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Usdollarshort

What Will 2023 Be Like For Major Economies? Market AnalysisKey events: USA – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) USA – JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) USA – FOMC Meeting Minutes The classic year-end reviews here and there reminded us of the exceptional nature of the past year: the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the energy and food price shock, serious problems in the labor market, inflation that exceeded the central banks' target rates several times, which led to a tightening of monetary policy on the "whatever it takes" principle, etc. US core inflation rate Last year was a year of fundamental changes and a shift in geopolitical and economic benchmarks. Looking ahead, we can say that 2023 will see a change in the direction of key economic variables. Core inflation should fall significantly, central bank rates should reach their cyclical peak, and the U.S. and eurozone will spend part of the year in recession. 2023 can be considered a transitional year, paving the way for further disinflation, a gradual decline in rates, and a soft recovery in 2024. Finally, the U.S. and the eurozone should spend part of the year in recession. This can be seen as the price to be paid to bring inflation back under control with tight monetary policy. Recessions are disinflationary because low demand reduces the price power of companies and slows wage growth. US federal funds rate This means that 2023 can be seen as a transition year, paving the way for gradual normalization in 2024. Normalization means a significant narrowing of the gap between observed and target inflation, allowing central banks to begin cutting interest rates, probably in the first half of 2024. This outlook should support investor appetite for risk and increase household and firm confidence, thereby contributing to the economic recovery. While these general trends look very likely, the devil is in the details. The transition period in 2023 may be bumpier than expected. The baseline scenario calls for a short and shallow recession thanks to a few resilience factors, but the downturn could be more severe than expected. Possible causes could be a new, significant, and prolonged increase in gas prices or a slower-than-expected decline in inflation, which could raise fears of rising interest rates and thereby hit demand. Rising rates in the past may also have a greater impact than expected, especially on the housing market and credit conditions. Another question concerns normalization in 2024: What will it look like? This question is important because expectations about the nature of the economic recovery will influence the decisions of firms and households this year. The list of drivers of the recovery is long, but there is nonetheless reason to expect that the recovery will be mild, for at least two reasons. Traditionally, central banks aggressively cut interest rates when the economy enters a recession, but inflation will still be too high in this cycle. The rate cuts should come later and be more gradual than usual because of the slow decline in core inflation. This means less stimulus for final demand. Another factor is labor shortages. Companies are having trouble filling vacancies, which will likely make them reluctant to lay off staff during a recession. However, this also means slow job growth during the recovery.
FX:USDOLLARShort
by FOREXN1
25
AW US Dollar Analysis - Expect Lower Prices From Here...Due to an interest in the potential bullish price action in the Aussie dollar I thought it would be a good idea to analyze this chart at the smaller degree. If this analysis is accurate, then we should see the US Dollar fall from current levels. This will likely also pull crypto prices higher: eventually. Of course, we are dealing with probabilities anytime we analyze a chart, but I also did the same in 2020 when the DXY was declining. The same concepts apply here but this time the waves are easier to read due to the same type of 5-wave move expected in the EURUSD. If you don't know what I mean by that I will link the "examining the correlations" video down below along with the latest Aussie Dollar idea. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
TVC:DXYShort
by AriasWave
1
GBPUSD sell ideaAs you can see from our chart we have 2 possible zones for GBPUSD to either reverse or pullback from... same rules apply to all and along with pairs, we have a bullish move so dont expect it to reverse without showing us a clear reason for it to do so... by hitting our higher zone we will testing a daily/weekly POI so we will 100% see a reaction of some kind! BUT be careful with how you trade this and remember not to hunt that trade you want to take.....just follow what price is telling you! most inner structures are locked in so we only have our expansion move left to reach out to or untouched areas! watch and react accordingly! If you like this idea show us below HIT THAT LIKE & SHARE BUTTON
Short
by PipSurfingSociety
USDCHF:US DOLLAR BULLS STRUGGLEThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which had risen for three days, started to decline early on Tuesday morning, reaching 111.50. The index of the US dollar versus the six major currencies, which also tracks down US Treasury rates, reflects the market's concern ahead of the crucial central bank pronouncements and the US jobs numbers. The US dollar seems to have been under pressure due to the dismal US figures and forecasts for additional drops in oil prices and inflation. US President Joe Biden on Monday asked oil and gas businesses to use their record profits to lower costs for Americans and increase production, or face a higher tax rate, as he battles high pump prices with elections taking place in a week. We expect the pair to head lower
Short
by TradeyMarkets
US Dollar index forecast ahead of CPI US dollar bulls have seemingly halted their accension as they wait for the U.S. inflation data that is due this Tuesday. The market is predicting that August's headline CPI may edge lower by 0.1%, further strengthening the case that US inflation has peaked. Even so, it is said that the US dollar has priced in an 85% chance of a 75-basis-points rate hike from the US Federal Reserve next week, Wednesday. Fed chair Jerome Powell has reiterated several times over the past few weeks that the central bank is not yet looking to taper off the pace of their rate hikes. Looking at the current price action solidifying ahead of the CPI, the DXY pulls back after the RSI reaches above the 70 level, highlighted in the circle, signaling that the price is overbought. The dollar index fell to a one-week low of 108.900, just below an area that has recently acted as a pivoting point. The wick from last week’s last candle suggests that a demand zone might be causing a firm rejection below 108.900, at least until the CPI data remains unknown for the next 48 hours. It may be too soon to say that the upwards momentum has been disassembled. As such, the expectation of a bullish push is still in play, and the price may still reach targets suggested by the Auto Fib Retracement Indicator. Targets in play include last week's peak at 110.700, and 111.950 a little further afield. The DXY price closing within the plausible demand zone at 108.000 - 109.000 will open the DXY to bearish price targets indicated on the chart, including 107.300, 106.750, and 106.200.
BLACKBULL:DX.F
by BlackBull_Markets
How long will EUR/USD parity last? After the EURUSD reached and broke below parity, an analysis of the situation is in order. Last week, the euro failed to close above 1.0320 and the 50-Day Moving Average, presenting a potential bull trap and setting up the opportunity for short sellers, as illustrated by the orange circle. Although the pair broke below the parity on August 22, a decent pullback is on the table, as investors become uncomfortable with the unusual valuation of the pair. One only has to look back to July 14, to witness the pullback in the EUR/USD after an intraday probing of the parity level. Bears should remember that we might still be in the middle of a downward leg. So, the medium-term decline may extend to new depths. 0.9900 has already been tested and rejected but a more granular look at the candles might be necessary at this point. The intraday battle The EUR/USD spent most of its time consolidating below parity, organizing near 0.9930, before the London opening and strong European data was released. On the hourly chart, you can see the first of the two big blue candles forming after consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 2.1 points in August, from a record low of -27 in July. Consumer confidence was expected to slide further into negative territory, so the upwards revision came as a surprise to the markets. Two subsequent hourly candle wicks broke above parity to test the staying power of a below-parity EUR/USD. For now, Support is building below 0.9960. In the short term, the market might need to work a lot to take out buyers at 0.9900.
by BlackBull_Markets