EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (07.04.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0825
2nd Support – 1.0719
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DJ FXCM Index
EURUSD reached a 20-month Resistance. Potential for heavy sell.The EURUSD pair has almost hit the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the July 18 2023 High and immediately got rejected. The Resistance Zone that connects the last 3 major Highs within a 20-month span, follows the same pattern, especially with the 1D RSI Lower Highs peak formation.
Right now we are on the Lower High rejection, which on the previous three peaks hit initially the Support 1 level and then at least the Higher Lows trend-line (if not lower). As a result, we expect heavy selling to start on EURUSD, targeting 1.0730 and 1.0500 in succession.
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Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot an could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 103.26
1st Support: 101.79
1st Resistance: 104.68
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Weekly FOREX Forecast: Buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD vs USDThis is an outlook for the week of April 7 - 11th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
Wait for the market to tip its hand! Monday is a no red folder news day. Great time to let the markets settle on a direction.
Trading a market after a huge push in one direction can be tricky. There is likely to be a pullback before continuing the overall trend. Bear this in mind with the USD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
USDJPY - 4H more fall expectedFX:USDJPY - 4H Update 🔻
If you've traded USDJPY in recent years, you're no stranger to the significance of the 150.00 zone. This level has historically acted as a critical resistance and psychological barrier.
Now, the pair is trading below this key level and has also broken the ascending channel support on the daily timeframe, signaling that bulls are likely out of the game. The recent drop to 147.00 and bounce toward 151.00 could be setting up the next short opportunity.
📌 What to watch for:
A liquidity grab above the 151.50–152.00 zone could occur before the next fall.
This aligns with institutional behavior, hunting stops before continuing the trend.
We're now in a sell-the-rally phase, watching for confirmations around the red zone.
Remember, I previously signaled a short from the 157 zone, which played out beautifully. We’re now gearing up for the next big short, and this setup might just be it.
📉 Stay cautious, wait for price action signals, and trust the structure.
💸 If you’ve missed previous entries, don’t miss what’s coming next!
🔔 Follow for real-time updates and live trade ideas!
BTC/USD update on the drop!Good day traders, yesterday I posted the same set up on bitcoin and now I’ve decided I’m gonna update this setup till we hit our Daily lowest low.
1H TF yesterday before end of trading day we show price bounce off the the horizontal lines and that is used as my support area, going into the New York session we can expect price to retest the break after it breaks below the support which will than become my resistance.
Hopefully today we can see price run our liquidity resting below(equal lows).
My name is Teboho Matla but you don’t know me yet..#Salute
BTCUSD Trade AnalysisLong at 82,520
Target 1 (Primary):91,195 (Early exit if strong rejection forms)
Target 2 (Secondary):99,200 (If bullish momentum sustains)
Stop Loss:77,000 (Below key support).
Expecting a bullish continuation toward 99,200 before a potential sell-off resumes. Will monitor price action near 91,195 for signs of rejection. Stop loss placed below 77,000 to protect against a breakdown.
GOLD BREAKS SHARPLY — BUT THE MOVE WAS WRITTEN IN THE STRUCTURE🟡 GOLD BREAKS SHARPLY — BUT THE MOVE WAS WRITTEN IN THE STRUCTURE
A steep drop in gold just rattled the markets — but if you’ve been following the macro and technical setup closely, this was not only expected, but anticipated.
From the first week of April, we’ve been tracking signals of potential exhaustion in XAUUSD:
🕯️ Candlestick wicks on higher timeframes
📈 Overextended structure
🧠 Macro divergence
Now, all signs have converged — and we’re finally seeing the correction play out.
🔍 Why This Isn’t Just About Gold
What we’re seeing is a broader shift in global market sentiment:
U.S., European, and Asian equities are all under pressure
Crypto has stagnated with little to no fresh capital inflow
Gold — after months of aggressive buying — is now facing wave after wave of profit-taking
This is classic risk-off behaviour.
Investors are choosing cash, sitting tight, and waiting for clarity — not only in the charts but in the headlines too.
📉 DXY Building a Case for Recovery
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been heavily sold in recent months — but is now holding at a multi-year structural support zone that’s been tested multiple times since 2021.
With Trump returning to the spotlight and triggering a fresh round of global tariff negotiations, the USD is regaining narrative strength.
Trump’s stance has already prompted discussions among major economies, putting the U.S. in a dominant position — and the market is beginning to price that in.
🤔 What’s Holding the Fed Back?
Despite rising trade tensions, the Federal Reserve has remained cautious — choosing not to act until the dust settles from geopolitical and policy developments.
This creates a window of opportunity:
If the Fed holds rates while global central banks soften
And if the USD holds this major support
→ We could see strong dollar flows return in Q2.
🔮 Gold Outlook – Where Next?
In the short term:
Expect continued volatility
Potential for gold to slide further toward 308x – 305x range
Any bounce is likely to be technical rather than fundamental
In the medium term:
Once political noise fades, gold may find support again
Especially if inflation expectations persist or the Fed pivots dovish later in Q2
💡 Takeaways for UK Traders
✅ Don't trade the news — trade the reaction
✅ Macro structure matters more than the daily headlines
✅ Capital preservation beats chasing euphoria
We’re not guessing.
We’re reading the story and planning with structure.
How Worrying is the Weakening Dollar? A Departure from TraditionThe value of a nation's currency is a critical barometer of its economic health and global standing.1 Typically, in times of international turmoil or economic uncertainty, the U.S. dollar, as the world's reserve currency, tends to strengthen.2 This "safe-haven" effect is driven by increased demand for the dollar as investors seek stability and liquidity. However, recent trends have seen the greenback exhibit a notable weakening, even amidst persistent global anxieties.3 This begs the crucial question: how worrying is this deviation from the norm, and what are the potential implications for the U.S. and the global economy?
To understand the significance of a weakening dollar, it's essential to first recognize the factors that typically influence its strength. These include interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, the overall performance of the U.S. economy relative to others, trade balances, and geopolitical stability.4 Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar and thus its value.5 Strong economic growth similarly boosts confidence in the currency.6 Conversely, high inflation erodes the dollar's purchasing power, while a significant trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can indicate an oversupply of the currency in global markets, leading to depreciation.
Historically, during periods of global crisis, the dollar has often acted as a port in a storm. Events like geopolitical conflicts, financial market meltdowns in other regions, or global pandemics have typically triggered a "flight to safety," with investors flocking to the perceived security and liquidity of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, thereby strengthening the currency.7 This was evident during past crises, where the dollar often appreciated as investors sought refuge from volatility elsewhere.
The current weakening of the dollar, therefore, raises eyebrows precisely because it seemingly contradicts this established pattern. While global uncertainties persist – ranging from ongoing geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world to concerns about the pace of global economic growth – the dollar has not consistently exhibited its traditional strengthening behavior. This departure suggests that underlying factors might be at play, potentially signaling deeper concerns about the U.S. economic outlook or the dollar's long-term standing.
One potential reason for this weakening could be a shift in relative economic strength. If other major economies are perceived to be on a stronger growth trajectory or offering more attractive investment opportunities, capital might flow away from the dollar, putting downward pressure on its value. For instance, improvements in economic prospects in the Eurozone or emerging markets could lead investors to diversify their holdings, reducing their reliance on the dollar.
Furthermore, concerns about the U.S.'s fiscal health, including rising national debt and persistent budget deficits, could also contribute to dollar weakness. While the dollar's reserve currency status has historically provided a buffer, a sustained period of fiscal imbalance could eventually erode investor confidence in the long-term value of the currency.8
Another factor to consider is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While higher interest rates typically support a stronger dollar, expectations of future rate cuts or a more accommodative monetary stance could dampen investor enthusiasm for dollar-denominated assets. If the market anticipates that the Fed will need to lower rates to support economic growth or combat deflationary pressures, this could lead to a weakening of the dollar.9
The implications of a weakening dollar are multifaceted and can have both positive and negative consequences for the U.S. economy. On the positive side, a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive in international markets, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers.10 This could potentially boost U.S. manufacturing and help to narrow the trade deficit. Additionally, a weaker dollar can increase the value of earnings that U.S. multinational corporations generate in foreign currencies, as these earnings translate into more dollars when repatriated.
However, the downsides of a weakening dollar can be significant. Firstly, it makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers and businesses.11 This can lead to higher prices for a wide range of goods, potentially fueling inflation.12 For businesses that rely on imported components or raw materials, a weaker dollar can increase their costs of production, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.
Secondly, a sustained weakening of the dollar could erode its status as the world's reserve currency. While this is a long-term prospect, a decline in the dollar's dominance could have significant implications for the U.S.'s ability to borrow cheaply and exert influence in the global financial system.13
Thirdly, a weakening dollar could lead to concerns among foreign investors holding U.S. assets, such as Treasury bonds. If they anticipate further depreciation of the dollar, they might become less inclined to hold these assets, potentially leading to higher U.S. borrowing costs in the future.
In conclusion, the current weakening of the dollar, particularly in the face of ongoing global uncertainties where it would typically strengthen, is a trend that warrants careful attention. While a moderate depreciation can have some benefits for U.S. exports, a sustained or significant weakening could signal underlying economic vulnerabilities or a shift in global investor sentiment towards the greenback. Factors such as relative economic performance, U.S. fiscal health, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will likely play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the dollar. The departure from its traditional safe-haven status serves as a reminder that the dollar's dominance is not immutable and underscores the importance of maintaining sound economic policies to underpin its long-term strength and stability. Monitoring these trends will be critical for understanding the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for the United States.
Let's cover the action of some instruments as we get the NFPLet's see what's happening with the market as we get the NFP number live.
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
TVC:GOLD
FRED:SP500
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Long-Awaited Recover
It looks like Dollar Index is going to pullback
after a test of a significant support cluster on a daily.
A strong bullish imbalance candle that was formed on an hourly
time frame shows a strong buying interest from that zone.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 102.35
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EUR USD Weekly Timeframe Outlook EUR USD Trade Setup weekly timeframe
On the weekly timeframe EUR USD has tapped on a strong supply level.
this level has also acted as a strong resistance level in the past.
So we will be looking for selling opportunities from the lower timeframe.
Patterns to watch out for.
1. Double Top
2. Head and shoulders pattern
3. Bearish break and retest + it must align with the 0.50 - 0.618 Fib Retracement level for stronger confirmation.
4. Lower timeframe supply levels.
Check next post to see the pattern i found.
XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (02.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3077
2nd Support – 3048
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USD/JPY - ShortWeekly (Bias Validation)
- Price between EMAs → ❌ Ranging
- Major Swing Point High: 158.880 Low: 146.543
D1 (Daily): Trend Bias
- Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias
- Major Swing Point High: 154.804 Low: 146.543
- ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance
- Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias
H4 (4-Hour): Trend Bias
- Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias
- Major Swing Point High: 151.214 Low: 149.684
- ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance
- Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias
- High-Probability Entry Zones (H4 OTE)
- H4 OB (OTE)
H1 (1-Hour): Trend Bias
- Swing Point High: 150.953 Low: 149.684
- ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance
- H4 OB → (OTE)
- H1 OB → (OTE)
🔲 Validate with VWAP:
✔ ✅ H1 VWAP must align with H4 OTE before entry
✔ ✅ If price rejects H1 VWAP + OB midpoint, strong trade setup
🔲 Entry Options:
✔ Option 1 (Limit Order Entry):
* Place a limit order at the OB midpoint inside OTE
* Set stop-loss below OB (for longs) / above OB (for shorts)
✔ Option 2 (EMA Confirmation Entry):
* ✅ Enter when 9EMA crosses 21EMA near OTE
* ✅ Must have Volume Imbalance Confirmation
🔲 Final Confirmation:
✔ ✅ High Volume on Structure Break → Confirms strong move
✔ ✅ Low Volume on Pullback → Smart money accumulation
DXY just broke below the 1W MA200 after 6 months!The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) broke today below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since the week of September 30 2024). By doing so, it has almost hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up.
The last contact with the 1W MA200 initiated a massive Bullish Leg two weeks after, so it would be an encouraging development if the candle holds here or better yet even close above the 1W MA200.
If it does, we expect a new strong Bullish Leg to start, targeting initially at least the 0.786 horizontal (blue) Fibonacci level at 108.000.
If not, the 2-year Support Zone is the last defense, with 99.600 as its lowest level (the July 10 2023 Low). Below that, a multi-year downtrend for DXY awaits.
Notice however, the incredible 1W RSI symmetry between selling sequences. Since January 2023, we've had two -54.50% declines. Right now, the current decline since January 2025 is exactly at -54.50%. If DXY rebounds here, it will confirm this amazing symmetry.
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USD/CHF Market Analysis – Potential Bullish ReversalThe USD/CHF pair is currently in a downtrend, as indicated by the overall bearish price action. However, the chart suggests a potential reversal scenario.
Price is approaching a key H4 demand zone, which previously acted as strong support. If this level holds, a bullish move could be anticipated. The projected market structure indicates a possible pullback before a continuation upwards, aligning with the larger trend shift.
Traders should monitor price reaction within the demand zone, as a break below could indicate further downside continuation, while a strong rejection may confirm a bullish reversal.
EURUSD: Forming long term top inside 5 days.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.837, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 25.790) as since last Thursday it is rebounding on the 1D MA200. This is a perfect repetition of the September 2024 Double Top and right now we are on the final mini Channel Up, which inside 5 days priced that past top. Consequently we are prepared to turn bearish by halfway next week and aim for the S1 initially (TP = 1.0400).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (02.04.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0736
2nd Support – 1.0707
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No Rate Hike, No Mercy – AUD/USD Selling in Style!Riding the wave of bearish structure, AUD/USD continues to follow the macro trend with laser precision. After the RBA held rates steady, we’re seeing the typical post-news dump play out—fueled by the market’s disappointment and reduced sentiment.
Technically, price respected the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and showed strong displacement to the downside, confirming continuation.
Key Targets:
🔻 0.62311 – Minor liquidity
🔻 0.62185 – 1H Sell-side liquidity
🔻 0.61703 – Ultimate short-term sell-side target
Expecting the market to bleed lower unless major fundamentals flip the bias. Until then... the trend is your bestie.
DYOR 🧠📉
BTC - 1H Clean Liquidity Hunt & Bearish Continuation BINANCE:BTCUSDT - 1H Update
Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend on the 4H and daily timeframes. After hunting the liquidity above the resistance zone, price began to drop exactly from our shared short entry at 83,700—and it's now on the move toward deeper targets.
🔹 Key Insights:
BTC grabbed liquidity just above resistance before reversing.
Price is now likely heading toward the liquidation zone below the support, aligning with the broader downtrend.
This setup offered a perfect short opportunity from $83,700, with clearly defined targets and risk.
🎯 Last Target: 80,200
💡 Congrats to all who followed our signal! The move is unfolding as expected.
📊 Stay locked in for the next big setups—follow for precise, real-time trade ideas! 🔔
EURUSD 4H Bearish Cross starting the peak formation.The EURUSD pair posted a strong rebound last week, which is along the lines of our long-term bearish structure estimate, similar to the September 2024 Top.
The 4H MA50/100 Bearish Cross that was formed on Thursday, simply confirms that the pattern goes according to plan as on September 06 2024, the price got rejected after its completion and then rebounded to test Resistance 1 before the ultimate market peak.
We still expect a similar development, with our ultimate long-term Target being 1.03650, just above Support 1.
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