in trading is having a plan and always aiming for the win. However, you should never underestimate the market, as it can go in any direction possible. There are no "have to" or "had to" in the market.
Thank me later!
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom.
I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
XAUUSD Demand and Supply Zone | 4H TimeframeXAUUSD Demand and Supply Zone | 4H Timeframe
HEY Traders ! hope you are doing well
- This prediction is based on Technical Analysis
- Supply and Demand Zone path elaborated
- Gold touched the supply zone and clearly rejected to now in a bearish circle
- Usd High Impact news are Waiting to moving gold volatile
- Our Target and Our Trend as Shown in our Analysis
- We decided to stick with our idea until gold touched the points 2350-2345-2340.00
- Stick with Trend
- Don't be opposite from Trend
GBPUSD: Sell this 2nd 1D MA50 test.GBPUSD is practically neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.00, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 28.566) and testing the 1D MA50 for the 2nd time since May 3rd. Last time it got rejected emphatically and being exactly on the LH trendline, there is very low risk in selling on the current market price. The target is a little over the S2 level (TP = 1.2220).
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USDHUF Sell when the 1D MA200 breaks.The USDHUF pair had a bearish break-out on our last analysis (October 13 2023, see chart below) and after hitting our 345.700 Sell Target, it rebounded:
The rebound formed a Channel Up, which again failed and a new downtrend has been confirmed after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue turned-line) again. Once the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks as well, we will have a bearish break-out confirmation, similar to October - November 2023.
Our Target is Support 2 at 342.1565.
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💡USDJPY: Analysis May 14USDJPY increased yesterday, and bar D1 yesterday closed beyond the previous Inside bar pattern, creating a breakout to establish a new high, continuing the push to the bottom. This breakout could add further upside momentum to USDJPY D1. Structurally, USDJPY D1 is still moving sideways in the main price increase in D1.
USDJPY H1 broke out of the accumulation price range to set a new high price peak, returning to the short-term upward price trend. However, right now USDJPY H1 is starting to be overbought - overbought - because the price has exceeded the upper boundary. At this time, you should not buy to chase, but should wait for the recovery period to decline before buying USDJPY H1. The buy zone for the day is the round number 156.00 + the upward sloping trend line at the bottom. If this zone is broken down, USDJPY H1 will weaken and serve as a basis for the idea of waiting to sell later.
H1 trend: USDJPY increases.
Today's trading idea: Buy USDJPY.
HG Futures, Copper's Potential Rise: Monthly, Weekly, Daily.Monthly is winding up for a big drop or huge jump.
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily shows price winding up potentially the rest of the year. So I will look towards year end for the fireworks, that will decide if our pent up momentum will release upwards or downwards.
My gut says inflation will send it upward in the near future.
EURUSD 1st 4H GoldenCross since February! Breakout or rejection?The EURUSD pair completed on Friday its first Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame since February 29. Technically that is a bullish pattern but we are only willing to treat it as a buy opportunity if the pair closes a 4H candle above the Lower Highs trend-line).
If it does, we will most likely have a bullish break-out like March 06 towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level or the top of the Channel Down. This is at least what the symmetrical Bullish Leg of the Channel Down did following the Feb 29 4H Golden Cross and topped on March 08. In that case our Target will be 1.08350 (Fib 0.618).
Until that 4H candle closing, we will be selling the Lower Highs rejection, targeting 1.06550 (just above Support 1), which is what happened on March 22. Notice that the 4H RSI pattern is more similar currently to March 13.
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AUDUSD Medium-term Sell OpportunityThe AUDUSD pair followed our previous signal with great precision (March 19, see chart below), hitting the 0.63750 Target:
Following that, the price rebounded and has so far been rejected yet again on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That is the strongest medium-term Resistance and a symmetrical sell level where the similar sequence of June - July 2023 Double Topped and got rejected even below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we take a similar bearish stance and take this opportunity to sell again and target 0.63450 (1.235 Fib ext).
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USDJPY at an important barrier#USDJPY EASYMARKETS:USDJPY
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USDNOK One of the best sells in the market.The USDNOK pair has formed a cyclical top on the 1D time-frame and is currently pulling back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been supporting since March 14 2024. If broken, we expect a a 2nd dip to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well and as it pierces through the (green) Ichimoku Cloud, stage a dead-cat-bounce back at its top and the 1D MA50.
That should give way to the 2nd part of the Bearish Leg towards the 2-year Higher Lows Zone. Our target is on the top of that Zone at 10.400. Take profit earlier if the 1D RSI breaks below the 30.00 oversold barrier before the price reaches 10.400.
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USDCHF Channel Up intact. Aim higher.The USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 28 2023 Low. In the past 2 weeks, it has been forming its 2nd Bearish Leg that almost touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been supporting since February 02.
As long as we close 1D candles above it, we stay bullish, targeting 0.94200 (marginally below Resistance 2). Since however the recent Higher High was priced just below Resistance 1 (the October 03 2023 High), we will turn bearish (and take the buy's loss) if the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is what happened on November 14 2023. In that case, our Target will be 0.87350 (Support 1).
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Sell USDJPY Channel BreakoutThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling USD/JPY) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 155.60 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones:
154.74: This represents the first level of support within the channel.
154.27: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 156.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Outlook After News 💵
Today's US fundamentals are very bearish for Dollar Index.
After a test of a key daily horizontal resistance,
the price formed a strong bearish imbalance
and violated a support line of a rising wedge pattern on a 4H time frame.
I think that the fall may continue.
Next support - 104.9
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Shorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker DollarShorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker Dollar, But Beware the Dragons
The DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies. With rising global tensions and a potential shift in global power dynamics, the question lingers: is it time to short the DXY, betting on a weakening dollar? Let's explore the arguments for and against this strategy.
The Case for Shorting DXY: A Multi-Pronged Approach
• America's Shrinking Lead: The US, while still a dominant economic force, faces challenges. Its manufacturing base has shrunk, its national debt is ballooning, and infrastructure crumbles. These factors could erode confidence in the dollar's long-term stability.
• The Rise of the Rest: China's economic power is undeniable. The yuan's internationalization efforts are gaining traction, potentially chipping away at the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Other economies like the Eurozone are also maturing, offering alternatives.
• A Concerted Effort: Imagine a scenario where the US's major allies, concerned about American dominance, decide to weaken the dollar. This could involve measures like central banks diversifying reserves away from the US or pegging their currencies to a basket that excludes the dollar. While a hypothetical scenario, it can't be entirely dismissed.
China: The Dragon in the Room
China's displeasure with a weakening dollar is a significant risk factor. A weaker dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive, hindering their economic growth. China holds a significant amount of US Treasuries, and a devalued dollar would erode the value of those holdings. This could lead to China dumping US Treasuries, further weakening the dollar in a vicious cycle.
Beyond China: Other Considerations
• US Response: The US Federal Reserve has tools at its disposal to counter a weakening dollar. Raising interest rates, for instance, could entice investors back to the dollar for higher yields.
• Global Instability: A devalued dollar could create global economic turmoil as countries scramble to adjust exchange rates and inflation spikes. This could be particularly damaging for developing economies.
• Unpredictable Markets: Shorting any asset is inherently risky, and the currency market is especially volatile. Unforeseen events can drastically alter currency valuations.
So, Should You Short DXY?
The decision to short DXY depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Here's a breakdown:
• For Aggressive Investors: If you believe in a long-term decline of the US dollar and have a high tolerance for risk, shorting DXY could be a potential strategy. However, careful risk management is crucial.
• For Cautious Investors: The potential consequences of a weakening dollar, particularly China's reaction, are significant. It might be wiser to stick with less volatile investments or consider options strategies that limit your downside risk.
Alternative Strategies
Instead of shorting DXY directly, consider these alternatives:
• Invest in a Diversified Currency Basket: Spread your risk by investing in a basket of major currencies, potentially benefiting from a weakening dollar while mitigating some of the risk.
• Look to Emerging Markets: If you believe in the rise of other economic powers, consider investing in their currencies or stocks poised to benefit from a weaker dollar.
The Final Bite
The future of the US dollar is uncertain. A combination of factors could lead to its decline. However, the potential consequences, particularly China's response, are significant risks to consider. Carefully weigh the arguments before taking a short position on DXY. Remember, diversification and a measured approach are key in navigating the ever-fluctuating currency markets.