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Usdollarforecast

US Dollar Trends:Navigating the Supply Area and Market SentimentAs the trading week began on Monday, the US Dollar (DXY) found itself testing a significant supply area, leading to a period of consolidation within a tight range. This move comes on the heels of disappointing Durable Goods orders data, which has sparked bearish sentiment among traders, prompting a downward shift in the Greenback's value. The Impact of Economic Data The recent Durable Goods orders report fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the resilience of the US economy. Such data often serves as a barometer for economic health, influencing traders' decisions and market dynamics. With this disappointing figure, traders have been quick to react, driving the dollar lower as they reassess their positions. Analyzing Market Sentiment The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a telling shift in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions on the dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—are beginning to accumulate bearish positions. This divergence in sentiment raises an essential question: is there an impending reversal in the dollar's trend? Timing the Market Timing becomes crucial in a market characterized by conflicting signals. While the COT report indicates a potential shift, it’s essential to identify the right entry points. Many analysts believe the DXY could experience another bullish impulse before any significant decline materializes. This potential upward movement may serve to "trap" sellers who have positioned themselves in anticipation of a downturn. Seasonal Patterns and Technical Analysis Adding to the complexity of this scenario is the emergence of a seasonal bearish pattern indicated by forecasters. Seasonal trends often play a critical role in currency movements, and traders must remain vigilant to these patterns when planning their strategies. In conjunction with this seasonal insight, technical analysis reveals a rectangle pattern on the chart, which suggests a defined range of support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to look for entry opportunities within this range, where the likelihood of a price breakout is heightened. Conclusion In conclusion, as the US Dollar navigates this crucial supply area amidst mixed signals from market participants, traders must approach their strategies with caution. Monitoring economic indicators, understanding market sentiment shifts, and analyzing technical patterns will be pivotal in making informed trading decisions. The current environment presents both challenges and opportunities, and identifying the right entry point could be the key to capitalizing on potential market movements. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out. What are your thoughts on the current market conditions, and where do you see the DXY heading next?
TVC:DXY
by FOREXN1
1
U.S. Dollar Index Upward Price Movement Until End of September?Here’s my analysis of the chart: I anticipate an upward movement in the U.S. Dollar Index until the end of September. Please note, this is based solely on time analysis, so the bar charts displayed do not predict future price levels. The trade is still in its early stages, making it relatively low-risk. However, if the price falls below the current candle (first vertical line), this analysis will no longer be valid. Let's see how it plays out, but be prepared to reassess if the price action invalidates the analysis. SpaceIchimoku
TVC:DXYLong
by SpaceIchimoku
US Dollar Gains Traction: Technical Analysis Points to PotentialUS Dollar Gains Traction: Technical Analysis Points to Potential Bullish Impulse The US Dollar (USD) is showing signs of recovery, hovering around the 103.30 level, with US yields rebounding from Friday's dip. The focus shifts to the upcoming Factory Orders report in the US economic calendar. Despite a recent bearish performance, the USD has regained buying interest, bouncing back from the 103.07 area tested earlier during Monday's Asian trading hours. Ongoing speculation surrounds the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate reductions in the spring of 2024, with varying opinions among certain Fed policymaking members. Key Points to Consider Regarding the USD: Consolidative Phase: The index appears consolidative in the low-103.00s, finding stability after hitting three-week lows near 102.40 last week. Broader Picture: The dollar seems under pressure due to growing speculation of interest rate cuts in H1 2024, responding to disinflationary pressures and a gradual labor market cooldown. Support for the Greenback: Despite challenges, the USD receives some support from the resilience of the US economy and a persistent hawkish narrative from select Fed rate setters. Technical Analysis: In the H4 timeframe, the price initiated a retracement after reaching the 102.50 area. This retracement may deepen, targeting a retest of resistance at 104.215 or potentially surpassing it to reach the next level of interest at 105.000. Notably, the USD remains in a bearish momentum, and in the D1 timeframe, the price touched the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Our Forecast: Our analysis points to a potential bullish impulse, with a target set at 104.215. Traders are advised to monitor the technical indicators and market developments for informed decision-making. Alternative Scenario:
TVC:DXY
by FOREXN1
1
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Consolidation & Bearish Bias Explained 💵 Dollar Index is trading within a horizontal trading range on a daily. The price tested the resistance of the range yesterday and formed a doji candle on that. As an extra bearish confirmation, I spotted a double top formation on an hourly time frame. I think that the Index will most likely retrace from the underlined red resistance. Targets: 106.35 / 106.17 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:DXYShort
by VasilyTrader
4
Will DXY USD Rise Due to BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility? Introduction: Traders are often on the lookout for potential opportunities and risks that can impact the forex market. Recently, the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency has come under scrutiny, leading many to wonder if this could fuel a rise in the US Dollar Index (DXY). In this article, we explore current affairs and discuss why traders may consider longing for the dollar amidst these uncertainties. The BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility: The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations have been exploring the possibility of establishing an alternative currency to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This move aimed to challenge the dollar's dominance in international trade and finance. However, recent developments have raised concerns over the credibility of this alternative currency. Factors Affecting BRICS Alternative Currency: 1. Economic Disparities: The BRICS nations vary significantly regarding economic growth, political stability, and fiscal discipline. These disparities can undermine the credibility of the proposed alternative currency, as it requires a solid foundation to gain trust and acceptance in the global market. 2. Political Challenges: The BRICS countries face differing political ideologies, hindering their ability to maintain a unified front. Disagreements over economic policies, trade practices, and geopolitical tensions can weaken the credibility of the alternative currency, potentially favoring the US dollar. 3. Global Economic Uncertainty: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have caused economic uncertainties worldwide. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, further bolstering its value. Why Consider Longing the Dollar? Given the potential challenges faced by the BRICS alternative currency, traders may find it prudent to consider longing the US dollar. Here are a few reasons to support this stance: 1. Safe-Haven Status: The US dollar has historically been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. As market participants seek stability, the dollar strengthens, making it an attractive option for traders. 2. Global Reserve Currency: The US dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. This position grants it significant influence and liquidity, making it a preferred choice for international transactions. Any threat to the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency could further solidify the dollar's dominance. 3. Market Sentiment: Traders often base their decisions on market sentiment. If doubts surrounding the BRICS alternative currency persist, it could lead to a loss of confidence among investors. This shift in opinion may drive them towards the US dollar, potentially causing an upward movement in the DXY. Call-to-Action: Long the Dollar Considering the uncertainties surrounding the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency, traders are urged to evaluate the potential risks and rewards carefully. In light of the factors discussed, longing the US dollar could be a prudent strategy to consider. However, conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with financial advisors to make informed decisions are essential. Conclusion: As the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency faces threats, traders are left wondering about the potential impact on the US dollar. While uncertainties persist, the dollar's safe-haven status, global reserve currency position, and market sentiment may strengthen it. Traders are encouraged to closely monitor market developments and consider longing the dollar as a potential strategy in these uncertain times.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Inflation is NOT over in 2023(Opinion) As the monetary policy of the dollar grinds forward in 2023, our last fed meeting left us with Jerome Powell promising us more rate hikes as 2023 moves forward. How realistic is this though? With things like energy, food, and just about anything cost you can think of skyrocketing in price throughout 2022 and continuing to move up in 2023, it really seems like inflation is still in full effect, regardless of the DXY. Not to even factor in the increasing amount of car, home and other asset repossessions happening in the U.S. and around the world. National salary's averages are not being properly accounted for to fight inflation and the average person with a bank account has lost money in the market since the 2008 financial crisis. Our national debt and debt per tax payer is unfathomable (see U.S. Debt Clock). Where does this all lead to? On our 1-Week chart of the DXY is showing us a massive floor on the CM_Williams_Vix_Fix_Finds Market Bottoms. We're seeing a massive floor from the 1-Day chart as well. Monetarily, the Federal Reserve might get to a point where they HAVE to cut back on raising rates or risk a full on collapse of our monetary system. This will inevitably lead to a major crash in the finance or housing markets, maybe both, that could rival the great depression and have contagion effects world wide.
TVC:DXY
by WatsonsView
US dollar index: DXY bull trend over as inflation cools? DXY fundamental analysis The dollar tumbled after US consumer inflation data fell more than expected in October. Annual headline inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY fell to 7.7% in October, from 8.2% the previous month and below the 8% predicted. The core measure of inflation ECONOMICS:USCIR , which excludes volatile energy and food costs, fell to 6.3% from 6.6%, falling short of expectations (6.5%). The monthly increase in headline inflation was 0.4% instead of the 0.6% that was expected, and the core increase in inflation was 0.3% instead of the 0.5% that was expected. Lower-than-expected US inflation has prompted investors speculating on slower Fed rate hikes in the future. The probabilities for the December meeting have swung in favour of a 50 basis point hike, which is currently factored with an 80% chance, up from 50% before the CPI release. The expected terminal rate at which the Fed's rising cycle will terminate in May 2023 has decreased to 4.80% from 5.08% before to the inflation report. This means that the markets are currently pricing in an increase of just over 75 basis points until May 2023. US 2-year Treasury yields, which reflects expectations for the Fed monetary policy sunk by 26bps to 4.3%. Expectations of Fed terminal increases and rising US 2-year Treasury yields have supported the DXY bull trend throughout the year. Reduced rate hike expectations are bad news for the dollar, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at October's FOMC meeting suggest it's premature to declare the end of the raising cycle. Technical analysis The DXY daily chart would suggest that we may be facing the end of the dollar's bullish trend, as the price action in the November 10th session actually broke down the bullish trendline of 2022, and lowered even further than the 50-day moving average. However, for a confirmation of that trend reversal in the DXY, we should likely wait until major Fibonacci retracement levels are cleared by price action. The next level of support is 107.1 (38.2% Fibonacci level of 2022 range), followed by 104.7, which would represent a 50% retracement of the 2022 dollar rally. If bears can break through that barrier, it would mean that they will be in charge of the dollar trend. However, if the Fed pushes back against the slowdown in the inflation rate and signals a more restrictive monetary policy than the market is actually pricing in, we might see some bulls reappear on DXY dip. This contrarian scenario, which seems less likely for the market, could effectively limit the downward movement of the USD.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Capitalcom
US dollar index (DXY): Rising Treasury yields boost the dollarThe federal funds rate was increased by 75 basis points at the FOMC meeting in November to a range of 3.75 and 4%, as widely expected. The press conference of Chairman Jerome Powell was more hawkish than imagined. The Fed Chair remarked that there is still work to be done in terms of rate hikes and that the peak of interest rates would be higher than previously thought, probably referring to the median FOMC predictions made in September (4.6%). The statement also indicated that monetary policy will remain restrictive for some time, and Powell stated that stopping rate hikes is too far away at this point. In addition, the Chair reaffirmed that the cost of undertightening is higher than that of overtightening. This is due to the fact that the Fed still does not see any meaningful progress on inflation, while the labour market continues to be exceptionally tight. As a result of Powell's comments, the market has revised its forecast for Fed rate hikes for next year higher, to an expected 5.1%. US 2-year yields spiked to 4.7%, updating fresh highs and reaching July 2007 levels. Throughout the year, the US dollar DXY index has been increasingly associated with US short-term yields (2-year), with the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient standing at a very high level of 0.91. US 2-year rates may increase further after the November FOMC meeting to reflect elevated market expectations for the Fed's terminal interest rate. This keeps the dollar on a bullish trend for longer. A rise in 2-year yields up to the 5% mark, would likely imply a rally in the DXY index up to 115 levels. The speed of the move will hinge on Friday's US non-farm payrolls data and next week's US CPI data. Higher-than-anticipated numbers for the US employment report and inflation will solidify the Fed's hawkish stance and accelerate the dollar's advance.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Capitalcom