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USDRUB

USD/RUB 1H Chart: Short-term trend in sightThe Russian Ruble has been depreciating against the US Dollar since the beginning of October. This movement has been bounded in an ascending channel. Currently, the currency pair is testing the upper channel line at 66.40. If given channel holds, a reversal south occurs in the nearest future, and the rate aims for the support cluster formed by a combination of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs in the 65.72/65.89 range. Otherwise, a breakout north occurs within the following hours. Important resistance level to look out for is the monthly R1 at 66.50.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/RUB 1H Chart: Falling wedge in sightThe Russian Ruble has been appreciating against the US Dollar after the currency pair reversed from the resistance level formed by the monthly PP at 67.17. This movement has been bounded in a falling wedge. As apparent on the chart, a breakout from the pattern should occur in the nearest future. From a theoretical point of view, the exchange rate should break given wedge north and surge towards the 66.40/66.80 range. However, technical indicators suggest that expected advance might not be immediate, and the pair could decline to the psychological level at 65.20.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EW ANALYSIS: Long-term And Short-term View On Russian RubleHello traders! Today we will talk about pretty clear Russian Ruble. From a technical perspective, we see very interesting price action and wave structure based on Elliott Wave theory. Let's start with Weekly chart: In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave correction follows and as you can see, USDRUB is turning down after five waves up. So, we can expect at least three waves A-B-C of decline where wave C is still missing, which means that strong Russian Ruble can be coming in the next few weeks/months. Daily chart: Looking at the daily chart we can see an impulsive five-wave rally within wave (C) of B, so seems like USDRUB has completed a flat correction and found a resistance at 70.65 level, especially because of a current sharp and impulsive decline into wave A/1 away from highs. So, what we expect now is minimum three waves of decline at least back to 61.61 area, A/1 - B/2 - C/3. Intra-day hourly chart: At the hourly chart, we can see a very nice bounce away from A/1 lows with five waves up and three waves of pullback, which means that wave B/2 can be underway and should be made by three waves a-b-c, where wave c is still missing and can be reached around ideal 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 68 area. However, we want to say that Russian Ruble can be strong in the upcoming year, so we decided to share our view, just keep in mind that this may become more complex, so as long as it's trading below 70.65 invalidation level, we will remain bearish! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
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USD/RUB 1H Chart: Short-term channel in sightThe Russian Ruble has been depreciating against the US Dollar since early August under the pressure from new the US sanctions. At the time of this analysis, the exchange rate had reached the lower boundary of a short-term ascending channel near 67.20. It is very likely that an upside momentum starts prevailing in the nearest future as the 55-period SMA (4H) push the rate up. Technical indicators on the 4H and 1D time-framers support this bullish scenario. The nearest target for the exchange rate is the 68.00/50 area.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Defining the Carry TradeSuppose that the deposit interest rate in the US stands at 1.5% and the interest rate in Europe stands at 0%. Let's also assume that the EURUSD rate is at 1.10 and that we do not expect it to move in the next year. Investors, aware of this situation would be willing to borrow from Europe deposit in the US, benefiting from the interest rate differential, and ensure a 1.5% risk-free return. This investment, where money is "carried" to another location (physically until mid-20th century), is called the carry trade. While the carry trade appears to be very simple, many dangers lie in its application. Remember that our second and most crucial assumption was that the exchange rate would not move. Nonetheless, exchange rates seldom remain stable. In fact, the inflow of capital - deposits in our example - is what actually makes the exchange rate move. This is why, in an earlier post , we have already specified that a change in interest rates can be suggestive of the future movement of the exchange rate. In order for the trade to be successful, the EURUSD rate must not depreciate to an extent after which profits will be eaten out. Suppose that an investor wishes to borrow EUR1 mln and carry it to the US. Thus, he would be depositing USD1.1 mln in the US with hopes of getting back USD 1.1165 mln one year from now. If the exchange rate remains at 1.10, then the investor would transform the money to EUR1.015, repay the loan and enjoy a EUR15,000 profit. Nonetheless, if the exchange rate moves to 1.11, then the investor's profit is reduced to just EUR 5,000 after the loan is repaid. As you can imagine, the Dollar profit turns into a Euro loss if the exchange rate moves to 1.12. As you may have guessed, in order for the trade to be profitable, the exchange rate should not move by more than the exchange rate differential, which is not what the Inverse Fisher effect suggests. As such, for the carry trade to be successful, there needs to be substantial room for error. As such, a large interest rate differential is required. Further to this, traders need to find a currency pair in which the currency with the highest interest rate is not expected to depreciate by much. Is the carry trade an easy trade to find? Of course not. But it is possible. In 2016, the Russian interest rate stood at 11%, while the respective interest rate in the US stood at 0.5% and remained at that point until December . This would imply an interest rate differential of approximately 10.5% for the year. The USDRUB exchange rate stood at 72.91 on January 4, 2016 and ended up at 60.68 on December 29, 2016. Suppose now that an investor borrowed USD 1 mln, exchanged it for RUB 72.91 mln and invested it in Russia. By the end of the year, the investor would have gained 11% on his RUB investment, at a value of RUB 80.93 mln. Exchanging it back to USD at the 60.68 rate would mean that the trade would have ended with a value of USD 1.334 mln, which after deducting the USD 1.005 mln, would leave the trader with approximately USD 330,000, or a 33% return on investment. Hence, while carry trade opportunities are rare, they can be present if good and careful research is made. However, it should be remembered that carry trades are high-risk strategies and thus proper risk management strategies should be used. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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by HotForex
Possible pattern recurrence. Neutral.USDRUB has broken the previous Rectangle on 1D to the upside (RSI = 67.004, MACD = 1.132, Highs/Lows = 1.0010, B/BP = 2.0066). However the currently High Volatility on 1D (ATR = 0.9168) as well as the overbought action on 1W (RSI = 73.797, STOCHRSI = 76.158, Williams = -15.552, CCI = 219.8375) indicate that the pair may enter another consolidation phase/ Rectangle. That is a scalping opportunity with (due to the 1W Channel Up) a bullish primary sentiment (dip buying).
by InvestingScope