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USDJPY: Potential for a Slight Bearish Bias Amid Key FundamentalUSDJPY: Potential for a Slight Bearish Bias Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (25/10/2024) Today, the USDJPY currency pair could experience a slight bearish bias, driven by recent shifts in both the Japanese and U.S. economic landscape. Here’s a breakdown of the factors contributing to this potential trend, along with insights into what traders should watch as the day unfolds. 1. Bank of Japan’s Potential Shift in Policy The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy stance for years, but recent signals suggest a possible move towards tightening. Japanese inflation rates have gradually risen, and with core inflation holding steady above target levels, the BoJ may finally consider adjusting its dovish stance. Any indication of a shift toward a more hawkish BoJ, even if gradual, could support the JPY, creating downward pressure on the USDJPY pair. 2. US Dollar Weakness on Federal Reserve Pause Speculation The US Dollar (USD) has softened recently as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes. U.S. economic data has shown signs of cooling inflation, and Fed officials have hinted that a pause could be on the horizon, given recent macroeconomic indicators. A dovish tone from the Fed typically weakens the USD, thus enhancing the relative strength of the JPY. This potential softening in the dollar is an essential factor in the slight bearish bias for USDJPY. 3. Market Sentiment Shifting Towards Safe-Haven Assets Investor sentiment is currently tilted toward safe-haven assets, largely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertain global economic conditions. While the USD is also a safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen (JPY) often gains favor when there’s heightened uncertainty in markets, especially in Asia. This risk-averse sentiment is driving investors to seek the JPY, which could contribute to additional downward momentum in the USDJPY pair today. 4. Technical Indicators Suggest Resistance for USDJPY From a technical perspective, USDJPY is encountering resistance around the 150.00 level. This is a critical psychological threshold, and the pair’s failure to break above this level reinforces a potential bearish sentiment. With Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels approaching overbought territory, a bearish correction might be anticipated. Additionally, a dip below the 149.00 support level could confirm this outlook and signal further downside potential. Summary: Slight Bearish Bias for USDJPY Today’s fundamental factors suggest a slight bearish bias for USDJPY, largely due to potential changes in Bank of Japan policy, a softer US Dollar from Federal Reserve pause speculation, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Technical resistance at key levels also reinforces the likelihood of a bearish tilt for the pair. Traders should watch for real-time updates on BoJ announcements, Fed commentary, and any developments in geopolitical news that could impact USDJPY direction. --- Keywords 1. USDJPY forecast 2. Bank of Japan policy 3. US Dollar analysis 4. Fed rate pause 5. USDJPY bearish trend 6. Forex trading insights 7. Safe-haven assets 8. Japanese Yen strength 9. USDJPY technical levels
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 104.54 1st Support: 104.05 1st Resistance: 104.81 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
AW US Dollar\Euro Analysis - Uncovering More Supporting EvidenceThis right here is fresh new US Dollar analysis. It will form the basis for future ideas. I have taken my bull and bear views of late and dissected them in order to find inaccuracies in the analysis. To make assumptions based on incorrect long-term analysis is like shooting yourself in the foot. The thing is that I have gotten used to doing this and going back and sifting and sorting through the potentials. All whilst remembering the inaccuracies of all the previous ideas. Taking the things that make the most sense and putting them at the top of the list. Here I go about building a thesis that US Dollar strength may return sooner than originally thought. Using a set of examples, I explain why I believe that this could be the likely outcome. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
AW US Dollar Analysis - It Appears We Need One More High...Thanks to the Aussie Dollar analysis we can now assume that the US Dollar has not topped out yet. There is one thing I forgot to mention in this video which may or may not be of interest. If Wave 1 is the shortest or rather small, then Waves 3 and 5 tend to be similar in length. That could be troublesome for the markets. Let's see how this unfolds. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
1
AW US Dollar Analysis - So Far Only 2; 1-2 Sub Divisions...Trying to draw comparisons between the US Dollar and the Aussie Dollar isn't easy right now. Aussie Dollar could be in the beginning of an unconfirmed third Wave and the US Dollar could be setting up for one. Now that we have narrowed down the view to that, there is also the strength factor. Aussie dollar is still above its last low whilst the US Dollar has made a new high. This non confirmation ahead of the Non-Farm Employment Change data could be of significance. I supposed we will find out shortly. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by AriasWave
1
US dollar index: DXY bull trend over as inflation cools? DXY fundamental analysis The dollar tumbled after US consumer inflation data fell more than expected in October. Annual headline inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY fell to 7.7% in October, from 8.2% the previous month and below the 8% predicted. The core measure of inflation ECONOMICS:USCIR , which excludes volatile energy and food costs, fell to 6.3% from 6.6%, falling short of expectations (6.5%). The monthly increase in headline inflation was 0.4% instead of the 0.6% that was expected, and the core increase in inflation was 0.3% instead of the 0.5% that was expected. Lower-than-expected US inflation has prompted investors speculating on slower Fed rate hikes in the future. The probabilities for the December meeting have swung in favour of a 50 basis point hike, which is currently factored with an 80% chance, up from 50% before the CPI release. The expected terminal rate at which the Fed's rising cycle will terminate in May 2023 has decreased to 4.80% from 5.08% before to the inflation report. This means that the markets are currently pricing in an increase of just over 75 basis points until May 2023. US 2-year Treasury yields, which reflects expectations for the Fed monetary policy sunk by 26bps to 4.3%. Expectations of Fed terminal increases and rising US 2-year Treasury yields have supported the DXY bull trend throughout the year. Reduced rate hike expectations are bad news for the dollar, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at October's FOMC meeting suggest it's premature to declare the end of the raising cycle. Technical analysis The DXY daily chart would suggest that we may be facing the end of the dollar's bullish trend, as the price action in the November 10th session actually broke down the bullish trendline of 2022, and lowered even further than the 50-day moving average. However, for a confirmation of that trend reversal in the DXY, we should likely wait until major Fibonacci retracement levels are cleared by price action. The next level of support is 107.1 (38.2% Fibonacci level of 2022 range), followed by 104.7, which would represent a 50% retracement of the 2022 dollar rally. If bears can break through that barrier, it would mean that they will be in charge of the dollar trend. However, if the Fed pushes back against the slowdown in the inflation rate and signals a more restrictive monetary policy than the market is actually pricing in, we might see some bulls reappear on DXY dip. This contrarian scenario, which seems less likely for the market, could effectively limit the downward movement of the USD.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Capitalcom
DXY: A MOVE WE ALL WISH FOR.Hello guys, here's an update on DXY in 2 days timeframe. The US dollar index is currently holding long-term support ever since early 2022. In this span of 10 months, we have seen the DXY bounce back making a higher high. This allowed DXY to form a nice rising wedge pattern and now once again we come to the point where DXY will either bounce back or break down. I wish DXY could play out according to the chart because this will mean a good green rally incoming in the crypto market. A bounce, on the other hand, will show some more bearish moves and will lead the market to drop further low. I am anxiously waiting for a breakdown. Will it happen now or after one last bounce? To know the answer, we will have to wait for the next weekly candle to close. I hope this update is helpful for you all. Trade safely.
TVC:DXYShort
by Dexter_The_Trader
5
US dollar (DXY) index technical analysis: more room to go?The US dollar has defied gravity this year, rising 15% so far, with the DXY index on an exponential upward trend since May 2021, owing to strong macroeconomic factors that continue to support the Federal Reserve's plan to keep raising interest rates aggressively. From the DXY monthly chart, we can see that the long-term major trend is still well in place. Fibonacci analysis from April 2008 lows to 2022 highs identifies 120.19 as the next level of extension (123.6%), which corresponds to the DXY's March 2002 highs. The latest upswing leg, which began in June 2021, is strikingly similar to the rise that followed the double-bottom pattern set in April 1995. As the monthly RSI hovers around overbought levels, caution is warranted as price pullbacks have historically occurred whenever the oscillator has crossed this line. As a result, if the DXY retraces and breaks support at 109.3 in the near term, we can expect a consolidation phase between 109.3 and 107.3 (corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 2022 low-high and the 50-day moving average). This scenario is conceivable, particularly if other significant central banks, like the BoE and the ECB, deliver outsized rate increases (at least 75 basis points) in the coming meetings. However, it is unlikely that the DXY will break significantly below its 50-day moving average in the near future, as all attempts to do so this year have been met with a strong bullish response. In a medium-long term view the absence of major macro catalysts that would undermine the dollar's strength, such as a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, makes the scenario of a long-term bullish trend reversal unlikely at this time. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
TVC:DXY
by Capitalcom
US DOLLAR INDEX Analysis | Risk-to-Reward: +11.6US Dollar Index Long | Small Risk, Huge Reward | R:R +11.6 Position 1 Entry @ 105.762 Stop Loss: 105.500 Primary Take Profit: 107. 250 Swing Take Profit: 108.800 __________ Position 2 Entry @ 105.710 Stop Loss @ 105.080 Primary Take Profit: 107. 250 Swing Take Profit: 108.800 ___________ Use the Risk-to-Reward Visual Trade Levels For Risk Free Trading, Guiding Your Trades to TP's. This allows your emotional intelligence to grow as your profits do but, most importantly your mastery of the how the market works. ***I personally am trading a 100k account so I focus on 10 total Pairs excluding Crypto daily, risking .25% per trade position aiming for anywhere from 1%-3% gain.*** I am an institutional style trader and I go with the order flow of the market noticing price action more than anything and technicals are always last because throughout my 7+ year trading career I learned many styles and lost a lot of money chasing profits instead of understanding the psychology of trading and emotional intelligence it takes to not trade, but to make consistent profits and not risk my own hard earned money. Hope you take the advice and follow my trade ideas for more I cant post everything but my will be posting them on various platforms for before and afters. ___________ Correlative Pairs: US30 + NAS100 USDZAR + USDMXN XAUUSD + XAGUSD GBPUSD + EURUSD GBPJPY + EURJPY ---- CRYPTO CORRELATIVE PAIRS------ BTCUSD + ETHUSD + XRPUSD
TVC:DXYLong
by Mi3-Legacy-Wealth
DXY create ab=cd pattern. So BUY Now..... N.B-In this situation DXY chart create ab=cd pattern. So, Market needs seems to sell correction To Support Zone. Then market fully bullish 100.400 AND 100.850 Resistance Zone. AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals. If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad.
TVC:DXYLong
by AronnoFx
DXY US Dollar: Historical ComparisonToday I am charting the The US Dollar Index (DXY) on a monthly chart over a multi-year period. I am showing a comparison of the DXY price from 1995-2002 with the Price, RSI and MACD resembling the current price, current RSI and current MACD. I circled and highlighted the areas of comparisons. Furthermore, I overlaid the historical price over the current price to see where the top may be before a reversal. Shockingly that price range is very close to my DXY price on the January 27, 2022 Idea I showed. Check that chart out as well! When zooming out, the US Dollar price looks very bullish in the long-term. This is a monthly chart so please be patient with price action. What are your opinions on this? I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:DXYLong
by MillionaireEconomics
4
DXY Retest or Breakout?US dollar index got very weak in the last week and had a significant drop. Currently, price is in the correction phase and is retracing the bearish move. As you see in the chart, price is approaching to the resistance level at 95.826, and we should wait for its reaction to this level: 1. If price retests the resistance and any valid rejection happens after that, I expect a drop on DXY again, towards the last low at 95.200 2. If price breaks the resistance and closes a bullish candle above this level, It may rise towards the last high at 96.250 Since we are in a downtrend, the bearish bias on DXY is more considered.
TVC:DXY
by Mahtab_Tradia
16
EUR/USD probably a fakeout!Hey tradomaniacs, "Asia's share markets turned negative on Tuesday as two-year U.S. Treasury yields topped 1% for the first time in almost two years with investors weighing the risks of a Fed policy rate rise as soon as March." Read more 👉 www.investing.com This is the reason why I`m concerned about the US-DOLLAR-drop from last week and have the suspicion that we are going to see fakeouts. Do you remember the post about rising yields but the falling US-Dollar and that one of these charts is lying? If we see a continuation of higher yields we can expect US-Dollar to make a huge turn. Also keep in mind that the entire rally during the corona-pandemic was based on the liquidity that has been provided to the market and that we could see more risk-off if the economy continues to cool down / stagnate while the FED is forced to fight inflation. Here are some charts just with key-levels: 1️⃣ AUD/USD 👉 2️⃣ GBP/USD 👉 3️⃣ EUR/USD 👉 I will patiently wait because fakeouts can cause huge momentum to the downside here as soon as finished!
Short
by Trading2ez
6
US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs, chaotic market huh? To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense. I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold. The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation. Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar. Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar. Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month. This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation. Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected. The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral. Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not. This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar. Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra. Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine. Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds). They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates. But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail. Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake. One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
TVC:US10YLong
by Trading2ez
3