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DJ FXCM Index

EURUSD: Get ready for a fast short.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.619, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 44.229) as it has started the new bullish wave following the test of the 1 year HL trendline but on 1H it got overbought (RSI = 76.034) rebounding very aggressively on its 1H MA50. That is fairly similar to the October 30th rebound of the bullish wave that topped upon a +1.15% rise. We are approaching that % increase so get ready to short. So far we have had two pullbacks of -0.56% each, an amazing display of symmetry inside the Channel Up. That is our target on the short term (TP = 1.08950). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544. On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44. On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
by morrisgitau
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days. The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance. The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern. As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone. All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short
by TheCryptagon
EURUSD targeting 1.0500 after the 1W MA100 rejection.Late August (Aug 26, see chart below) saw us emphasizing the critical role of the Lower Highs trend-line, being the top of a multi-year Falling Wedge pattern that started at the peak of the 2008 Housing Crisis, and its important on the long-term trend, with a break-out being bullish while a rejection being bearish: The price was eventually rejected exactly at the top and at the same time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which did the July 2023 rejection. That rejection initiated a correction back to the Symmetrical Support Zone of 2015. As a result, we expect EURUSD to gradually descend towards that Zone and by mid 2025, hit 1.0500. Notice also that the 1W RSI also got very close to its 15-year Resistance Zone. This has triggered in the past more brutal sell-offs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
DXY Under Pressure: Analyzing Economic Signals Ahead U.S. Elect.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently showing intriguing movements as it deals with a mix of economic data and looming political changes. After a Friday marked by disappointing economic indicators—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Farm Employment Change—the DXY appears to be entering a potential reversal phase. This was further reflected in its negative opening on Monday, which had a noticeable impact on trading in London. Economic Backdrop and Market Sentiment The DXY's recent performance has been influenced by a combination of economic releases and trader sentiment. The mixed results from significant economic indicators have created a sense of cautious uncertainty among investors. The less-than-ideal ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change figures have raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, prompting traders to reassess their positions. As market participants analyze these economic signals, it’s evident that the DXY is acting in response to established price levels and supply zones. Recent price actions suggest a critical juncture; the dollar seems to be encountering resistance as it approaches these key areas. Insights from the COT Report A deeper look at the market dynamics through the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a noteworthy divergence. Retail traders continue to maintain long positions, likely influenced by previous bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar. Meanwhile, institutional investors, often referred to as the "smart money," are taking a more bearish stance, gradually shifting their positions lower. This unsettling divergence raises important questions: Will the enthusiasm of retail traders sway the market, or will the more cautious strategies of institutional investors prevail? This situation highlights the potential for volatility that characterizes these transitional phases in the market. Retail traders may find themselves at risk if the smart money's strategies prove to be more prescient. Seasonal Trends Indicate a Bearish Outlook Adding another layer of complexity, seasonal patterns historically suggest that a bearish trend may be on the horizon during this time of year. Price movements often align with established seasonal patterns, prompting traders to consider the implications for future market performance. The Impending U.S. Elections: A Prelude to Volatility With U.S. elections fast approaching, market volatility is expected to rise significantly. History shows that political events can greatly influence currency and asset prices, leading traders to adjust their positions in anticipation of results. This environment is likely to see retracements across various indices and currencies, creating turmoil across the financial landscape. As market participants prepare for the immediate aftermath of the elections, substantial fluctuations are anticipated. The uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes and the resulting policy shifts will drive considerable movement across asset classes. Conclusion The DXY’s trajectory is complex as it navigates a potential reversal amidst mixed economic signals, diverging trader positions, and impending political changes. With the elections on the horizon, traders should brace for increased volatility and be ready to adapt to rapid shifts in momentum. Staying informed about economic indicators, seasonal trends, and overall market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this challenging landscape. Ultimately, success in these uncertain times will hinge on understanding market psychology while remaining agile in response to both data releases and geopolitical developments. Initial Idea: ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYShort
by FOREXN1
1
fib at 1.1034fibonnaci at 1.1034, it is my 1st target and first real ressistance, appart of not beeing there the price for long in my pov, but dxy has a resistance on the 16th of august at that level wht can invade the long posistion making a bigger resistance, but imo it will might go to 1.12 to 1.14 but only the markets can say, and be careful on election day. keep ur trading safe, do your own analysis, you can take value in others persons analysis but do ur own, and keep ur risk safe, take care at elections day, it can change everything,.
Long
by Carlosdrcunha
Gold after U.S. election : Since rising tensions have played a significant role in the recent increase in gold prices, let’s look at each U.S. presidential candidate’s approach to handling these tensions and their future plans. Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, is focused on diplomatic efforts to reduce conflicts in the Middle East. She generally follows the Biden administration's approach, aiming to ease hostilities through aid and international agreements, including a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. This approach may help stabilize markets by reducing the volatility tied to prolonged conflicts. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, takes a more aggressive stance. He supports a strong alliance with Israel, endorses military responses to threats from Iran and its regional affiliates, and prioritizes U.S. strength and independence. Trump's “America First” stance could lead to continued or heightened tensions, which historically correlates with higher gold prices due to investor flight to safe-haven assets. In summary: Kamala Harris: Diplomatic de-escalation, which may stabilize gold prices. Donald Trump: Military strength and strong alliances, likely to keep prices high in case of increased tension. These policy differences could significantly impact markets depending on which candidate wins. Please support us by liking and leaving comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market-Analyzer
Gold Out LookPreviously from few weeks we were bullish over gold and still if we follow the major trend from monthly to weekly to Daily we are still bullish over the pair but from last week the pair has shown us a new ATH and done a retracment downwards now its has reached between 23.8 to 38.2 retracment level now as the price action is followed it will follow the bear trend from 4H to 1H to lower time frames and go towards price level of 2716 and then if bears will push it more down and price breaks the support level on 2716 it will be seen in 2698 level of support which is 50% of fibbonaci retracement level and then we can a see a upward rally GEOPOLITICAL Factor As we have seen earlier Iran and Israel Tension was on Peak and Investors tried to Invest in Safe heaven and the safe heaven performed well now the tension is weaken a little so that price is going down if some tension increases we will see a Rise in price AMERICAN Elections American elections are right on the edge and price 5th November is a crucial date and the coming week will be a busy week for safe heaven banks and big player so we will be watching price closely if we observe any bullish price action pattern we will be buying safe heaven otherwise we will enjoy the bearish move fingers crossed next week will be very busy and crucial for the future of Bulls and bears
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Wakeel_Saab
EURUSD Short term buy inside a Channel Up.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up. The price has falled by -0.55%, same amount as the October 25th-28th pull back. That was a short term buy opportunity that targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci. The MA200 (1h) is supporting just below. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.08750 (Fibonacci 0.786 level). Tips: 1. The RSI (1h) is about to turn oversold. That has been the most effective buy signal on the last 3 lows (October 29th, 28th and 23rd). Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
USDJPY Daily Analysis: A Slight Bearish Bias Expected!!Introduction Today’s analysis of the USDJPY pair suggests a potential for slight bearish movement. Key fundamental factors, including recent US and Japanese economic data and central bank positions, seem to favor a downside bias. Let’s examine these drivers in detail to provide a comprehensive view for traders and investors monitoring the USDJPY. 1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Tone The US Federal Reserve’s latest communication indicates a cautious approach, with market participants widely expecting the Fed to maintain its current interest rate. This dovish tone, coupled with moderating US economic data, could weaken the US Dollar. If the Fed holds rates or hints at potential rate cuts in 2024, this could weigh on the USD, providing room for JPY strength against the Dollar. Consequently, the market’s perception of a less aggressive Fed policy may contribute to the USDJPY pair’s bearish bias today. 2. Bank of Japan’s Evolving Stance The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has recently shown signs of potentially moving away from its ultra-loose policy stance. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments have signaled a potential shift in monetary policy, raising speculation around adjustments in yield control measures. Any further tightening of Japanese yields or gradual normalization signals may strengthen the JPY as Japanese bond yields rise, attracting capital inflows. This shift, however gradual, could support a stronger JPY, thereby pressuring USDJPY downward. 3. Japanese Economic Resilience Japan’s economy has recently demonstrated steady resilience, with improved inflation data aligning closer to the BoJ’s targets. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings and positive manufacturing activity lend support to the JPY. The BoJ’s confidence in these indicators may reinforce market sentiment that Japan is on a steady path to growth. Consequently, with USD expected to remain relatively soft, this positions the JPY more favorably in the USDJPY pair, reinforcing today’s bearish outlook. 4. Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows In today’s mixed risk sentiment environment, safe-haven assets like the JPY often become more attractive. Investors may favor the JPY in times of global economic uncertainty or as geopolitical events unfold. As the US Dollar is pressured by softer economic indicators, the JPY’s safe-haven appeal may drive demand, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish tendency today. Conclusion In conclusion, the USDJPY pair shows potential for a slight bearish bias today due to the Fed’s cautious stance, the BoJ’s gradual policy evolution, resilient Japanese economic data, and safe-haven flows favoring the JPY. Traders may find it beneficial to watch these fundamental factors closely, as they provide critical insights into USDJPY’s likely direction. Keywords: #USDJPYanalysis, #USDollar, #JapaneseYen, #USDJPYbearishbias, #ForextradingNovember12024, #FederalReservepolicy, #Bankof Japanstance, #JPYstrength, #Safehavencurrency, #Forextechnicalanalysis, #Japaneseinflationdata, #Forextradinginsights.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish Bias.Introduction Today, we focus on the NZDUSD pair, assessing if a slightly bullish bias is likely. Amid evolving fundamental factors and current market sentiment, the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) may see subtle upward momentum, depending on several key drivers. Let’s explore these influences in more detail to help traders make informed decisions. 1. Recent NZ Economic Indicators New Zealand's recent economic data shows a stable but cautious outlook, with moderate improvements in employment and inflation metrics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control without aggressively tightening interest rates. Recent improvements in inflation data may continue to support the NZD, as stable inflation signals robust economic activity without undue financial strain. These trends encourage moderate investment inflows into New Zealand, providing slight upward pressure on the NZD. 2. Federal Reserve and US Economic Data The US Federal Reserve’s recent signals suggest the potential for a pause in rate hikes. This dovish stance supports risk sentiment, favoring currencies like the NZD. If the Fed emphasizes an inflation-fighting stance with a cautious approach, risk sentiment could rise, supporting a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD. Additionally, softer-than-expected US economic data may weigh on the USD, creating room for the NZD to gain traction. 3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Dynamics New Zealand's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly dairy and agricultural exports. A recent uptick in global dairy prices is favorable for the NZD, as higher export revenues strengthen New Zealand’s trade balance and overall economic resilience. Improved trade relations between China and New Zealand may also bolster investor confidence in the NZD, as China is a major trade partner. Positive developments here could add to NZD strength against the USD. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite Global risk sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the NZDUSD pair’s direction. The NZD often benefits in risk-on environments due to its status as a high-beta currency. Currently, with geopolitical uncertainties relatively controlled and a more stable global economic backdrop, risk appetite may support NZDUSD gains. If investors remain optimistic about global growth, the NZD’s appeal increases, leaning the bias towards a slight bullish trend. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair could exhibit a slightly bullish bias today, driven by favorable domestic economic indicators, the US Fed’s dovish stance, rising commodity prices, and stable market sentiment. This anticipated trend is subject to fluctuations, and traders are advised to keep a close eye on US data releases and global risk dynamics. Keywords: #NZDUSDanalysis, #NewZealandDollar, #USDollar, #NZDbullishbias, #ForextradingNovember12024, #ReserveBankofNewZealand, #FederalReserve, #Commodityprices, #Risksentiment, #Forextechnicalanalysis, #FundamentalfactorsinForex.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
$USGDPQQ -U.S GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.8% Q3/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q3 2024, below 3% in Q2 and forecasts of 3%, the advance estimate from the BEA showed. Personal spending increased at the fastest pace since Q1 2023 (3.7% vs 2.8% in Q2), boosted by a 6% surge in consumption of goods (6% vs 3%) and a robust spending on services (2.6% vs 2.7%), mostly prescription drugs, motor vehicles and parts, outpatient services and food services and accommodations. Government consumption also rose more (5% vs 3.1%), led by defense spending. In addition, the contribution from net trade was less negative (-0.56 pp vs -0.9 pp), with both exports (8.9% vs 1%) and imports (11.2% vs 7.6%) soaring, led by capital goods, excluding autos. On the other hand, private inventories dragged 0.17 pp from the growth, after adding 1.05 pp in Q2. Also, fixed investment slowed (1.3% vs 2.3%), led by a decline in structures (-4% vs 0.2%) and residential investment (-5.1% vs -2.8%). Investment in equipment however, soared (11.1% vs 9.8%).
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
US Dollar Trends:Navigating the Supply Area and Market SentimentAs the trading week began on Monday, the US Dollar (DXY) found itself testing a significant supply area, leading to a period of consolidation within a tight range. This move comes on the heels of disappointing Durable Goods orders data, which has sparked bearish sentiment among traders, prompting a downward shift in the Greenback's value. The Impact of Economic Data The recent Durable Goods orders report fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the resilience of the US economy. Such data often serves as a barometer for economic health, influencing traders' decisions and market dynamics. With this disappointing figure, traders have been quick to react, driving the dollar lower as they reassess their positions. Analyzing Market Sentiment The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a telling shift in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions on the dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—are beginning to accumulate bearish positions. This divergence in sentiment raises an essential question: is there an impending reversal in the dollar's trend? Timing the Market Timing becomes crucial in a market characterized by conflicting signals. While the COT report indicates a potential shift, it’s essential to identify the right entry points. Many analysts believe the DXY could experience another bullish impulse before any significant decline materializes. This potential upward movement may serve to "trap" sellers who have positioned themselves in anticipation of a downturn. Seasonal Patterns and Technical Analysis Adding to the complexity of this scenario is the emergence of a seasonal bearish pattern indicated by forecasters. Seasonal trends often play a critical role in currency movements, and traders must remain vigilant to these patterns when planning their strategies. In conjunction with this seasonal insight, technical analysis reveals a rectangle pattern on the chart, which suggests a defined range of support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to look for entry opportunities within this range, where the likelihood of a price breakout is heightened. Conclusion In conclusion, as the US Dollar navigates this crucial supply area amidst mixed signals from market participants, traders must approach their strategies with caution. Monitoring economic indicators, understanding market sentiment shifts, and analyzing technical patterns will be pivotal in making informed trading decisions. The current environment presents both challenges and opportunities, and identifying the right entry point could be the key to capitalizing on potential market movements. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out. What are your thoughts on the current market conditions, and where do you see the DXY heading next?
TVC:DXY
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD: First 1H Golden Cross formed in 6 weeks.EURUSD may be marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.367, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 65.014) but on 1H it is cruising to the RSI overbought level as it formed the first 1H Golden Cross since September 15th. Technically it is a bullish pattern but short term the price has to overcome the S1 level (just hit it) and an almost overbought 4H RSI. This may give you the last opportunity to buy and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 1.10385), which has been the minimum target on every 1H Golden Cross since August. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope