Get started

USDRUB

ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open. Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
TOP 5. Issue 26 from 09.02.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . Plus two more instruments this time which are GBPUSD and BTCUSD. If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like button and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by captain_smollett
TOP 5. Issue 25 from 26.01.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by captain_smollett
ridethepig | RUB Spot Commentary 2020.01.20Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience. The first compelling chart shows the highs being set in this monthly swing; the total removal of its lows opened up the same flows in EURRUB: The swings we have just glimpsed at are quite typical and although it will likely not feel necessary here, the importance of in checking the 60 handle for headlines and masses. Mostly only one player benefits from this entire flow, but that is quite sufficient. I expect sellers to show some strength over the coming days and weeks. A lot of talk of few large hands in Oil buying dividends. In any case looking for the infamous 60 target. Thanks as usual for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the conversation with any questions.
Short
by ridethepig
TOP 5. Issue 24 from 19.01.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
by captain_smollett
TOP 5. Issue 23 from 12.01.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
by captain_smollett
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.01.09Here markets are starting to see shorts pick up momentum, this has been a very very easy ride so far since our initial entry (see diagram): Oil has drastically sold off, and risk sentiment in the M.E is fading. While we failed to clear 70 we managed to unwind some at 65 on the Iran spike. No reason to change course here yet, market sits itching to breakdown. Remain on the sell side. Tracking closely for the flush in USDRUB to 60 with NFP tomorrow to kickstart the next iteration in flows. For the flows: Sell LMT Entry 61.2 | TP 60.0 | SL 62.0 ... It is the same story in EURRUB as we complete the final few ticks: GL those trading RUB into NFP.
Short
by ridethepig
2
USDRUB is ON Sale NowAfter the US took an airstrike on Iran and killing its top general, I have been looking for a countercurrency for USD other than Gold and Oil... and so, USDRUB was detected. Moreover, its price action gave us a convincing sell bias as it has successfully broken the weekly 200ma. This set up will be targeting 55.000 psychological level that was previously tested in 2018 with a risk control stop at 65.000 level. I was able to enter my sell order at 62 this Monday, Jan 06, and this pair is already trading at 61.15 as of this writing. My trading plan will be to partially take half my profit at 61 level, and addsome more at 60, letting the original half position and the additional order to ride the selling pressure upto 55 target price. Caveat! Let me know your comments and reactions too.
Short
by BadongDee
The year begins extremely unsuccessfully, so we will earnIn the news plan, the year began extremely unsuccessfully. The elimination of Iranian general Kassem Suleymani (he was the second most important in Iran after the main ayatollah) was headline news. We wrote about in our weekend reviews “Escape to safe-haven Assets Activated: $ 1800 Gold” and “Will the Suleyman Killing Become a Black Swan for the US Stock Market”. Will this event become a real "game-changer" we will see. But the primary reactions of the markets are showing how the events will develop in response to any the conflict escalation. Gold will hit 1800. Oil, if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, will continue to grow. Stock markets rush down. So it’s possible and even necessary to earn. Weak data on business activity indices were shown from all around the world. But the main event was the publication of the US Manufacturing Sector Index, which fell to a 10-year low. So our expectations of sales in the US stock market have the background. Our basic position - recommendations to sell the US dollar. In December, the dollar lost about 2%: this was the maximum monthly decline over the past 2 years. Weak data and the threat of collapse of price bubbles in different segments of the US financial market will push the Fed to further lower rates and continue to inject money through repo markets or new quantitative easing programs. Which will inevitably provoke a new round of dollar weakness? So we will buy the USDRUB in the future. Selling the Russian ruble from current points is a great opportunity, despite our expectations of dollar weakness. This week the statistics on the US labour market is expected to be published. And this is a guaranteed surge of volatility and a great opportunity for making money. But we will talk about this later.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
TOP 5. Issue 22 from 04.01.2020Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by captain_smollett
TOP 5: 2019 wrap-up and longer term analysis. 04.01.2020Long-term update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments. This is a video dedicated to EURUSD, USDRUB, CL1! and GC1! instruments while SPX is analysed in a separate video. If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and share your view in the comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
by captain_smollett
1
KEY TRADING THEMES FOR 2020General fundamental context: Expect global mini economic expansion in 2020. Yes, 2019 year, to the surprise of many, managed to avoid recession. Do you remember this extremely weird rally BOTH bonds and stocks? Investors were basically divided into two camps - doomsayers and smart and witty stock traders who almost blindly bet on Fed capitulation. Because of that I have moderately bearish outlook on funding currencies (Yen, CHF, USD, Euro) and Bullish on “Commodity dollars” (AUD, CAD) and HY (RUB, PESO, ZAR, NZD). Medium term outlook for XAUUSD is also bearish because because zero-yield assets negatively correlate with positive economic growth. MAJOR FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS Implementation of trade agreement (aka "Phase one" Deal) What to watch: - China trade data; - Brazil and Argentina Soybean export data; - US agro exports, producer price index etc; - European trade data, PPI (because to increase imports from US, China has to cut imports from other trade partners. It is a zero sum game, you know). No favourable shifts in Trade - Tariffs are back on the table - second tough test for the US stock market. "Phase Two" Deal Rhetorics. Remember that many contentious issues remained unresolved after Phase one Deal. Next stage is Phase Two deal discussion which Trump touted would start right after the signing "Phase one" Deal. What to watch: - Trump twitter; US 2020 Presidential Elections What to watch: - Trump leads, so focus on his new campaign promises. It is important because Trump looks a man of his word and delivered on his main campaign pledges (Mexico Wall, tax reform, revision of World Trade Order). - Watch closely US polls. Markets will be extremely sensitive to this data and with the approach of the date of elections Dollar may start to resemble Pound reacting to Brexit news (really). Federal Reserve Policy. The policymakers signalled no more interest rate cuts till the end of 2020. Any tweaks in policy or change in communications can move stocks and Dollar either way. I want to wish you a happy new year. All the best to you, your family and friends. 2019 will definitely be missed, but let’s make it even bigger in 2020!
INDEX:DXYShort
by PipVision
TOP 5. Issue 21 from 29.12.2019Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
COMEX:GC1!
by captain_smollett
Thin market and statistical arbitrage in safe-haven assetsThe period of the Christmas holidays is traditionally characterized by low liquidity in the financial markets (so-called “thin market”). So you can increase the level of aggressiveness in trading to the maximum due to the relatively insignificant volatility. But at the same time, the probability of flash crashes and sharp inexplicable jumps in volatility during such periods is maximum. We have not noticed any flash crashes on this Christmas, however, strange movements were present. Dynamics of safe-haven assets during Christmas week, for example. Gold has been growing steadily that day and consolidated above 1510. At the same time, the Japanese yen is under pressure and buyers tried to break through the resistance level at 109.60. Well, yen rate dynamics could be explained by Trump’s announcement that an official ceremony of signing an interim trade agreement between the United States and China will be held soon. But the growth of gold, in this case, is illogical. Who is right in the end: gold or the yen - we will see. And we have a trading idea about this. This is the so-called statistical arbitrage. The correlation level between gold and the Japanese yen in 2019 was quite high. That is, statistically, they should change synchronously. Now there is a desynchronization (divergence). It can be eliminated either if gold drops sharply, and the yen remains unchanged, or the yen rises sharply with gold remains at the same level. Both of these options guarantee earnings if you simultaneously sell gold and buy the Japanese yen. And finally, another excellent trading opportunity - sale of the Russian ruble. For those who are already in the pair's purchases, we would recommend adding twice the volume.
Long
by Trade24Fx
TOP 5. Issue 20 from 21.12.2019Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals. These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB . If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
by captain_smollett