USDRUB
USDRUB Update. Possible wave count. MOEX edition.This is the chart based on official exchange data though it's quite clean without choppy tales.
It is an update.
I added alternative count in yellow, which implies longer wave 5.
The white trendlines isolate the current move successfully so watch their integrity closely.
Happy New Year!
USDTRY comparison with USDRUB and BRENTOILIn this chart, you can see the correlation between BRENT OIL and USDRUB. When you open long position for long period for USDTRY you can open USDRUB short. USDRUB short will pay your swap cost when you get some profit from USDTRY.
BRENT CRUDE vs RUB. Inverse Head & ShouldersIf this idea will deliver then it supports the idea of USDRUB rise.
The rub will not benefit much from rising oil as oil would rise against the rub also.
USDRUB. View changed. Updated structureMy previous idea showed the strength of the RUB.
I watched it closely and the very tight range and a lot of see-saw moves on USDRUB daily chart changed my mind.
I think we are not going to go much lower. I would quit short and book profit.
Updated view shows the corrective structure upside with the large C pending.
Target for C highlighted in a white rectangle with range between 50 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
USDRUB. View same. Labeling updatedUpside view remained, I changed labeling as the horizontal structure of the finishing wave
makes me think of an ending diagonal in position of wave (c) of wave A.
The wave B can hit up to (and even beyond) 100% of wave A.
I put 3 arrows upside and 3 arrows downside to show the potential price action levels.
USDRUB. Possible wave count. TARGET 41.75Looks like USDRUB is in a larger corrective move.
Therefore another drop is pending.
C=A = 41.75
Cl1 It ends the process head shoulders, and oil drop, oh yeah, and who may be interesting to put the growth of USD / RUB
USDCAD: Good chance to reenter shortsIf you're not in, you can reenter shorts here, on this pullback.
The target is illustrative, if we break lower, we could confirm a larger weekly time at mode downtrend.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDRUB: Potential long term downtrend continuationInteresting setup in the Ruble here. You may short at market, or on retracement. Stop above 64 is reasonable, you can alternatively use a stop above 66.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
PS: The swap from holding this offsets part of the nasty swap you get charged with for holding USOIL longs.
USDRUB
The ruble strengthened against the background of the negative trends fall below Brent $ 49 per barrel
LONG USDTRY & USDRUB: CARRY V $ PAIN LIKELY TO CONTINUE NXT WKUSD vs Carry:
1. Yield vs USD - G10 - AUD NZD; EM - BRL, ARS, TRY is likely to continue its downside pain into next week as dollar denominated short term interest rates (STIR) spiked (after hawkish Yellen comments - see attached post) to pre-brexit highs (30D Fed Funds steeper and Implying hikes now up at P=33% Sept, P=59.1 Dec, P=92.1% 2016) which as you can see had a highly correlated depreciative effect on yield ccys on Friday which imo will continue to see USD sought and carry supplied into next week.
2. Looking further into september/ until the Fed meeting, a firm beat in the US jobs report remains key for any sustained readjustment higher in USD vs yield.. as will firm data in general after Augusts very lacklustre data performance.
- The broad commodity complex coming under continued pressure after its recent topside (USD appreciation driven or otherwise) will also help the long USD vs carry positioning for the month. Any topside in the commods complex will likely dampen the above effects which will make watching micro commmod market developments key in selecting which ccys are likely to be the best under-performers vs the dollar.
Top Trades - Long USDTRY & Long USDRUB on Oil swings lower:
1. USDTRY - Recent comments from TRY Officials, asking for a "rapid" reduction in interest rates to boost growth and employment AND the 25bps reduction in the overnight lending rate (8.25% vs 8.50%) last week make TRY shorts particularly interesting as speculative fwd differential positioning could see USDTRY rip higher this month, particularly as it is one of the few non-commod export driven carry ccys which shields the long usdtry trade from the above mentioned continued commod environment topside possible which may lag gains.
2. USDRUB - A particularly effective way to play this long USD position would be to short RUB on any southward movements in Oil as this combined with interest rate flows leaving the currency for USD will likely promote a two-pronged movement lower in the Russian currency making it particularly rewarding.
USDRUB IS GOING UP FOR 103 AND 128.t seems that the 2nd wave is done and we're going to see 103 rubles per dollar in 1 to 2 months.
USDRUBNow the Russian ruble is going through the phase of calm, but not for long because it is the calm before the storm of the ruble to fall to 100 rubles / 1 USD . This situation is now displayed on the border of Ukraine and Russia ,, and bryazkanem weapon for creating screens and justification of the cost of war and armament
