USD/JPY Market Analysis – Potential Reversal or Continuation?This 15-minute chart of USD/JPY displays a clear bullish impulse following a Change of Character (ChoCh) and a Break of Structure (BoS) . Price action has reached a key resistance zone, and traders are now anticipating the next move based on market reactions.
Key Observations :
1. Change of Character (ChoCh) :
- This indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
- The market rejected lower prices and started forming higher highs and higher lows.
2. b]Break of Structure (BoS) :
- This confirms bullish momentum as previous resistance levels are broken.
- A strong bullish move suggests demand is dominating.
3. Current Price Action :
- The price has approached a liquidity zone (previous high).
- Potential rejection at this level suggests profit-taking or a shift in order flow.
Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Continuation :
- If price retraces into the M15 demand zone (marked on the chart) and finds support, a continuation to the upside is likely.
- A break above the current high could push price towards 149.950 or even 150.000.
❌ Bearish Reversal :
- If price aggressively rejects the current high and breaks the M15 demand zone , we could see a bearish move towards **149.100 - 148.900**.
- This would indicate a deeper correction or potential trend reversal.
Trading Plan:
- **Wait for confirmation at the M15 demand zone.**
- **Look for bullish price action signals for continuation trades.**
- **If demand fails, shift bias to bearish setups.**
📌 Conclusion :
USD/JPY is at a critical decision point. The next move will depend on whether buyers defend the demand zone or if sellers step in to drive price lower. Stay patient and react to market structure shifts accordingly. 🚀📉
DJ FXCM Index
EUR/USD - H1- Chart - Ascending Triangle (27.02.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0433
2nd Support – 1.0405
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XAUUSD - 1hr | Wyckoff Event UPDATEWe await the price to confirm the last step (6) to complete the distribution Phase. The price has fallen to SUPPORT as we predicted. Once a LOWER LOWER is formed, the Distribution Phase is complete. Expect gold turn to remain bearish. Falling as low as 2815.
BULLS :
If the price can respect the support and bounce back above 2910 with strong bullish momentum, we can see the price rally back up to the 2950 area.
BEARS :
If the price creates the lower low as we are expecting around 2860-2880. Then look for the price to:
1. retest support as far back up to 2910.
2. dramatically fall and continue its pullback as low as 2800-2820
USDJPY - JPY strength continues below 152.20 The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) as market expectations for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes gain momentum. This has reinforced a bearish sentiment in the USDJPY currency pair, which remains aligned with the prevailing longer-term downtrend.
From a technical perspective, 152.50 serves as a key resistance level, marking the recent swing high. A potential oversold rally towards this level, followed by a rejection, could reinforce the bearish outlook, with downside targets at 149.30, followed by 147.80 and 147.20 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 152.50, coupled with a sustained daily close above this level, would invalidate the bearish bias. This could shift momentum toward the upside, opening the possibility for further rallies, with resistance levels at 154.30 and 155.70 acting as potential upside targets. The price action around the 152.50 level remains pivotal in determining the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD: Sell trigger on the 4H MA50EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.966, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 17.727) as the price turned sideways in the past 2 weeks. The 4H MA50 is acting as the support of this Channel Up pattern. Even though the price hasn't yet made a technical HH, the 4H RSI is on a LH bearish divergence like the Jan 27th high. The signal to sell then came when the price closed a candle under the 4H MA50. If it happens again, the top will most likely be in, so go short and target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 1.02800).
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btc still bearish#BTCUSD, price have break below the main range which needs correction.
We hope to see price reaching 84k-82k but firstly double breakout below 87600 will drop the price there and stop loss at 88600.
Above 89300 holds bearish zone but if price multiple reverse there possible 91k will retest back.
gold on double breakout#XAUUSD, today on price we hope to see reverse back above 2938 but firstly price holds multiple entry's for bullish breakout.
Firstly above the rectangle 2918-2920 breakout we hope to see the current candle H1 to breakout there which holds strong buy.
If price decline between 2916 without touching 2918 then the price is possible to fall from there back below 2988.
But below 2908 holds bullish if no current move above 2916 then bullish can start from 2908, TP 2938, SL 2896.
EURUSD Channel Up aiming at 1.06300.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up on the 1hour time frame.
The two previous bullish waves both topped on a +2.27% rise.
Having made a new low on February 19th, we are now on the 3rd bullish wave.
We expect a symmetric +2.27%, based also on the identical 1hour RSI it shares with the previous 2 bullish waves.
Buy and target 1.06300 (top of Channel Up at +2.27%).
Previous chart:
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GBP/USD Approaching Key Reversal ZoneThe GBP/USD pair has reached a critical resistance area around 1.2658, aligning with the 1.13 Fibonacci extension level of the harmonic Gartley pattern. The price action suggests potential exhaustion in the bullish trend, with signs of rejection near this level.
A confirmed reversal could lead to a corrective move towards key support zones at 1.2456 and 1.2320. However, if the pair sustains above 1.2685, further upside towards 1.2732 and the HOP level at 1.2843 remains possible.
USD/CHF Poised for a Bullish Reversal at Key SupportThe USD/CHF pair is currently trading near a significant support level around 0.8950, with bullish signals emerging. The harmonic Bat pattern suggests a potential reversal, aligning with historical price reactions at similar levels. Additionally, the presence of green buy markers and RSI indicators approaching oversold conditions indicate possible upward momentum.
If price sustains above the 0.8950 region, a bullish move towards 0.9000 and beyond could unfold, with further resistance around 0.9120. Confirmation of reversal signs, such as bullish candlestick formations and RSI divergence, will strengthen the case for a recovery.
XAU/USD (Gold) Trendline Breakout (21.02.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2904
2nd Support – 2880
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$DXY HOLDS FIRM—TRUMP TARIFFS & FED FUEL 2025 BUZZTVC:DXY HOLDS FIRM—TRUMP TARIFFS & FED FUEL 2025 BUZZ
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! The U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) sits at 106.47 today—tariffs and Fed vibes keep it humming 📈🔥. Down a hair from 106.60—let’s unpack this greenback glow! 🚀
(2/9) – YEARLY SURGE
• 2024 Run: From 100.16 to 107+ by Dec 💥
• Today: 106.47—off 0.12% from yesterday 📊
• Driver: Trump tariffs juice inflation fears
TVC:DXY ’s got grit—2025’s off to a zesty start!
(3/9) – BIG BOOSTERS
• Tariffs: Auto, chip threats—dollar darling 🌍
• Fed: Slow cuts—rates outshine abroad 🚗
• Crypto Nod: Pro- AMEX:USD admin vibes 🌟
Greenback’s flexing—policy packs a punch!
(4/9) – MARKET PULSE
• Vs. Peers: Outpaces euro, yen—rate gaps shine 📈
• X Chatter: 107 peak, post-swearing dip?
• Edge: U.S. growth trumps global woes 🌍
TVC:DXY ’s steady—king of the currency hill?
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Deficits: Fiscal bloat looms long-term ⚠️
• Geo-Tension: Wars nudge safe-haven bets 🏛️
• Fed Pivot: Faster cuts could dim shine 📉
Tough tailwinds—can TVC:DXY dodge the drag?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Tariffs: Inflation lift—dollar darling 🌟
• Rates: Fed’s edge over ECB, BOJ 🔍
• Haven: Chaos loves $ USD—rock solid 🚦
TVC:DXY ’s got muscle—global star!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Debt piles—future wobble? 💸
• Opportunities: Tariff hikes zap rivals 🌍
Can TVC:DXY keep the crown or stumble?
(8/9) – TVC:DXY at 106.47—what’s your vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—108+ by spring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Holds steady, risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Dips below 100 soon.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
TVC:DXY ’s 106.47 glow—tariffs, Fed, and grit shine 🌍🪙. Deficits lurk, but strength rules—bull or bust?
NZDUSD Short-term Channel Up aiming higher.The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a 20-day Channel Up and today hit its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time it did (February 18), it held and initiated a rebound marginally above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
Given that the current pull-back is almost as strong (-1.30%) as the previous, but more importantly the 4H RSI hit its 1-month Higher Lows trend-line, we expect a rebound. Our Target is again the 1.236 Fib ext, this time at 0.57900.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Pullback From Resistance
I think we may see a local bearish continuation after a test
of a key daily/intraday resistance.
A local Change of Character on an hourly clearly shows the strength of the sellers.
The index may retrace at least to 106.53
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NZDUSD INTRADAY Bullish consolidation The NZDUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the breakout level, previous resistance, and now a new support zone.
The key trading level is at 0.5730 level, the previous consolidation price range and also the support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 0.5730 level could target the upside resistance at 0.5770 followed by the 0.5800 and 0.5825 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 0.5730 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 0.5690 support level followed by 0.5635.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD - the upcoming US PCE & the ECB rate decisionAt the moment, we are seeing that the bulls are fighting hard to keep MARKETSCOM:EURUSD elevated. But they are struggling to overcome some key resistance barriers. But the upside doesn't look very promising, due to the upcoming US PCE numbers and the ECB rate decision. Let's dig into the possible near-term outcome scenarios for the $FX_IDC:EURUSD.
What are your thoughts on this?
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GBP/USD Wedge Breakout (24.2.25)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2567
2nd Support – 1.2515
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Is it time to buy the US dollar?With US inflation rising, the US economy performing well, and rates higher for longer (well, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed hike rates by the end of 2025), the USD continues to be an obvious buy.
The TVC:DXY is currently testing key horizontal support (previously resistance) and is nearing the weekly moving averages. This could be the time to buy the dollar.
I'm personally looking to short OANDA:EURUSD OANDA:GBPUSD and OANDA:NZDUSD and buy OANDA:USDCAD and OANDA:USDCHF
EURUSD Will it follow Trump's 1st Term??The EURUSD pair made a market bottom on January 13 2025 and in recent trade, it has been consolidating above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Interestingly enough, this is so far similar to the price action that preceded and followed Trump's 1st Term.
A 1D Death Cross took the market from the November 2016 elections to the January 2017 bottom. After a 1D RSI Double Top and Resistance rejection, the pair dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but recovered to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in end of March 2017 and initiate an aggressive Channel Up that peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 2016 High.
If EURUSD continues to replicate Trump's Year 1 of his 1st Term, it is possible to see the price reach 1.19000 by the end of 2025, although of course we can't rely solely on repetitive patterns, but have to go along macro reports and policies one at a time.
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