Get started

Usdollarlong

U.S. Dollar Index Upward Price Movement Until End of September?Here’s my analysis of the chart: I anticipate an upward movement in the U.S. Dollar Index until the end of September. Please note, this is based solely on time analysis, so the bar charts displayed do not predict future price levels. The trade is still in its early stages, making it relatively low-risk. However, if the price falls below the current candle (first vertical line), this analysis will no longer be valid. Let's see how it plays out, but be prepared to reassess if the price action invalidates the analysis. SpaceIchimoku
TVC:DXYLong
by SpaceIchimoku
Betting on a Stronger Dollar Greenback Gets ExpensiveThe US dollar is soaring, and investors are scrambling to jump on the bandwagon. This surge in demand is reflected in the options market, where the cost of betting on further dollar appreciation has reached its highest point since November 2023. This trend highlights the growing confidence in the US economy's resilience, prompting a flight to safety in the greenback. Several factors are fueling the dollar's current strength. Firstly, the US economy continues to demonstrate surprising resilience in the face of global headwinds. Recent data, such as stronger-than-expected retail sales figures, has prompted investors to pare back bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This shift in expectations has bolstered the appeal of the dollar relative to other currencies. Secondly, the turmoil in global markets is driving investors towards safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation across the globe are creating uncertainty, pushing investors to seek the relative stability offered by the US dollar. The dollar's long-standing reputation as a reserve currency makes it a natural destination for these risk-averse investors. This surge in demand for the dollar is evident across the foreign exchange market. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, has climbed to a five-month high. The dollar has already notched up impressive gains against major rivals like the yen, reaching a 34-year high, and strengthening significantly against the euro, pound, and several other currencies. This bullish sentiment towards the dollar is spilling over into the options market. Investors seeking to profit from a continued rise in the dollar's value are increasingly turning to call options. However, this increased demand comes at a cost. The premium, or the upfront cost, of buying these call options has risen significantly. This surge in option prices indicates that investors are willing to pay a higher price to secure their bets on a stronger dollar. The trend in the options market presents a mixed bag for investors. On the one hand, the rising cost of call options suggests that the market is anticipating further dollar appreciation. This could be a lucrative opportunity for those who correctly predict the dollar's trajectory. On the other hand, the higher premiums eat into potential profits, making successful bets on the dollar more challenging. Looking ahead, the future path of the dollar hinges on several key factors. The trajectory of the US economy, the actions of the Federal Reserve, and the evolution of global geopolitical and economic conditions will all play a role in determining the dollar's strength. Despite the uncertainties, the current trend suggests a continued period of dollar dominance. Investors, however, should carefully consider the increased costs of betting on the dollar in the options market and ensure their strategies account for these elevated premiums. This is a dynamic situation, and close monitoring of both economic data and market movements will be crucial for navigating the ever-evolving currency landscape.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY - (very!) Long; Welcome to the "new" American Century!Globalization is dead. The fat lady has sang, the dirt is piled high next to the hole in the ground, obituaries read, notices had been long mailed to all the parties concerned. All there is left to do now is to show up at the funeral - provided you are not too busy starving or freezing to death, or otherwise engaged with similarly pressing diversions. This IS the end of the world, as far as those currently alive came to know it. How could one tell? ... By simply doing the math - while reflecting on the known laws of physics. The following is more of a brief recap, rather than short term trading advise. Nevertheless, if in doubt, this is a USD Long call, the size of Montana! 1) "Things" are 10-30 times cheaper to "float" (energy-/cost-wise) than any possible form of land transport. E.g. if you are Germany (the EU) or China, and are fully dependent on external food and energy sources, and have zero (0) effective long-range navy to protect any essential shipping lines ... Digg up your heirloom calendars from the previous century because they will come very handy, once again. (Not to mention that purchasing a new calendar will not be within your means.) That quintessential and necessarily socialist - arguably fascist - EU slant will make matters even worse, if that'd be any way possible. [France is the only likely winner in Europe, or rather in this case, the lone escapee. That nation's healthy pessimism - the deepest in the world, according to surveys - is also likely to be a notable plus, right about now.] 2) The "Green (renewable) Revolution" is a fantasy - Including the "EV Revolution" Yes, lithium is light and plenty BUT it is also one of the least energy dense metals in the periodic table of elements. (I.e. it can't move "things"! - By itself, it'd be like pissing in the wind.) One needs to mix it with "something" - like Cadmium, the ONLY source of which is literarily one of the most remote places on earth, in the Democratic Republic of ____ ___, which is neither democratic nor a republic - nor a state or a country. E.g. No on demand availability = No renewable energy. Not to mention the energy costs - like aluminium, etc. - just in the production of the necessary infrastructure. In short, no technology exists, at present, which would have a chance to make the whole idea viable, by any tangible means, measure, or foresight. 3) China - is "dead". It is already in the process of passing that proverbial water buffalo which the Chinese Dragon has swallowed a little ways back and as of this year (2023) it is in a full fledged, unmitigated demographic collapse. Ain't no fixin' that, ya'll! To make things even more inconvenient, China has the longest (food + energy) supply lines, possible on this planet. (Some of those even longer than the other side of the world .) Count on a - once again - rural China with 800 million subsistence gardeners by 2035, starting now! 4) Russia That 1/6th of dry land on this globe has got everything! Except all the good stuff is well over a 1000 miles inland - and still in the ground! -, not to mention all of it being totally land locked. (Refer to "1") E.g. Potential issues with reliance on Russian supply lines has similar connotations to the overpopulation issue on Mars. 5) Africa For real? ... Not! 6) South America They have everything , pretty much. Just as most of it is also land-locked. But since that whole chunk of the planet is squarely in the N. American zone of interests, simply chuck it up as an integral part of NAFTA. ... leaving only one, single country /block that posses ample domestic food and energy resources, combined with incomparable industrial and military strength and reach, not to mention a sufficiently large internal market, including a (still) favorable demographic - that is also optimally dispersed -, to do as it pleases, as long as it pleases, to/for whom it pleases: "Fortress America".
TVC:DXYLong
by Nemo_Confidat
13
Dollar Show Signs of Flat Price Action until Year-End Here is an important update regarding the current state of the dollar and its potential price action for the remainder of the year. It is crucial to approach the subject with caution and consider the implications for your investment decisions. Over the past few months, the dollar has exhibited signs of flat price movement, showing limited volatility and a lack of clear direction. This trend is likely to persist until the end of the year, as various economic factors and market uncertainties continue to influence its performance. While it is tempting to engage in active investing in the Dollar Index (DXY) during such periods, it is important to exercise prudence and carefully evaluate the potential risks involved. The lack of significant movement in the dollar can make it challenging to achieve substantial returns within a short timeframe. Considering these circumstances, I encourage you to pause your DXY investing activities and reassess your strategies accordingly. It is crucial to remain vigilant and closely monitor market developments, as sudden shifts in global economic dynamics or geopolitical events could potentially disrupt the current flat price action. As traders, it is essential to adapt to the prevailing market conditions and adjust our investment approaches accordingly. This period of relative stability in the dollar can provide an opportunity to diversify our portfolios and explore alternative investment options that may offer better potential returns. I urge you to consider this cautious approach and take the necessary time to evaluate your investment strategies. By doing so, you can ensure that your capital is deployed wisely and in alignment with the prevailing market dynamics. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you continued success in your trading endeavors.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Dollar Index -> Plain And SimpleMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only focus on price action and market structure 🖥️ I am trading the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on the Dollar Index. Over the past couple of years, the Dollar Index has been trading in a quite solid rising channel and jusr recently perfectly retested and already started to reject the psychological $102 level. I do expect more continuation towards the upside to retest the upper resistance trendline. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - When the market moves where, and how, and if - these are all unknown. The only thing which you can control is your risk. - Philip Basic Trading - Keep the long term vision🫡
TVC:DXYLong
by basictradingtv
25
Celebrating the Soaring US Dollar and Its Impact on Oil and the The US dollar has been on an impressive rise, leading to a remarkable domino effect on the oil market while simultaneously lowering the Euro. Let's dive into the details and explore the exciting opportunities this presents for all of us! First and foremost, let's celebrate the recent surge in the US dollar. This upward trajectory has been fueled by a combination of robust economic indicators, positive investor sentiment, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining a stable currency. As traders, we understand the significance of a strong US dollar, and it's time to capitalize on this favorable trend! The rising US dollar has an immediate impact on the oil market, as it becomes more expensive for countries with weaker currencies to purchase oil. This translates into increased demand for the US dollar in oil transactions, further driving up its value. So, let's keep an eye on the oil market and identify potential trading opportunities that can be leveraged to our advantage. Simultaneously, the Euro has experienced a decline against the US dollar. This can be attributed to various factors, including economic uncertainties, political developments, and the divergence in monetary policies between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. As traders, we can seize this opportunity to capitalize on the Euro's weakness and further strengthen our positions in the US dollar. Now, let's move on to the call-to-action! I encourage each and every one of you to continue to long the US dollar, as it shows no signs of slowing down. By strategically aligning our trading decisions with this ongoing trend, we can maximize our profits and achieve extraordinary success in the currency markets. Remember, timing is crucial in the world of trading, and the current market conditions are ripe for us to make a significant impact. Stay informed, keep a close eye on the latest economic news, and utilize the tools at our disposal to make well-informed trading decisions. As always, I am here to support and guide you on this exciting journey. If you have any questions, need assistance, or simply want to share your success stories, please don't hesitate to comment. Let's make the most of this golden opportunity and continue to thrive in the world of trading! Wishing you fruitful trades and abundant profits!
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
Will DXY USD Rise Due to BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility? Introduction: Traders are often on the lookout for potential opportunities and risks that can impact the forex market. Recently, the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency has come under scrutiny, leading many to wonder if this could fuel a rise in the US Dollar Index (DXY). In this article, we explore current affairs and discuss why traders may consider longing for the dollar amidst these uncertainties. The BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility: The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations have been exploring the possibility of establishing an alternative currency to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This move aimed to challenge the dollar's dominance in international trade and finance. However, recent developments have raised concerns over the credibility of this alternative currency. Factors Affecting BRICS Alternative Currency: 1. Economic Disparities: The BRICS nations vary significantly regarding economic growth, political stability, and fiscal discipline. These disparities can undermine the credibility of the proposed alternative currency, as it requires a solid foundation to gain trust and acceptance in the global market. 2. Political Challenges: The BRICS countries face differing political ideologies, hindering their ability to maintain a unified front. Disagreements over economic policies, trade practices, and geopolitical tensions can weaken the credibility of the alternative currency, potentially favoring the US dollar. 3. Global Economic Uncertainty: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have caused economic uncertainties worldwide. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, further bolstering its value. Why Consider Longing the Dollar? Given the potential challenges faced by the BRICS alternative currency, traders may find it prudent to consider longing the US dollar. Here are a few reasons to support this stance: 1. Safe-Haven Status: The US dollar has historically been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. As market participants seek stability, the dollar strengthens, making it an attractive option for traders. 2. Global Reserve Currency: The US dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. This position grants it significant influence and liquidity, making it a preferred choice for international transactions. Any threat to the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency could further solidify the dollar's dominance. 3. Market Sentiment: Traders often base their decisions on market sentiment. If doubts surrounding the BRICS alternative currency persist, it could lead to a loss of confidence among investors. This shift in opinion may drive them towards the US dollar, potentially causing an upward movement in the DXY. Call-to-Action: Long the Dollar Considering the uncertainties surrounding the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency, traders are urged to evaluate the potential risks and rewards carefully. In light of the factors discussed, longing the US dollar could be a prudent strategy to consider. However, conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with financial advisors to make informed decisions are essential. Conclusion: As the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency faces threats, traders are left wondering about the potential impact on the US dollar. While uncertainties persist, the dollar's safe-haven status, global reserve currency position, and market sentiment may strengthen it. Traders are encouraged to closely monitor market developments and consider longing the dollar as a potential strategy in these uncertain times.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Analyst.Hello everyone! I want share my idea about dollar index. On dollar we have pretty bearish trend which is close to 1W support from where it showed us a small uptrend but today it came up from broken support with big impulsive candles. what does it mean? its look like double bottom and its positive for dollar bullish scene and what we need for that? we have here price divergence, divergence most time show us price start opposite direction, for that I can share my price prediction long side, only for that we need brake first down trendline and then 102.700 resistance, after retest on broke resistance we can open our long position. That's all, I think next week we will see real dollar price movement, if it will continue trend then we will see what it will do on week support which is on 101.100
TVC:DXYLong
by elmakacho
The march to an inevitable North American world hegemony is ...... picking up pace. - A lot, lately! TLTR The war in the Ukraine was essentially over the day it began. Now, with western interests notably starting to fade, it will start to make it's way to the back pages of daily reportage. Why was this even an issue of US interests, to begin with? ... Washington had this far fetched dream - although, not entirely without historical bases - to create a Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian superstate , entirely funded on US interests, unifying over 80 million people, populating 5 million square kilometers, right up against the Russian Federation and China's western sphere of interests. Nice try! The real problem with this wishful thinking is multi-fold. While those above mentioned peoples do have a lot of similarities in culture, language and historically undesirable (for them) outcomes, the facts remain the same; - Ukrainians do not play well with others! Notably one of the most chauvinist cultures, their mistreatment of minorities is (or should be!) rapidly becoming legendary, the largest of which are the Poles; - "My enemy's (i.e. Russia) enemy is my friend." - As incredibly profound as that may sound, it also makes for extremely unstable, impossible to maintain alliances; - The Organization of Turkic States (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey) do have a lot to say about this and, not surprisingly, they do not approve - to say the least; - Then there is Turkey (a regional super power) which, not in the least, together with China, had managed nothing less than to broker a piece between Iran and Saudi Arabia; In summary, a now defacto Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Turkish coalition is enough to make even the United States to stop and think twice what it's wisest next step may be, in the region. OK, so no big deal. The US blew ~7% of it's annual defense budget on this still-born idea but, since it can, will likely call it a day , in the very near future. The EU , which is essentially nothing more than a German franchise, is looking at it's End of Days . The German industrial base managed to go 0-3, much like on the two previous occasions when they fielded their dream team , an outcome that is all but inevitable. Any doubt?! ... Just this week Volkswagen and BASF both announced that they are "considering to explore their North American options with regard to future investments". That is the German Industrial Base ! - Apparently looking to seek asylum in the US. German infrastructure and industry, which took over 30 years to build, only took two(2) short years to gut and to irreversibly break apart. No shock, there. Germans always had to be the best at whatever was the vogue of the day and clearly, self-mutilation and ultimately, economic suicide, not being an exception. (I spent a lot of time in Germany and to get a Wifi signal - cellular or otherwise -, the quality and frequency is right up there with Lebanon's. German pensioners blow their retirements on turtle neck sweaters because state sanctioned energy cut-backs simply turn off their central heating in the middle of January. The fastest growing manufacturing sector, as of right now, is wood-burning stoves! - The effect of which on the lumber industry is interesting, in itself but that's a whole other conversation.) Germany's largest trading partner is China! (40% of exports.) Chine is notably not found of the present, vigorous German ra-ra which would have the average mainstream news consumer believe that Kiev has won the war last christmas and that right now, Polish troops are storming the walls of the Kremlin, under German leadership. E.g. China, ultimately, does have an awful lot of pull in the case of German foreign policy and, lately, Beijing's patience appears to be wearing thin. Long story short; "It's been nice signing with you Coco, but it's over!" - Bet on it! China is dying! (Present tense.) As stated previously, the inescapable reality of a demographic collapse - it's first, truly major wave - is descending on China at the time of this writing. A total of 1/2 (50%) of China's population will not celebrate New Years Eve, 2035! - Leaving about 800 Million de-industrialized, de-urbanized, subsistence farmers in it's wake, by the middle of the next decade. As rapid extinctions go, this one is for the books. (As a personal reflection perhaps of mild interest, I have spent some time in the Mekong Delta, planting rice - just to see what it's all about. Afterwards I can safely state that there is no more expensive crop or an other, more soul-sucking, endlessly laborious occupation than rice farming! As for automation? ... What automation?! - It will never happen! To grow rice is a 24/7, all out battle with Nature, which uses up every living thing - including people and the environment - in a merciless fashion. I, personally, would much rather go back to pyramid building, as one of the slaves. My point being; Can anyone imagine china without rice? - ) In short, if there ever was a sure thing , this is it! (Feel free to do the rest of the math - i.e. a world without China.) Now, having argued why "everyone dies, except for the USA" , that, of course, is not the same as all of them will walk off into the sunset with a whimper . (Although, under the circumstances, even that isn't very far fetched.) Who will be able to muster at least a last, dying spasm, is yet to be seen but if it happens it will be violent! Be prepared! "Crises take much longer to unfold and run much deeper than anyone would expect." All that is outlined above is already happening (no more "unfolding" ) and perhaps with traders' typically myopic view, a lot that is about to hit the fan could seem "unexpected", at that moment. Don't be caught off guard! Trade it with the lay-of-the-land in mind and make the most of what promises to be a once in many-generation opportunity. EUR/USD Short Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); USD/CNH Long Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); US Equities & Treasuries over any off-shore, Bias p.s. The US of A still maintains marginally beneficial demographics, with no near term dangers on the horizon. On the top of that, it also boast one of the few optimally dispersed populations - from a systemic point of view. E.g. "Globalization", in reality, is just a less pointed pseudonym for US world hegemony.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
8