Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that line sup with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support: 105.44
1st Resistance: 108.67
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DJ FXCM Index
$S&P500 macro analysis , market approaching correction °•° $SPXHi 👋🏻 check out my previous analysis ⏰ on SP:SPX macro bullish analysis ⏰
As provided it went up up 🚀 completed my target's 🎯 💯💪🏻 ✅ ✔️
Click on it 👆🏻 just check out each and every time updates ☝🏻 ☺️
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
NOW I was completely 🐻 BEARISH on the market with in upcoming months SP:SPX
📌 Expecting liquidation pump $6500 - $6700
Invalid 🛑 when complete month close above $6700
¹support - $5500 ( 🎯 ¹ )
²support - $5130 ( 🎯 ² )
🎯 3 ... Will be updated based on market conditions by that time ☺️
📍 A wise 🦉 man said - always having patience " is " always gaining only /-
NASDAQ:TSLA ( i accumulate slowly until it cross above $400 )
rest of stocks i will follow index ☝🏻 i will invest based on market conditions ..... ✔️
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 24-28thThis is an FX FUTURES outlook for the week of Feb 24-28th.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
USD Index*
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
The USD continues its bearish ways this upcoming weak. It's currency counterparts will likely see some upside this week. Especially the JPY.
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USDCHF shortMy analysis was on the 1 hour timeframe and a small position. When I looked at the daily timeframe, I came across a range that could work very well. I have a Fibonacci line that is 86 and I love this line. In one of my tutorials, I came across this line that in range bounds, the trend reversal always comes and touches 86. It has touched the high level and is changing the trend downwards and we can ride this wave.
xauusd analysis for coming weekKey Factors Influencing XAU/USD
Monetary Policy & Interest Rates:
By early 2025, the Federal Reserve’s stance will be critical. If rate cuts are underway (due to recession risks or controlled inflation), gold could rally as the USD weakens. Conversely, a "higher-for-longer" rate policy could cap gains.
Watch for Fed speeches and the PCE inflation report (due late February 2025) for clues.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalations in conflicts, trade tensions, or unexpected crises (e.g., energy disruptions, elections) could trigger safe-haven demand for gold.
USD Strength:
A strong dollar (e.g., from robust U.S. economic data) may pressure gold. Monitor the DXY Index for inverse correlations.
Scenario-Based Outlook
Bullish Case:
Fed dovishness + weak USD + geopolitical instability → Rally toward $2,100–2,150/oz.
Bearish Case:
Hawkish Fed + strong U.S. data + risk-on sentiment → Decline toward $1,900–1,850/oz.
Trading Strategy
Long-term investors: Accumulate near $1,920–1,950/oz if fundamentals align with bullish drivers.
Critical Events to Monitor
Fed Chair Powell’s testimony (if scheduled).
U.S. Q4 GDP revisions (February 27, 2025).
Global PMI data (manufacturing/services activity).
Geopolitical developments (e.g., U.S.-China relations, Middle East tensions).
Conclusion
Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the interplay between Fed policy, the dollar, and risk sentiment. While technicals suggest a range-bound market between $1,900–2,080/oz, prepare for volatility around key data releases. Always use risk management tools (stop-loss, position sizing) given the uncertainty of long-term forecasts.
more detailed video analysis will be published soon
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USD Bulls on the RopesThe US dollar (USD) – per the US Dollar Index – is on track to end February on the ropes following January’s monthly indecision candle at the resistance of 109.33. I believe USD bears have space to drive towards a ‘local’ descending support around 105.40ish, extended from the high of 107.35.
Similarly, the daily timeframe demonstrates scope for sellers to strengthen their grip. Last week witnessed the Index reject resistance at 107.05, drawing focus towards an ‘alternate’ AB=CD from 105.77 (the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio). For those unfamiliar with Harmonic trading, an alternate AB=CD is simply an extended equal AB=CD formation using either 1.272% or 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratios. Interestingly, not only does the alternate AB=CD pattern share chart space with daily support at 105.62, but these daily levels are located just north of the monthly timeframe’s descending support line underlined above. Consequently, although there is room for bears to take control in the short to medium term, the combination of the monthly and daily support levels could entice profit-taking and encourage fresh long positions into the market, should we reach said area.
Given monthly and daily charts echoing a bearish vibe, I will primarily focus on short-term resistance levels this week. One standout area of H1 resistance is between 107.24 and 107.14, made up of two trendline resistance lines (drawn from 109.88 and 106.57), a horizontal resistance level and two Fibonacci retracement ratios (78.6% and 38.2%). What is also interesting from a technical perspective is that the above-noted H1 resistance zone converges closely with daily resistance mentioned above at 107.05, therefore should the H1 resistance area be tested, the fact daily resistance is also present could add weight to a bearish showing. Should we fail to reach as high as the H1 zone, my next base case scenario is to watch local H1 supports to cede ground to trigger possible selling opportunities: the 106.43 low, for example.
BTCUSD Daily Inflection Point UpdatePreviously I mentioned the weekly was consolidating, but there is potential for this momentum consolidation to have a breakout leg as momentum shifts and the final emotional price movements are played out. I was too conservative in my price projections; a lot more than I used to be- but there wasn't a whole lot of TA involved- I figured the dollar issues would crop up earlier.
Now that the Fed had pivoted. the yields are creeping back up pushing bitcoin back down. The fed doesn't let on just how dire the situation is- and with global tensions rising, the dollar is at significant risk.
I expect a broad correction in all the markets- and cash to become very tight.
There is daily momentum consolidation- and if any other events occur that send yields upward- bitcoin is likely to suffer as a consequence. If instead we sail into the new year unscathed- then this consolidation may provide another leg up; but a break below 88k and a push towards 60k may solidify bitcoins correction.
DAILY
WEEKLY
btcusd on bearish reverse#BTCUSD remains in a bearish setup, with a key break below $96,000 needed to confirm further downside momentum. The take profit zone for shorts is set at $94,800 - $93,000, with a stop loss at $97,000 to protect against a reversal.
However, if price recorrects and forms a double breakout above $97,400, it could trigger bullish momentum, potentially pushing BTC toward $98,300 before any further movement.
GBP/USD at Key Resistance: Potential Reversal or Continuation?The GBP/USD 15-minute chart indicates a strong uptrend, with price action forming a **Crab harmonic pattern**, suggesting a potential overextension. The pair has reached a key resistance zone at **1.26323**, aligning with significant Fibonacci levels, with the **Harmonic Optimal Point (HOP) at 1.26469** acting as a potential reversal area.
If a pullback occurs, the first downside targets are 1.26127 and 1.25993 , while the ** 200 EMA ** below may provide further support. A sustained break above 1.26469 could signal continued bullish momentum. Traders should monitor price action for confirmation before positioning accordingly.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): One More Bearish Movement
Dollar Index keeps updating the lows on a daily.
With a strong bearish movement, the price violated a key horizontal support yesterday.
Probabilities are high that the market will continue falling.
Next support - 106.15
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AUD/USD Triangle Breakout (19.2.25)The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.6391
2nd Resistance – 0.6404
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AUDUSD Bullish break-out signalThe AUDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the whole month of February and since yesterday it is making a bounce on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Today it broke above the previous High and this is a bullish break-out signal. The previous Bullish Leg that rebounded on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and broke above its previous High, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
With the presence of an Inner Higher Highs trend-line, we expect the pair to hit the 1.382 Fib at 0.64250.
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gold still on buy#XAUUSD) remains in a bullish trend, but a temporary drop below $2,947 is expected before resuming upward momentum. A buy entry at this level presents a good opportunity, with a take profit target at $2,965 and a stop loss at $2,938 to manage risk.
However, if the price falls below $2,932, strong bearish pressure could take over, potentially leading to a deeper decline below 2910.
EUR/USD Wedge Breakout (17.2.25)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0413
2nd Support – 1.0375
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gold on sellGold (XAU/USD) has retraced above $2,941, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) at $2,947. Currently, we are watching for a pullback above $2,943, which could signal a bearish continuation.
Key Resistance: $2,947 (ATH)
Bearish Confirmation: A rejection from $2,943 could push gold lower.
Sell Entry: Below $2,943 with a target at $2,911.73 or lower.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,950 to manage risk.
Breakout Zone: Below $2,928 could trigger further downside momentum.
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.