USDRUB
USD/RUB meets long term supportAt first glance the situation on the USD/RUB charts looks chaotic. However, if one delves deeper into understanding the currency exchange rate, it is clear what is occurring.
First of all the pair has made a rebound against the most dominant ascending channel patterns lower trend line, which is combined with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at the 56.95 mark.
As a result of the rebound the previously active medium term pattern was broken. Moreover, two new patterns have been mapped. The short term, already obsolete channel up pattern has already been broken. Meanwhile, the new medium term channel up is only speculated.
Two varints of corrective waves (Elliott + Fibonachi)Corrective wave coming now.
Elliott waves and Fibonacci numbers say us where we able to come.
USD/RUB not likely to go much higherDuring the recent trading sessions the US Dollar has made a rebound against the Russian Ruble. Due to that reason a surge is to be expected. However, various details reveal that the bulls might still pass this rate.
First of all the pair is still located in the borders of the junior pattern channel down pattern .That means that it’s upper trend line will continue to provide resistance. Meanwhile, the pair is also located in a dominant channel down.
In addition the pair is set to face the resistance of the various simple moving averages of the hourly chart. These factors combined reveal that there might be no short term recovery at all.
USD/RUB prepares for a surgeThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the Russian Ruble during the last month. However, recently the currency exchange rate has reached the support line of a dominant descending channel pattern.
The dominant pattern has a very small angle of decline, which means that most likely we will soon see the formation of a new ascending junior pattern. However, the rate is most likely going to trade flat for some time, as it is set to face the resistance of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly S1 near the 58.75 mark.
Moreover, the 55-period simple moving average is approaching from the upside to strengthen the resistance cluster.
Dollar repairs its image as GDP boosts optimism
The European currency failed to hold the gains of recent bullish momentum, which led EURUSD above 1.20, as investors suddenly began to buy dollars against the backdrop of uncompromising growth in the US economy. Markets have tried to distract from Trump and North Korea, especially since with Trump's mild reaction to the recent launch of the North Korean missile, the degree of uncertainty has dropped significantly. As noted before, the fundamental picture of the dollar pointed to its excessive oversold state, recently almost entirely due to speculative pressure. One of the strategists of Goldman Sachs on the fixed income market joined a group of analysts who pointed out in the interview that the dollar was undervalued because of the exaggerated political and geopolitical risks.
Although the Fed is not able to bring inflation to a comfortable trajectory, investors have realized that the regulator can deliberately let the labor market overheat in order to understand where the Phillips curve will work again. Data on household expenditure and GDP exceeded expectations, with GDP growing 3.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, household spending 3.3%, which returns a version of a temporary slowdown in inflation. In addition, Janet Yellen did not give clear instructions regarding the December increase in Jackson Hole, preferring to get more data before setting expectations on the market. Investors also perceived the lack of hints for the weakness and the plight of the Fed, which is trying to smoothly remove the third rate hike from the agenda.
The optimism about the US economy and the dollar balances the general confidence of investors in the ECB's September decision to roll out QE and makes the game less clear. Inflation in the euro area rose to 1.5%, the Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, leaving the forecast at 1.4% behind. This lays the foundation for the more aggressive rhetoric of the ECB on September 6, as well as subjectively adjusts the markets to the desired outcome. Draghi will definitely announce a reduction in QE in September, but the fate of the euro will depend on the scale of the reduction. It is worth remembering that in Jackson Hole Dragi said that the regulator will move in small steps and very slowly to keep the process, and hence inflation under control. To that, the excessive strengthening of the euro is not in the interest of the ECB, which was announced in the last protocol, so the turn will be carried out extremely gently. Comparing the growing bullish optimism about the US economy and the ECB's readiness for change, the level of 1.20 is likely to retain the status of resistance.
The dollar strengthens pressure on its opponents from the major currencies, the GBPUSD lost 0.3% despite an unexpected improvement in consumer sentiment, which is likely to be attributed to the seasonal factor (ending of hot summer season). Currencies for carry trade such as USDZAR and USDRUB have not yet reacted positively to the US economy. USDRUB declined by 0.3%, but the likelihood of return to the upstream channel is high, given that the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin made an intervention, believing that reducing inflation allows you to cut the rate further. Given the above factors, it becomes possible to enter into convenient purchases for USDRUB.
Arthur Idiatulin
Short USD/RUB ABCD PatternFinishing ABCD Pattern, I expect oil and gas rebound from bottom that will help RUBLE for sure!
USDRUB INSIDE TRIANGLE SUPPORT!Market analysis; The pair is now trading near the support zone with a strong triangle zone too. If the market holds the triangle support we can expect a rally up to the next resistanc. So let's wait and see what the market does in the coming days, cheers!
Ruble - bearish impulseThere's a bearish impulse in wave c of (b), which is likely going to move on.
USD/RUB 4H Chart: Channel UpThe US Dollar is gaining ground against the Russian Ruble in an ascending channel pattern. However, it can be observed that the currency exchange rate is approaching the upper trend line of a long term descending channel. Most likely the currency pair will be pushed into the trend line by the support of the 55 and 100-period simple moving averages. Both of the moving levels of significance were located just below the 60.00 mark. If nothing changes fundamentally a new short term ascending pattern will soon reveal itself, and the markets will see the USD/RUB pair reach above the 61.00 mark.
Long USD against EM currencies favouredUSD is sitting right at support against a basket of emerging currencies. As long as the support holds, long positions are favoured.
The overall pattern looks corrective so far, I will revisit the chart when it breaks to either side.
USDRUB - 4H - LONG - TDIAs usual, rules are respected on 4H, weekly is bullish, my only concern is on daily if there is a pullback. Let's try to leave enough room to SL.
Be careful about size of lot, especially due to volatility, spread and size of SL.
GLHF
