Sell EUR/USD Bearish FlagThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0500, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0442
2nd Support – 1.040
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DJ FXCM Index
EURUSD Inverse Head and Shoulders to 1.08500EURUSD has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, confirming the bottom of the long term bearish sequence.
The right shoulders is about to be completed and there is no better time to buy than now.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08500 (marginally under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension)
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed above its MA on Nov 25th, confirming the transition from long term bearish to a bullish trend. This supports our 2.0 Fib target.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USD/JPY: Fundamental Analysis and Potential UpsideUSD/JPY: Fundamental Analysis and Potential Upside
1️⃣ Monetary Policy Divergence:
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to bolster the USD, driven by strong economic data such as robust GDP growth and resilient labor markets. Inflation pressures remain persistent, keeping rate cuts off the table.
The Bank of Japan’s dovish policies—including negative interest rates and yield curve control—keep the yen under pressure. Although recent inflation data has sparked speculation about potential shifts, the BOJ remains committed to its accommodative stance for now.
2️⃣ Interest Rate Differentials:
The widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates attracts investors to the USD, encouraging carry trades that favor the dollar over the yen.
3️⃣ Rising U.S. Treasury Yields:
Higher U.S. bond yields make the dollar more attractive, amplifying upward momentum in USD/JPY.
4️⃣ Risk Sentiment:
Global markets currently exhibit improved risk appetite, which weighs on the safe-haven yen. However, shifts in geopolitical or financial stability concerns could reverse this dynamic.
📊 Outlook:
USD/JPY's upward trajectory is fueled by strong fundamentals, but traders should remain vigilant for signs of BOJ intervention or major shifts in global risk sentiment.
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ETHUSD 1HR OUTLOOK The market has effectively taken the sell-side liquidity, showcasing precise price action. This move aligns with expectations, as liquidity sweeps often set the stage for potential reversals or continuations. Traders should monitor key levels closely to anticipate the next directional move. Stay alert and trade with caution!
XAU/USD (Gold) - H1 - Triangle BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2652
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 2711
2nd Resistance – 2748
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US Dollar index feels tiredIntraday Update: The US Dollar index has a rising trend line at 105.90's, and the 50% retracement of the last leg move higher is at 105.80 and the 127% ext at 105.52 will remains key support. If broken, we should see a move stronger move lower of the trend higher since late September.
BTC sell around 95. target 91.500 If you're considering a **sell around 95,000 USD** for BTC with a **target of 91,500 USD**, this strategy implies you expect the price to decline further. Here's how you can refine your trade plan: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
---
### **1. Entry Zone Analysis**
- **Sell Trigger**: Selling at **95,000 USD** suggests it's significant, likely near a minor resistance or after a pullback.
- Confirm with:
- **Candle Patterns**: Look for bearish patterns like shooting stars or bearish engulfing around 95,000.
- **Volume**: A spike in selling volume near this level supports a bearish case.
---
### **2. Downside Target: 91,500 USD**
- **Support Zone**: Ensure that 91,500 corresponds to a prior support level, such as:
- A key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% or 78.6% retracement).
- Previous consolidation or bounce area.
- Check for overlapping support from moving averages (e.g., 50 MA or 200 MA on lower timeframes).
-- **3. Indicators for Confirmation**
- **RSI**: If it's trending downward or approaching oversold territory (below 50 but above 30), it confirms bearish momentum.
- **MACD**: A bearish crossover and divergence with price action would reinforce the move.
- **Volume Analysis**: Increasing sell volume during breakdowns confirms strength in the move.
-4. Risk Management**
- **Stop-Loss**: Place a stop-loss above the recent swing high or resistance zone (e.g., 95,500 or 96,000) to cap losses.
- **Risk-to-Reward**: With a target of 91,500 and an entry around 95,000, you're aiming for a 3.5% move. Ensure your stop-loss level offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2 or better).
---
5. Monitor Key Levels**
- If BTC breaks below 93,000 or 92,500, these could act as interim support. Be prepared for a bounce or adjust your stop-loss to lock in profits.
---
Would you like a deeper analysis or assistance in charting these levels visually?
USD/JPY - H1 - Bearish Flag The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 150.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 149.20
2nd Support – 148.50
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Thank you.
GBPUSD Channel Up on (1h) bottomed.The GBPUSD pair is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price made contact with its bottom today and is giving a buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.2800 (+1.50% rise, same as the last bullish wave).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) hit the same level as on November 26th. That was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up.
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Euro plummets amid tariff threats and political turmoilEUR/USD has dropped over 0.6% to $1.04607, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in the Eurozone. In November, the euro experienced a 3% decline, its worst monthly performance in over a year, raising concerns about parity with the US dollar. Trump's recent threats to impose 100% tariffs on countries moving away from the US dollar have further pressured the euro. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank's dovish signals, including potential rate cuts of up to 50 basis points in December, add to the euro's challenges. On the other hand, the US dollar index has risen nearly 1% to 106.7, bolstered by strong economic indicators like the ISM Manufacturing PMI. As traders digest these developments, the EUR/USD may continue to face downward pressure. Share your insights on how these factors could shape the pair's trajectory in the coming weeks.
EURUSD: Inverse Head and Shoulders buy signal.EURUSD is bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 38.974, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 37.510) as it continues to trade near the bottom of the long term Channel Down. At the same time its low made contact with the bottom of the Bearish Megaphone. Technically that formed the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The standard target for this pattern is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 1.08630).
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Bullish Catalysts for EUR/USDTechnical Analysis
Monthly Chart:
The weakening of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) creates a favorable environment for bullish movements in EUR/USD. On the monthly chart, the euro is positioned near a significant support zone that aligns with a strong buying area. With the dollar's liquidity grab above 107.348 signaling further downside potential, EUR/USD is well-positioned for upward momentum.
Daily Chart:
The daily chart confirms a strong bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows indicating sustained upward pressure. The recent weakness in the DXY aligns with this bullish trend, reinforcing the potential for continued euro strength. This week's price action suggests buyers remain firmly in control, and the technical setup supports a move toward higher targets.
Fundamental Analysis
Impact of the U.S. Dollar Weakness:
The euro stands to benefit significantly from the current bearish outlook on the DXY. With the Federal Reserve showing hesitancy toward further rate cuts due to inflation concerns and strong labor market conditions, short-term volatility is likely. However, any signs of labor market weakening or inflation stability could lead to aggressive rate cuts, further weakening the dollar and supporting EUR/USD upside.
Key Catalysts:
This upcoming week, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate data are expected to provide critical directional cues:
Expected Increase in Unemployment: If the unemployment rate increases as forecasted, this would add downward pressure on the DXY, fueling strong upside potential for EUR/USD.
Nonfarm Payroll Volatility: Regardless of the outcome, NFP data typically injects significant volatility into the market. Even in scenarios where unemployment data does not meet expectations, the euro could still reach key targets due to the strong technical bullish structure and high demand at monthly zones.
Summary and Outlook
Technical and Fundamental Alignment:
EUR/USD is in a prime position for further upside given:
The bearish outlook on the DXY, signaling continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar.
The bullish structure on the EUR/USD daily chart, which supports continued buying pressure.
Key catalysts this week, including unemployment and NFP data, which are likely to favor euro strength under expected scenarios.
Key Factors to Monitor:
The actual results of unemployment and payroll data.
Fed commentary and market sentiment on potential rate adjustments.
Any unexpected geopolitical or macroeconomic developments affecting the eurozone or the U.S.
Price Expectations:
Short-Term Target: The bullish structure supports a move toward a significant monthly resistance zone where strong buy-side liquidity resides.
Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If dollar weakness persists and unemployment increases, EUR/USD could see a strong bullish move extending beyond this resistance, possibly forming new highs.
With the DXY weakening and structural alignment in favor of the euro, buying EUR/USD remains a favorable strategy this week, supported by both technical and fundamental factors.
eurusd next move. fvgEUR/USD has taken out the monthly low liquidity. Now, we wait for the FVG to be hit. As you can see, there has already been a break of structure. The expectation is that EUR/USD will rise again toward 1.800. If you take this trade, it offers an easy 7.5 risk-to-reward (RR) ratio.
EURUSD Once in a year buy opportunity about to run out.Last week (November 25, see chart below) we gave an ultimate buy call on the EURUSD pair as the price pierced through the 1.5 year Channel Down and immediately rebounded:
As you can see, that was the absolute bottom of the pattern, its technical Lower Low, which happened last time more than 1 year ago, on October 03 2023. The 1-week rally that followed is on a pull-back today as the new week opened and based on the previous two Lower Lows, this might be the final one, i.e. the last buy opportunity we will get before multi-week rally.
More specifically and as far as the October 2023 bottom is concerned, we are on the 1W RSI rebound similar to the week of October 23 2023. At the same time, this matches being on the 1W MACD's 2nd straight pink histogram bar. This indicates that this could be the last red week before the rally.
Our Target remains intact at 1.08765, exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the November 2023 Fib test).
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OVER BTC PLANBitcoin's trajectory seems to be holding steady, defying expectations of a significant drop. Rather than falling drastically, it appears poised to consolidate within a stable range, likely centered around the $90K mark. Although a push beyond the $100K threshold may not be imminent, its current position reflects resilience, indicating that BTC might remain within this middle ground as the market seeks its next major catalyst..
USD/CHF - H4 - Wedge BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. FX:USDCHF
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8689
2nd Support – 0.8619
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Thank you.
USDJPY Bearish ContinuationWe are currently looking for bearish continuations to keep selling and following the higher timeframe trend.
Following the 4H timeframe down to the 1H, we have 2 potential areas of interest we can have a minimal risk high reward trade.
AS price continues to accumilate into our areas I will keep updating for possible trade entries.
Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis - A Deeper Correction Approaching?Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis - Is a Deeper Correction Approaching?
Since September 2024, the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen significantly, gaining 8.2%, marking its highest appreciation in months. This upward momentum has been fueled by positive economic indicators, increasing demand for dollars. Recently, the DXY reached the 107.00 mark, its highest resistance level since 2022. However, after hitting this point, the DXY exhibited a false breakout, suggesting potential buyer fatigue.
Currently, the price has dipped slightly to 105.93, with the possibility of further retracement towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 104.92 before continuing its upward trend.
Buying Potential
If the price returns to the range between 104.92 (38.2% Fibonacci) and 103.96 (50% Fibonacci) and shows a bullish reversal, it could indicate a continuation of the upward movement, presenting a buying opportunity. Key confluence points for the DXY include:
Horizontal support around 104.92, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement.
The overall upward trend since September.
The 50-period moving average on the daily chart, which may coincide with this support.
These factors suggest that if the price reaches the support zone, buyers could re-enter, pushing the price back towards recent highs around 106.97, potentially targeting 108.00.
Potential Targets
First Target: Retest the high at 107.00.
Secondary Target: Extend to 109.30, contingent on a confirmed breakout.
Alternative Bearish Scenario
If the price fails to hold at 104.92 and drops below the 50% retracement at 103.96, the index may decline further. In this scenario, the next significant support is at 102.99, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This decline would indicate a deeper correction while still within a generally bullish framework.
However, breaching this level could negate the short-term bullish outlook and push the index down to 100.00, a key psychological support level.
Warning Signs for a Possible Sell Opportunity
A daily close below 103.96, suggesting weakening buyer support.
A sustained drop below 102.99, indicating a shift in the prevailing trend.
Summary
The DXY currently exhibits a predominantly bullish structure but is undergoing a natural correction after hitting a crucial resistance level. The area between 104.92 and 103.96 presents a potential buying opportunity, provided there are clear signs of a price reversal. Monitoring the specified support levels is crucial, as significant breaches could undermine the bullish scenario and lead to deeper declines.
Disclaimer
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Dollar Index (DXY): Time to Fill the Gap?!
I guess you saw this gap down that was formed this night on Dollar Index.
Analysing a price action today, it looks like the market is preparing to fill it.
I see a nice bearish trap and inducement followed by a bullish imbalance
on an hourly.
I think that the index will go up to the gap opening level soon.
Goal - 106.11
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Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 106.18
1st Support: 105.27
1st Resistance: 107.04
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD/USD Analysis 1HThe price has broken above the resistance zone in gray and is now forming a triangle pattern.
✅ My idea:
If the price continues to rise, the first target is the red resistance zone, followed by the second resistance in the green zone.
Using the measurement from the bottom of the triangle to its top, the green zone aligns with the projected target.
🚨 Plan:
Wait for confirmation before entering to avoid false moves. Manage your risk with appropriate stop-loss levels.
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GBP/USD - H4 Chart - Rising Wedge BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Rising Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Days.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.2695, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2862
2nd Support – 1.3006
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
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Thank you.