BUYERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THEIR RESILIENCE IN US100Buyers keep dominating the market after price dropped lower to 17977. A buy opportunity is envisaged from the current market price.
Technically, we also identify the formation of symmetrical triangle structure which Indicate a possible buy opportunity after the retest is completed.
DJ FXCM Index
EURUSD on crossroads. Bullish or Bearish?The EURUSD pair hit our 1.07250 Target of our March 27 analysis (see chart below) before the current 1-week rebound:
Right now it is giving mixed signals as the latest rebound made the 1D RSI break and stay above its MA trend-line, which is a pattern it following on the February - March Bullish Leg. At the same time though, the 2024 Channel Down is intact but if the RSI break-out prevails, we expect a new (dotted) Channel Up to emerge.
Obviously the pair is on critical crossroads as far as the long-term trend is concerned. Our plan is to buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back and target 1.09815 (Resistance 1). We are only willing to take the loss if the price breaks below the Symmetrical Support Zone, and sell targeting 1.05500 (-4.00% decline from the previous Lower High, similar to the Channel's first Bearish Leg.
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NZDUSD trading zoneUse of the Fed's international reverse repo facility - which allows international institutions to deposit money and earn interest - has increased by about $32 billion in the past three weeks, reaching a three-month high of $365 billion.
The USD continued to decline as the market maintained caution, pushing up EUR, GBP, and AUD. Currently, traders are waiting for the upcoming interest rate policy meetings of major central banks.
EURUSD Bearish Megaphone. Will it break out?EURUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone with the price very close to its top.
This is still a sell unless it crosses over the top of the pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses over the top of the Megaphone.
Targets:
1. 1.09800 (Resistance A).
2. 1.07000 (Fibonacci 0).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed over its MA trendline, which is what happened when the last Bullish Leg of the Rectangle started.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USD - my bias is still up the upsideHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
technicals wise still healthy to go up, for majors i will be looking to go on short. Especially so watching on Nzdusd.
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
next week to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
150.8 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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DXY Analysis before NFP(4/5/2024)In our last analysis, we had anticipated a minor correction in DXY but the correction has exceeded our expectations.
Right now, because of selling pressure in DXY, the momentum has gone weak. Plus, the market is waiting for NFP/Unemployment news. So we are expecting a correction in DXY to the 103.7 zone before going up.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
❌we will soon have a correction❌It is very likely that we will soon have a correction to the targets of 149.420 and 148.000 in this currency pair. Pay attention that this analysis is in the daily time frame and the trigger to enter the trade is the breaking of the 150.00 level down in the 1-hour time frame.
EURUSD Heavy rejection on the 1day MA100.The EURUSD pair got rejected today exactly on the 1day MA100, touching it for the first time since March 21st.
That took place very close to the Falling Resistance of the Bearish Megaphone pattern, which adds more selling pressure on it.
The ssell signal will be confirmed once the 4hour RSI crosses under its MA trend line.
Sell and target 1.07230 (top of Support Zone A).
Previous chart:
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Sell USDCAD Channel BreakoutThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 1.3580. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones:
1.3530: This represents the first level of support within the channel.
1.3511: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 1.3590. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
NZDUSD: Short term buy opportunityNZDUSD has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.582, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 53.918) as up until two days ago it was on the 2nd Bearish Wave of the 2024 Channel Down. This wave appears to have ended as the price hit and rebounded on the S1 level, posting so far two very strong green 1D candles. The pair may make one more Lower Low as on February 5th but shouldn't be much lower than the S1 level. We are aiming at a similar +2.48% rise to the LH (TP = 0.60850).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan Ahead of FED 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
151.0 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Yen Strengthens Following Bank of Japan InterventionThe yen has appreciated recently after the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market. This is a significant development with potential implications for the foreign exchange market.
Considering Going Long on JPY?
A stronger yen could be an attractive opportunity for traders looking to go long on the currency. However, it's important to conduct thorough research and consider factors like:
• Market Volatility: Currency markets can be volatile, and the yen's rise may not be sustained.
• Overall Investment Strategy: This move should align with your broader investment goals and risk tolerance.
•
Conduct Your Own Research
Before making any investment decisions, research the yen's future outlook and analyze potential risks and rewards.
We're Here to Help
If you have any questions or would like to discuss this development further, please don't hesitate to contact us via the comments.
XAUUSD - GOLD 1hrSimple trading:
M - Pattern "Double top"
We look to sell gold for a correction. Gold is respecting the trend, but if the price fails to break above 2265, it could see a possible downside after its massive bullish impulse.
When U.S. bond yields rise:
- Gold prices might decrease as investors find bonds more attractive due to higher returns.
EURUSD formed the 1st 1D Death Cross since September!The EURUSD pair quickly hit our 1.07250 Target, which we set on our most recent sell signal (March 27, see chart below):
Moving out to the 1D time-frame we can see that this is the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern that started at the beginning of the year and we are only halfway through it. Also the pair just completed the first Death Cross on the 1D time-frame since September 29 2023. That is a strong enough sell signal on its own.
As long as the price keeps closing 1D candles below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will remain bearish, expecting a new Lower Low on this 3-month Channel Down. The previous was formed on a -4.00% decline, so a repeat of that targets 1.05500.
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USDCHF in 2023 with a rather erratic downtrendIn Q1, two central banks that have previously used negative interest rates made surprising decisions. The Bank of Japan exited negative rates, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut their benchmark interest rate. The SNB may continue to ease further due to low inflation forecasts and weak growth. In contrast, the Fed wants more confidence in consistent inflation towards the 2% target before taking action.
CONTRASTING FUNDAMENTALS PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR OANDA:USDCHF IN Q2
The SNB's rate cut may prompt other central banks to do the same. While the Swiss Franc may face currency depreciation, Switzerland's low inflation justifies the decision to cut rates.
The strong franc makes Swiss exports less competitive than goods from countries with a weaker exchange rate. Switzerland can handle any imported inflation resulting from the rate cut due to low inflation levels, but it is unlikely to be significant given the small 25 basis point cut.
CENTRAL BANK POLICY COULD EXTEND BULLISH OANDA:USDCHF SETUPS IN Q2
Market expectations foresee a strong chance (78%) of another 25-bps rate cut from the SNB in June and if the likelihood of that second cut gains momentum, perhaps on softer inflation or weaker GDP, the franc may depreciate further as markets price in such an outcome.
The Fed maintained their projection of three rate cuts for 2024. The Fed's dot plot, based on the median value of 19 estimates, suggests hesitation in easing financial conditions due to strong US data. If the data remains strong, the dollar may be supported in Q2.
THE TRADE: LONG OANDA:USDCHF UPON IMPROVED ENTRY POINT
USD/CHF spent most of 2023 trending lower in a rather choppy fashion, but at the turn of the new year fortunes reversed. The pair traded higher and eventually broke above trendline resistance on the back of the surprise cut by the SNB. The guidance to this trade suggests looking to enter the developing uptrend at a better level due to the sharp ascent at the end of Q1. Another sign to wait for a better entry level appears via the rejection of higher prices at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. A move back down to 0.8829 would reveal a retest of trendline support (prior resistance), whereafter, a bullish continuation may provide a higher probability trade.
A level to consider includes 0.9085 which serves as a tripwire for continued bullish price action. Thereafter, upside targets comprise of 0.9245 and 0.9473. A retest of the late 2023 low would invalidate the bullish setup.
AUDUSD: Wait to buy this dip.AUDUSD is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.176, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 34.265) as it entered a Channel Down similar to those of August - October 2023 and April - May 2023. That is why we are expecting a bullish reveral the closer we get to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. As long as the 1D RSI doesn't break into the oversold zone (<30.000), we will buy that dip and target the LH trendline (TP = 0.6700).
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