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USDRUB

💾 U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Russian RubleWe are looking at a monthly chart, this is an extremely bullish setup. USDRUB about to go up strong. What we see here after the May-June 2022 crash is a recovery phase. This recovery phase is completed December 2022 when USDRUB closes above EMA100, EMA10, EMA50 and EMA21 in the same month. At this point the bullish bias is confirmed. January 2023 was a month of consolidation, the session closed above the moving averages. In February 2023 the bullish trend starts following the recovery. In March 2023 we get bullish confirmation/continuation and in April the bullish bias intensifies. After 4 months of slow but steady growth, the accumulation phase is reaching its end and we should see a reverse of the move that happened between May and June 2022. As it crashed fast and strong, it will rise with force. This analysis is supported by additional signals. The MACD has gone bullish as it trades monthly above 0. A very strong bullish cross took place and the histogram is full green. It is also trading above Fib. resistance (now support). Plenty of room available for additional growth. The RSI can only be consider super strong when trading above 50 monthly, a great reading... Here is the chart: Invalidation point For this analysis to become invalid we would need to see a close monthly at least below EMA100 or $63. Technically speaking, the bullish bias still remains valid even with such a drop. Prices would need to close below HKEX:50 for the current structure to breakdown. Everything is pointing up. I am sharing this update because many people showed interest in my previous analysis "USDRUB_TOM" from Dec. 2022, shared in the "Related Ideas". Thanks a lot for your time and support. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
5
The ruble - cylinder in a cylinder in which a rabbitGood evening ladies and gentlemen for a long time I could not comprehend the schedule, pondered for weeks, days and nights on the full moon closer to Easter Sunday I realized: USD\RUB is a livermore cylinder more precisely, I would say a cylinder in a cylinder in which a rabbit Nabiullina, of course, is still a magician, but the rabbit is real, and tricks are tricks. I also have one in stock: if the forecast does not come true, I will say that this dog ran over the keyboard and posted a post Yes, exactly - not funny at all - but tricks - it's not jokes. I told you, tricks are tricks. Okay, the magic starts to end I’ll go as soon as possible, the ficus is drying up, I need to water it. Bye
by rivatrick
USDRUB updateUR has reached strong fibo level. It seems like it will continue to rise(big bullish candle). But I wouldn't be surprise if it start to revers now. Why? Firstly it has touched strong resistance level that was holding price almost for 6 years. So its a strong level even though it was broken in February 2022. Secondly. If you look at dollar index (green line) which represents strength of a dollar you will see that it's strongly bearish. As you can see from correlation UR and DI has positive correlation (if dollar falls ruble falls also) but with some delays. For example DI started to rise in May 2021 when UR had made big pish up only in November 2021. I still see UR in sell zone. But April will be deciding month for Russian ruble (and most currencies). If price will continue to rise next key levels are 87-89 and 90 rubles per 1 dollar. First target as I have mentioned in my previous analysis is 50 rub/dollar and max target is 30 rubles per dollar. Let see how it'll go. Good luck:)
Short
by margarita_morozova
4
Ascending triangle on the USD/RUB pair. What to expect next?Hello. On the USD/RUB pair, a technical analysis pattern of an ascending triangle is forming. We have two potential scenarios. The first scenario is that if the ascending trend line is broken and the price consolidates below it we can expect further price decline to the Fibonacci level of 0.618 or 66 RUB/USD. On the chart it is noticeable how the support levels correlate with Fibonacci levels. The second scenario is that the price breaks through the resistance zone around 78 RUB/USD and continues to move upward to 86 RUB/USD. This price range is a global resistance level. If you go back on the chart you can see how the asset approached this level back in 2015 and then underwent a correction. This is not financial advice. Everything you do is at your own risk.
by neverovv
#USDRUBEconomic pressure from developed countries was unprecedented. The Russian Federation has become the absolute record holder in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing countries such as North Korea and Iran. In response to the sanctions policy, the ministers limited the capital account, greatly inflated the interest rate and allowed commercial banks to introduce a commission for storing dollars and euros (about 12% per year), without the possibility of withdrawing cash (only in rubles, at the rate of the Central Bank) . Naturally, a cash currency market appeared, the spread of which at the current price is about 10 rubles. The high volatility of the national currency and the withdrawal of Western firms hit imports catastrophically, while exports continued to bring in large foreign exchange earnings due to high energy prices. Thus, we got an artificial strengthening of the ruble, for which we created all the necessary macroeconomic conditions - a huge positive trade balance. The state budget also remained in surplus for a long time. After the onset of 2023, all past "pros" for the ruble were not viable. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 7.5%, the trade balance has ceased to be published since March 2022. Thus, we observe 2 important factors: 1) The state budget deficit, which in January already received 65% of the entire projected deficit for 2023. 2) QE, which was launched by the Central Bank to finance budget gaps through REPO. Of course, the government has a special fund to cover the budget deficit, but its liquid part is 6.5 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit, only in January, amounted to 1.76 trillion. In this case, the government has already begun sequestering the budget, with the exception of military and power items. However, this is not enough in the face of the loss of major sales markets and declining energy prices. Gas prices in Europe fell below $600, and URALS oil fell below $60, although back in November they were $83. Under these conditions, the government is left with few options: 1. Significantly reduce military spending and neutralize the budget deficit. 2. Significantly weaken the ruble to restore lost income. 3. Strengthen the hidden QE program. 4. Spend the entire stabilization fund. I would like the reader to understand that there is a social contract in the Russian Federation - although social security is insignificant, and payments are minimal, they must be carried out impeccably, since violation of this contract entails political risks. All 4 options, with the exception of the 1st, look the most realistic, with a possible combination. Under these conditions, I do not see other scenarios, except for the continuation of the trend for the weakening of the Russian currency. Even in the event of an end to the conflict, a reduction in government spending on military needs and a partial lifting of sanctions, Europe is unlikely to allow the restoration of the former sales markets for Russian energy resources and Europe's trend towards diversifying supplies is unlikely to change, it remains only to look for new ones. However, Russia has already lost part of the most solvent market. Strengthening is possible, but this requires a strong position on the part of the Central Bank, which must again raise the interest rate and hold it for a long time, but in the current macroeconomic conditions this looks unlikely, although such a development cannot be ruled out. Technical picture: After a false breakdown of the main resistance 79.6 - 86.1, the price returned under it and now it acts as the main reference point for market participants. In the same area, the previous price pattern passes, which now acts as a resistance line. Last year, a new price model was formed to reduce the value of the US currency. Also, we have a dollar support level at 51.4 - 48.7. Therefore, I recommend to closely monitor the area of the past resistance level, at the moment the picture tells us, at a minimum, about trading in a range and or a possible further strengthening of the ruble. However, it is the fundamental picture that tells us about reverse.
Long
by VOKCAPITAL
4
USDRUB Supported and with a STOCH Bullish Cross!The USDRUB has been trading within a 5 month Rectangle pattern ever since the price retraced from the start of the war High. The price made a High on October 11 and has been pulling back since but for the 7th straight session, it remains supported on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which since late July has been trading around the Rectangle's middle (median), thus acting as somewhat a pivot point. This level of Support along with the fact that the STOCH RSI is making a Bullish Cross, presents a short-term buy opportunity, first towards the top of the High Volatility Zone and then towards the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
2
USD/RUB :: What will happen to the USDRUB ?USD/RUB ::: 1_ Blue channel : Daily time frame : It is moving in a descending channel . Pay attention, there is a possibility that it will move in a range and reach the ceiling of the channel without increasing the price. 2_ In the time frame of 4 hours, it has broken a triangle that has sufficient validity and can confirm its fall . 3_ Returning to the red circle in the middle line is inevitable . But the final movement will be towards the roof of the channel .
by The_Best_Trader_1991
1
USD/RUB - Regime Change IndicatorRegime Change Indicator The Russian ruble will let us know when the madness might end. The Russian ruble has halved in value over the last four months, accelerating that trend recently, coincident with economic sanctions being imposed by governments and by corporations themselves. At the start of the war, some economists noted that the Russian economy might be able to withstand sanctions given that it has made itself less reliant on foreign capital over the past decade. This is up for debate, but what is not, is the prospect of rampant consumer price inflation and increasing unemployment in Russia. Attention is turning to how long the Putin regime can last before the Russian people rise up against it. Perhaps Elliott waves can give us a clue as to when that might happen. Should the Putin regime be toppled, it will no doubt be subsequent to, or coincident with, an appreciating ruble. The chart of USD-RUB offers a compelling wave count whereby a Fibonacci 13-year advance in USD-RUB (depreciating ruble) is coming to an end. Within this count, Primary degree wave 5 (circled) will equal 1.618 times the length of waves 1 through 3 at 167.32 (a typical turning point when wave 5 is extended). This count also offers an Elliott channel target, connecting waves 2 and 4 and paralleling from wave 3, which comes in around current levels. Thus, there appears to be quite strong evidence that USD-RUB is close to a top (i.e., a low in the ruble). Of course, the ruble can appreciate without the Putin regime being toppled but given the zeitgeist, a lasting low in the ruble (top in USD-RUB) would seem to be probable only with Russia re-entering the global economy, and that would mean Putin no longer being there. If this wave count is correct, therefore, it might be a sign of hope that the madness will end soon.
Short
by ferGOD
13
USDRUB 4 years of slow rising before the next stress eventThe USDRUB pair is consolidating in recent weeks since the short-lived rebound on the June 27 (1W candle) low. The inability to break above either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) should keep the price action rather neutral for now. As you see the long-term bullish Channel that started after the July 2008 low, is still holding as the June Low was contained just above its Higher Lows trend-line. After such a Low, the pair tends to start a Channel Up on a slow pace within the respective Fibonacci levels. This is a long-term accumulation phase before a major stress event rapidly sends the RUB depreciating against the USD. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3