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USDRUB

USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way. Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy. China - Catch 22 Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU. What can Russia do? Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036). Rate cut implications Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation. Technical analysis I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis. Risks / opportunities On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB. As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
Long
by Miloslaw
6
USDRUB Sooner or later we will see 80rWe are approaching the stated goals of $ 68 for $ 1, after which I expect to see a new stage in the depreciation of the ruble and the continuation of the crisis, which everyone would seem to have forgotten about) Below we have an unclosed gap The ruble appreciation was caused by growth, demand for risky assets, and most importantly, the restoration of oil demand. Given the positive on the oil market, we can expect further short-term strengthening. Good levels for the purchase of the dollar in the medium and long term noted on the chart. I buy in parts, the largest rollback is up to 68 rubles per dollar. At this level, prices will buy more. Sooner or later we will see 80r. And if you can successfully invest in American stocks, in $$$. With such a ruble exchange rate, you will be able to remove with a high degree of probability the double profit from the growth of shares + exchange rate (I do this) Once again, I understand that the ruble is an unreliable currency to save its money. Friends have suggestions, or you do not know where to invest, write to me in PM.
by CHOWTRADE
USD/RUB at the end of the triangle pattern 🦐The market after the sharp rise till 82.750 level retraced till the 0.5 Fib level of the upper move. After testing the triangles lines is now getting to the end of it and due to the weaken time of the USD is pushing to the downside. We draw 2 important structure in blue that will give us the confirmation of the trend and an opportunity to take a position at the resets of it. If it will occur a break to the downside our target will be around 66.500, on the other hand if the market will gain momentum and break on the upper side at retest of the resistance zone we could easily target the recent highs. ––––– Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
USDRUB The ruble is not a reliable currency to save its funds.Only on a global scale, when we see that the ruble is waiting for it to become visible, that a figure will form in the upward channel, and in a couple of months we will see the ruble 90. At a minimum, the level of 90 rubles has been tested. From the factors of decline: oil war Help to banks is uncertain (you need to turn on the machine) Help is required for business (tax avoidance, loans, payments, you need to turn on the machine) No need to give money to the people (you need to turn on the machine) UbliWe publish a very probable scenario of further price movement) A good period for a long purchase has actually come
by CHOWTRADE
USDRUB AnalysisEverything on the chart! If my analysis is correct, we move in a triangle (which is characteristic of the 4th wave). Purchases from the global trend line.Or on the breakdown of a local trend. If we break through and fix below the global trend line, the scenario will be canceled. I think long is more relevant. Target zone 86-90 Good luck. If u liked follow me. Hello everyone, almost year ago i have lost my deposit(almost 8btc and i'm still broke w/o deposit and job,I can’t do my favorite thing,It's just free ideas for you) and now i'm trying to get back to the market. If i help you to earn some money i will RLY VERYVERY THANKFULL for your donate(PM to me). Also open to your suggestions(PM).
by trytofeelpositive
5
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
by Dinjin