USDRUB
USD/RUB Bullish IdeaWe see a break in the trend movement in the initial cycle. This is the first reason to check demand. The second reason is the positional area of 63-61. In this area, we see weak downward movement and large shadows on the bars.
I will buy above 63 with targets up to 64.5-65.
Long futures USDRUB, 1D, June, 4. Close position on June, 8.Trend analysis with ADX and oscillator analysis with MACD of the MOEX futures price on USDRUB indicates the position to buy the pair on June, 4 and close the position on June, 8. ADX analysis shows D+ (green) > D- (red) meaning the bullish trend supported by the MACD analysis, where MACD fast (blue) crossed MACD signal (orange) from below.
On June, 8, D+ (green) can cross D- (red) from above. The situation D+ < D- suggests selling the asset.
Also, MACD fast (blue) can cross MACD signal (orange) from above signalling the trend change.
USD/RUB Strengthen of Russian RUB At the moment, the key factor determining the dynamics of the Russian currency is the inflow and outflow of money in Russian bonds. The current rubble appreciation is associated with a new influx of non-residents in GOV Bonds. Wave analysis of Eliot showed that at the moment we are drawing A to ABC (B is of a higher order), which means that the rubble will gradually strengthen. The correlation between RGBI and RUB / USD is more than 90%, making up a dependency model and substituting the potential values of the RUB / USD index, it received that the rubble could reach 61-62 rubbles per dollar. The fact that the wave in wave A 5 turned out to be stretched is indicated by the analysis of relations. According to Eliot, in the case of a stretched fifth wave, the motion ratio is (1 + 3) / 5 = either 1/1, or 0.618, or 1.618, in this case the ratio is a drop (1 + 3) wave = -4.6%, and a drop in 5 wave -7.6%, so 7.6 / 4.6 = 1.602, 4.6 / 7.6 = 0.605, which is close to the golden ratio.
USD/RUB 1D (Long)Hey
Read Carefully
Candle Will go down to the 1st Demand Zone.
DOWN) If the candle crosses the 1st demand zone , the candle goes down to the 2nd demand zone .
UP) If the candle crosses the 1st resistance, the candle will go Up
and if the candle touches the 1st demand zone , the candle will go to the 1st Resistance zone
Russian Ruble (USD/RUB) Sell limit 64.80 >>> 61.39Russian Ruble:
During breakdown of the first candle. growth is same size of candle. ( TD )
Current candle is big. So we size a little different.
Daily chart
Current = Trend is down
MN = time frame
We have a big candle (First candle (TD))
I'm waiting on daily chart 64.80 (RUB) and after that we have Low trade zone/support for fixing deal = Target is 61.39 (RUB)
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Sell Limit = 64.80
Take Profit = 61.39
Stop Loss = 67.17
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Profit = 5.26%
Risk = 3.66%
USDRUB bullish return after bottomAfter testing strong support of 63.6, bullish trend is being restored. RUB got strong enough to test 63.6 support because of a set of factors - tax period for Russian companies, good economics reports of Russian Central Bank, as well as S&P drop and sanctions temporary put on hold by US government.
Return to 65.5 resistance.
Second stage of EM rally?After previously tracking the reversal (see attached: "Another key reversal in play in USDRUB") finally the break of 65 has come. From a technical standpoint this was important as it unlocked the 62.5 lows.
Russia has been one of the out performers on the currency board so far this year and I continue to see scope for more gains, irrespective of the very near term reversal in dollar.
The risk here to the setup is coming from sanctions related risk. Russian authorities have been quick to take measures to insulate the economy (reaction to DASKAA bill).
Best of luck all those trading EM and thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling