DJ FXCM Index
USDJPY | Yen Futures Weekly FOREX Forecast: Feb 3-7thThis forecast is for the upcoming week, Feb 3 - 7th.
The Yen has been week for an extended amount of time, underperforming against the USD. But the tide might be changing, this NFP week. As the USD is reacting to a HTF selling zone over the last couple of weeks, the Yen is finding buyers during that same time. This could continue for the near term.
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Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 3 - 7th.This is an outlook for the week of Feb 3 - 7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is reacting to the Monthly and Weekly Supply Zone. The week before last was an aggressive bearish candle, followed by last week retracement. Although the week ended with a bullish close, it inside Supply. We could see price resume the bearish reaction to the HTF Supply this week. This could mean the majors may see bullish weeks against the USD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold wait retracement to target 2850We probably will see a retracement to 50% fibs before getting back to the ATH.
With US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Feb 3 we may have an indice above the forecast of 49.3 that may enforce the retracement to around 2760$. If 2760$ holds and prove a strengh in long position it could be a confirmation of this scenario.
On the other hand if Manufacturing PMI goes less than forecast we maybe have a bounce on the 38.2 Fib around 2780 $ to reach the 2850 Target.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
The Loonie's Fate: Can CAD Hold Against USD?The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been losing ground against the U.S. dollar (USD) for years, and this chart suggests that weakness could continue. Since 2015, every time CAD has tried to strengthen, it has failed to break below 1.20, showing a long-term downward trend.
USD/CAD at 1.47: A Critical Turning Point
Right now, the exchange rate is sitting at 1.4527, just below a key resistance level (1.47). Historically, this level has acted as a ceiling where CAD has struggled to hold its value.
Two Possible Outcomes:
1. If CAD Holds Below 1.47 → Potential for Stabilization
A rejection at 1.47 would mean CAD could regain some strength, at least in the short term.
This could happen if the Bank of Canada holds rates steady while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals rate cuts. If USD weakens, CAD could stabilize around 1.39 or lower.
2. If USD/CAD Breaks Above 1.47 → CAD Could Sink Further
A breakout above 1.47 would mean further CAD weakness, and we could see 1.60 or even 1.80 in the long run. This would be bad news for Canadian consumers, as inflation would likely surge.
The Bank of Canada might be forced to act aggressively, keeping interest rates high for longer to stabilize the loonie.
The Big Picture: Could We See 1.80?
The chart suggests that if USD/CAD breaks out above 1.47, the next long-term move could reach 1.80, which would mean an additional 21% devaluation of CAD against USD.
What That Would Mean for Canadians:
More Expensive Imports: A weaker CAD means higher costs for goods priced in USD—electronics, vehicles, food, and even vacations in the U.S.
Higher Inflation Risk: Imported goods would become more expensive, keeping inflation high and making it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates.
Potential Rate Hikes: If CAD weakens too much, the BoC may need to raise interest rates again to stabilize the currency, which could keep borrowing costs high.
What Canadians Should Watch
Oil Prices: Canada is a commodity-based economy, and higher oil prices typically strengthen CAD (since Canada is a major oil exporter). If oil prices rise, CAD could get some strength back, slowing the decline.
Bank of Canada vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: If the Bank of Canada keeps rates high while the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, CAD could strengthen. But if the BoC cuts rates too early, CAD could fall further.
Global Market Sentiment: In a risk-off environment, investors flock to USD for safety, weakening CAD. If risk appetite returns, CAD could stabilize.
What Canadians Can Do to Prepare
If USD/CAD Breaks 1.47 and Moves Higher:
Hedge Against a Weak CAD: Consider holding some USD-denominated assets (U.S. stocks, USD savings).
Lock in Loan Rates Now: A weakening CAD could keep rates high longer—fixed-rate mortgages may offer stability.
Invest in Inflation-Protected Assets: If CAD weakens, commodities, energy stocks, and foreign investments could help hedge against inflation.
Buy USD for Future U.S. Expenses: If you travel to the U.S. frequently, it might make sense to buy USD now before CAD weakens further.
If USD/CAD Gets Rejected at 1.47 and CAD Recovers:
Monitor U.S. Rate Cuts: If the Fed cuts rates, USD may weaken, giving CAD a chance to rebound.
Be Ready for Short-Term Relief, But Plan for Long-Term Weakness: Even if CAD strengthens in the short term, the long-term trend still suggests CAD is vulnerable.
Final Thoughts: The Loonie’s Fate Rests on 1.47
Right now, CAD is at a make-or-break level.
If 1.47 holds, CAD may see short-term strength. If 1.47 breaks, CAD could face a significant decline, making life more expensive for Canadians.
With inflation, interest rates, and oil prices all playing a role, this is a crucial time to pay attention to macroeconomic trends, as the next move in USD/CAD will impact Canadians' cost of living, mortgages, and investments.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
USDCNY Bearish Leg confirmed after this 1D MA50 failure.The USDCNY pair has technically topped as it broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and upon a re-test, it got rejected. This test-and-fail pattern is seen during both previous Bearish Legs in the past 15 months.
Even the 1D RSI is identical among all three fractals and they both ended up declining by roughly -3.60%. As a result, we turn bearish here on a confirmed break-out signal, targeting 7.0800.
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Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Chart Analysis: - **Breakout Confirmation**Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Chart Analysis:**
- **Breakout Confirmation:** Price has broken above a key resistance zone, indicating bullish momentum.
- **Retest Zone:** A potential retest of the breakout area may confirm support before continuation.
- **Targets:**
- **1st Target:** 2,772 zone.
- **Last Target:** 2,783–2,784 zone.
- **Market Structure:**
- Multiple **Break of Structure (BOS)** and **Change of Character (ChoCh)** signals bullish strength.
- Rounded retest pattern supports a continuation towards the targets.
- **Key Watchpoint:** If price holds above the breakout zone, the bullish move remains valid; otherwise, a failed retest could lead to a pullback.
gold on sideways move#XAUUSD can retrace back below 2759 or more but firstly we await 2770.99 on double breakout before selling, TP 2759-2750, SL 2780. Now above 2787.57 price have multiple breakout before possibly bullish which will break above 2800-2810 will occur, but if price reject on multiple and touch 2790 former ATH then full retracment on sell will start from therr.
GBP/USD Wedge Breakout (30.1.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.2519
2nd Resistance – 1.2571
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**Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Analysis: Bearish Rejection at Resistance, OANDA:XAUUSD **Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Chart Analysis**
- **Resistance Zone:** The price is currently testing a resistance area marked in gray, aligning with a descending trendline.
- **Potential Rejection:** The chart suggests a possible rejection from this zone, leading to a bearish move.
- **Target:** If rejection holds, the price is expected to drop toward the **2,745** level.
- **Pattern Formation:** The price is forming a lower high structure, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
- **Confirmation:** A strong rejection candle or break of minor support could confirm the downside move.
### **Conclusion:**
Watch for confirmation around the resistance zone. A rejection could trigger a short trade targeting **2,745**, while a breakout above could invalidate the bearish setup.
$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR
(January 2025)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed kept the funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range as expected, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024.
The Fed showed more optimism about the labor market and noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated, removing the reference to ongoing progress toward the 2% target.
The Fed also said the economic outlook is uncertain, and is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
gold on bearish if price falls below 2756#XAUUSD price have recorrect back from bearish now on buy, but based on the third pattern price can still fall back 2740 or more if the drops retrace below 2756 which holds bearish flag. Entry 2756, Target 2740 or more, Stop loss 2767. Above 2767 on 2 times touch will bring price on new time high which likely will touch 2792-2800.
FOREX AUDUSD LONGAUDUSD appears to have formed a fakeout at the lower end of the range. This suggests that traders who entered short positions when support was broken are now either closing their positions or adding to their losing trades to avoid liquidation. This dynamic could fuel the price toward 0.64, where the 21-week exponential moving average is located.
I'm watching for the price to reach the nPOC zone. However, if the price finds support around the 21-day EMA within the next 1–2 days, I plan to enter with half of my position.
USDINR Best sell signal you can find.The USDINR pair has been rising parabolically since the late September 2024 bottom. This rise has however most likely come to an end as the 1W RSI hit the top of its 16-year Resistance Zone.
This Zone has been holding since the October 2008 High and as you can see, it has offered 7 excellent sell signals. Most of those times, the rejection hit at least the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), so if you are looking for a long-term short trade, you can consider this.
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DXY rebounding on the 1D MA50 and bottom of Channel Up.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the November 05 2024 Low and the break-out above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Yesterday it made a new Higher Low exactly at the bottom of the Channel and shortly after breaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This MA recovery confirms the start of the pattern's new Bullish Leg. The previous two delivered a rise of exactly +4.50%, and as such we will be looking for a similar Target at 111.650.
Note that, even though the 1D RSI resembles the May 15 2024 Low, which despite an initial rebound, it was rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line at the time, now the long-term trend has shifted to bullish as that Lower Highs trend-line turned into Support on the December 06 2024 contact.
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USD/JPY -H1- Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 154.30
2nd Support – 153.52
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Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.16
1st Support: 106.51
1st Resistance: 107.92
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GBPUSD: Channel Down forming a top on the 1D MA50.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.465, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 25.916) hitting today its 1D MA50 for the first time after October 9th 2024. By doing so, it reached the top of the 4 month Channel Down and is technically the best level to short. Attention is required as the 1D RSI broke over its 4 month Rectangle, so it may be an early bullish breakout signal, but until we close a candle over the 1D MA50, the trend is bearish and this is the most cost-effective short. The last 0.5 Fibonacci rejection (December 6th) targeted the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This time we will aim a little higher than that (TP = 1.1950) to match the % decline of the previous bearish waves.
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