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USDRUB

Russian Ruble CRUSHED! Lost The War!Russian Ruble FX_IDC:USDRUB is getting destroyed! Russia with an economy half the size of California can never go up against 60% of the global GDP while killing off nearly 1 million able-bodied men out of their economy. Corruption is out of control, 35% of the economy is allocated to the war, not future investment. Russia is suffering from Dutch Disease As usual #MMT gets it wrong again! As highlighted. So did the "sanctions don't work" crowd
Long
by RealMacro
4
Is Russia's Financial Fortress Built on Shifting Sands?The transformation of Russia's financial system has been nothing short of seismic. Once deeply integrated with global markets, Moscow's monetary landscape now finds itself in a state of radical reconfiguration, navigating the turbulent waters of international isolation. This shift carries profound implications, not just for Russia, but for the very foundations of the global financial order. At the heart of this evolution lies the Russian Central Bank, whose Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, has found herself at the center of an unprecedented storm. Tasked with controlling inflation amid soaring interest rates, Nabiullina faces a growing chorus of dissent from Russia's business elite - a rare and significant development in a country where corporate voices have long remained muted. This internal conflict underscores the delicate balance the Central Bank must strike, as it seeks to stabilize the ruble and safeguard economic growth in the face of crippling Western sanctions. Russia's financial system has demonstrated remarkable adaptability, forging new international partnerships and developing alternative payment mechanisms. Yet, these adaptations come at a cost, as increased transaction costs, reduced transparency, and limited access to global markets reshape the country's economic landscape. Consumer behavior, too, has evolved, with Russians increasingly turning to cash transactions and yuan-denominated assets, further signaling the shift away from traditional Western financial systems. As Russia navigates this uncharted territory, the implications extend far beyond its borders. The reconfiguration of its financial architecture is shaping new models for sanctions resistance, the emergence of parallel banking networks, and a potential realignment of global currency trading patterns. The lessons learned from Russia's experience may well influence the future of international economic relationships, challenging long-held assumptions about the resilience of the global financial order.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024. As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat. The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost. As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions. Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
MOEX Russia Index. The epic 52-weeks breakthrough expectedRussia’s trapped domestic investors push stock market to 2-years high. Russia’s stock market (so-called, Moscow Exchange Index MOEX:IMOEX ) has climbed recently to its highest level in 2 years as domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go snap up the dividend-paying stocks that sold off heavily following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A rise of more than 100 per cent since March, 2022 low has pushed the MOEX index to levels last hit in early February 2022, before Russian President Vladimir Putin announces so-called "special military operation" that sent Russia’s equity market into freefall. The market’s partial rebound over the two years has come despite the imposition of countless western sanctions designed to cripple Russia’s financial system. The Kremlin responded to the measures by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts. Due to U.S. Department of Treasury and Euroclear sanctions, money is trapped. Where do you put it but on the exchange? Deprived of investment opportunities abroad (because of stupid, a nazi-like sanctions), Russians have piled their savings into the likes of Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank, which combined account for about 40 per cent of the stock market’s total value. “Russian retail investors have always been about dividends,” said Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank. The Russian stock market’s recent rally bears some resemblance to the surprisingly strong performance of the Borsa Istanbul 100 last year. Russia’s economy has also held up better than expected. For many domestic Russian retail investors, nothing has changed compared to before the conflicted started, as the economy is doing OK. Big dividend payers like state-owned Sberbank, whose shares are up 71 per cent trailing 12 months, are attractive to most Russians and now they’re some of the few investment options available.  Even so, foreign investors not banned by sanctions have kept well clear of the Moex since an exodus last February, when central bank figures show non-residents shed about Rbs170bn ($2.2bn) worth of Russian stocks. Trading volumes on the Moex slumped 41 per cent year on year in 2022. There is a “close-to-zero chance” that foreigners whose Russian holdings have in effect been frozen will be allowed to sell out of their positions. Perhaps there could be an artificial settlement, some kind of exchange for holdings frozen for Russian investors outside of Russia. In technical terms, IMOEX graph is near to break 52-weeks highs, following 26-weeks SMA, with further upside opportunities to reach 4000 points and new historical highs.
RUS:IRUS
by Pandorra
USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target: This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it. At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib. We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0). Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
Macro Economics- BRICS Oil Nations, GDPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit was held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023. There have been some important updates that concluded from this summit and if you're an active trader / speculator in the Forex, stocks or commodities market, you NEED to know about this. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) now control 30% of the entire global economy. This is up from 17% in 2000 and 23% in 2010 . The BRICS countries are also home to 42% of the world's population. Incase you missed the previous article, find it here: BRICS Total GDP With New Members: B razil: $2.08 trillion R ussia: $2.06 trillion I ndia: $3.74 trillion C hina: $19.37 trillion S outh Africa: $399 billion Saudi Arabia: $1.06 trillion Argentina: $641 billion UAE: $499 billion Egypt: $387 billion Iran: $367 billion Ethiopia: $156 billion BRICS will now control 30% of the global economy. If you're invested in any BRICS related stocks or Forex markets, this concerns you! The summit outcomes are expected to lead to a weaker US dollar in the near term. This means that currencies against the dollar will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. The outcomes of this summit lead to proposed increased investment in the BRICS economies. This could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
19
Forex & Stocks: Capitalize on BRICS2023Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit is being held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023 and will undoubtedly affect the Forex market. The main reason for this, is the commonly know agenda of BRICS to implement a new reserve currency instead of the USD. More details on that topic here: The 5 Forex markets we'll consider are: FX_IDC:USDINR FX:USDCNH FX_IDC:USDRUB FX_IDC:USDBRL FX:USDZAR As we can clearly see from the charts, from a Cycle / Phase analysis, it is dire time for the USD to correct as we see top outs in basically all of the charts Don't be surprised if it goes UP first, then down (sell the news but in reverse for the BRICS currencies). The summit is being hosted by South Africa, which is the current chair of BRICS. The other members of BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The summit is expected to focus on the war in Ukraine, the global economy, and the expansion of BRICS. The theme of the summit is "BRICS and Africa: Intra-BRICS cooperation for sustainable development in Africa". Russia's President Vladimir Putin is not attending the summit in person due to the international arrest warrant issued against him for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He is being represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The summit is expected to boost investor confidence in the BRICS economies. This is because the summit will provide an opportunity for the BRICS leaders to discuss ways to strengthen their economic cooperation and coordination. This could lead to increased investment in the BRICS economies, which would boost their growth prospects. Top Stocks to consider are: 1. Petrobras (PBR) is the largest oil and gas company in Brazil. NYSE:PBR 2. Sberbank (SBER) is the largest bank in Russia. MOEX:SBER 3. State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest bank in India. BSE:SBIN 4. China Mobile (CHL) is the largest mobile phone company in China. MIL:CHL 5. Tencent (TCEHY) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. OTC:TCEHY 6. Alibaba (BABA) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. NYSE:BABA 7. Vale (VALE) is a Brazilian multinational mining company. NYSE:VALE 8. PetroChina (PTR) is the largest oil and gas company in China. SSE:601857 9. ONGC (ONGC) is the largest oil and gas company in India. NSE:ONGC 10. Infosys (INFY) is an Indian multinational information technology company. NSE:INFY The summit is also expected to lead to a weaker US dollar. This means that the other currencies against the dollar as listed on the 4 charts will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. If the summit leads to increased investment in the BRICS economies, it could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar. A great way to capitalize on the outcome of BRCIS 2023, is to anticipate and keep an eye out on markets that will potentially be positively affected by this summit. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
44
USDRUB updatePrice has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure. Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future. 1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity ( less than 50 rubles) for further up movement to 137 rubles (sellers liquidity swap). 2 scenario: price continues an uptrend straight away to 137 rubles after what big drop will take place to 50 rubles (less than 50 rubles). In my subjective opinion first scenario is more likely to happen. But for me 96 rubles level isn't a final line for a drop. If we go to lower timeframes we will see imbalance at 110 rubles level. So I'm waiting price to reach 113 rubles (fibo + 1W order block) and then look for shorts. Let's see how it'll go on :)
by margarita_morozova
1
A high geopolitical risk causes Russian ruble to dropNo new known macroeconomic factors could cause the current ruble devaluation. They say sanctions, some say a drop in imports ECONOMICS:RUIMP , others drop in exports ECONOMICS:RUEXP , brain drain, discounts on Russian oil, etc. Some blame the Prigozhin mutiny, but it doesn't change economic or political perspectives of Russia. In my opinion, all these factors are in the price. The events, except the contained mutiny, haven't appeared suddenly. The situation has been evolving since previous February. All mentioned factors were discussed and evaluated a hundred times by pundits, exporters, importers, traders, and others. I agree that Russian international trade is in bad shape, but not in the worst. Russian current account ECONOMICS:RUCA is still positive. It continues its drop from the historical highs reached last year to the depressed level of 2015. It is not a catastrophe compared with peers, having a worse current account and weaker national currencies, though are not sanctioned. You are reading a thankless type of forecast . I can't prove it with macro, but the determined bullish trend hints foreign currency buyers are aggressive because something forces them to sell rubles. I believe the current drop in the Russian ruble is caused by an anticipated huge geopolitical event that may have far-reaching consequences for Russia, like 24 February 2022. Before that date the ruble was oversold. Russia had a strong macro (robust current account on the back of high petroleum and metal prices.) During those three months, only newspapers disturbed with publications Russian would attack. It could partly exert pressure on ruble, but because the attack wasn't started, it became the boy who cried wolf. I can't prove it, but I suppose, that only a few people close to Putin could know what would happen and sell rubles and open short positions causing ruble fatigue before the war. Last week's ruble devaluation reminiscent me of the oversold ruble in February 2022. I hypothesize that people close to the Russian head are fearing some event in the nearest future. Those people, let's call them oligarchs, could sell rubles now or open shorts to hedge if the event happens. From the macroeconomic view, it is pure capital flight. The fear may be related to a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant disaster and the West prospective actions. If something extraordinary happens, I won't be surprised if USD spikes to the previous high of 150 in several weeks (to the star of the Kremlin tower pattern drawn in spring 2022). If nothing occurs during the next 2-4 weeks, I expect ruble sellers to cool off and ruble retreat to 85 .
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3
Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 MonthsMutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months In one of the most turbulent trading sessions this year, the Russian ruble reached its lowest point against the US dollar in nearly 15 months on Monday. This decline followed the failed mutiny attempt by The Wagner group’s armed mercenaries over the weekend, which caused significant concern among traders. Initially catapulting to approximately 87 rubles per US dollar, the ruble later recovered some of its losses, settling at around 84.40, down 0.90% against the greenback. The Wagner group, led by troops loyal to their leader, made an unexpected advancement toward Moscow, covering hundreds of miles before eventually reversing course. In a deal struck with the Kremlin, it is reported that the group's leader, Prigozhin, will go into exile in Belarus. This incident is regarded as the most significant challenge to Vladimir Putin's rule and could weaken his leadership. The armed uprising also caused volatility in other markets. The international benchmark, Brent crude, rose by 0.8% to approximately $74 per barrel. The trading volume between the Russian ruble and Tether's USDT nearly quadrupled from $4 million on Saturday to $15 million on Sunday. In other developments, the Japanese yen strengthened by 0.11% against the US dollar, trading at 143.50 per dollar. Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, stated that Japan was not ruling out intervening in the currency markets again. He expressed concerns about the yen's rapid and one-sided depreciation against the dollar. Japan previously intervened in the foreign exchange markets in September and October of the previous year when the yen hit a 32-year low of nearly 152 per dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets
💾 Euro vs Russian RubleI was looking at this with the RSI open and was getting mixed signals. The daily timeframe (short-term) also, mixed signals but this isn't the case for the long-term. The blue lines you see here, that's the trend. Both the long upper wick March 2022 and the crash May-Dec. 2022 are the excess. This chart is clearly saying that the Euro is set to continue growing against the Russian Ruble, but things can change. Last month was a decisive session and gives out a strong signal. We have a "hammer" candlestick; long lower wick coupled with a small real body. This month we have a full green candle, so far, and this works as confirmation of last's months session. Meaning bullish confirmation. This is all pointing straight up (green arrow), with the main support being 80 (last months wick low) and 72 (January's low). Moving below these levels would change the chart structure yet the bullish bias would still remain. Below you can find the USDRUB trade ideas if you want additional information: 💾 U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Russian Ruble | April 10, 2023 💾 U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOM | December 21, 2022 
 Thank you for reading. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
2