US Dollar Technical Outlook At Resistance! DXY!The US Dollar fell to a four-month low last week with prices testing 94.50 support on dovish FOMC meeting. But prices managed to reverse their losses with the Dollar Index posting steady gains, for the most part, this week. Prices rallied for nearly four consecutive days after falling to the 94.50 support.
The gains in the US Dollar came about as various Fed members’ speaking engagements saw most of the FOMC members coming out hawkish on interest rates, with some expecting to see a rate hike as early as April. Unlikely as it may be, the Fed speak this week showcases the view that the broader consensus is continuing to incline to more rate hikes. Economic data this week from the US saw a mixed bag with durable goods orders released yesterday falling while housing data continued to remain mixed. Today’s GDP data is unlikely to see much traction with expectations broadly for an unchanged print at 1.0%. Even if the GDP data is revised lower, with the FOMC event done with, it is unlikely to see much movement on the markets.
The week ahead will be exciting as March concludes and the markets gear up for the NFP data next week. Between now and then, the US Dollar is very likely to remain below the 96.5 – 96.0 resistance and 94.50 – 94.0 support.
US Dollar Technical Outlook
The weekly chart shows prices currently trading within last week’s range of high and low following the brief rejection of prices near 94.50 – 94.0 on the weekly basis. There is a high likelihood that this week’s price action could close with an inside bar, which is likely to signal a breakout. To the upside, resistance at 96.5 on the weekly is a level to watch, which if gives way could see the US Dollar rally back to the old resistance near 98.0. To the downside, with the support level coinciding with last week’s low, the 94.5 – 94.0 support will be necessary as a break below this level will see prices fall to 93.0 – 92.5.
US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart likely to form an inside bar
On the daily chart, price action is currently on the resistance level of 96.5 – 96.5. A bearish confirmation here could see prices start to decline but trade within the ranges specified. Further price action evolvement will be based on a break of one of the two levels, but there is a possibility for another leg to the downside to test the lower support at 94.0, testing 14th and 15th September lows.
The 4-hour chart has signaled a reversal with prices forming a doji and a subsequent break to the downside near the 96.5 – 96.0 resistance. This should most likely see the US Dollar continue to push lower, but as with the daily chart, only a break of the lower support or the resistance above will confirm further direction in the US Dollar Index.
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USDRUB
Index Analysis and Trading Tips - Dow Jones 22nd Feb 2016Dow-Jones
16391
Market failed to sustain advance to test 16535 in low liquidity trading on Thursday and Friday proved very stagnant.
US CPI data confirms advance or head for another drop impulse which may activate above 16700 zone - as long as market holding trades above 16300 the chance for further advance toward 16535 and 16700 will sustain
** below 16300 market my head for drop correction toward 15600 zone
All the best and happy trading!
EURRUB: Pair tradeI will be buying the Ruble with Euros since I think we have tremendous downside potential as well as excellent yields as a carry trade.
The setup is to determine size on each leg of the pair using 1 month ATR, or 3 times the daily ATR value, and then proceed to short the EURUSD and short the USDRUB pairs to profit from this juncture.
You could look for a technical setup, but in this case, it's a bit tricky to find a stop loss location for it, so I prefer to deal with no stops, and no leverage, and just trade it as a pair.
Good luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Short EURUSD/Long USDRUB, volatility adjusted, downside potential: 34.48, upside risk: 93.69
Buy USD/RUB | Target :78.20Technical analysis of the currency pair #Usdrub
The currency pair is still in the uplink. Looking at the currency pair, striking candle figure 2 with an interval of a week. Morning and Evening Star. Reversal pattern on this pair is ready.
We retain a negative view against the Russian currency. This view is based solely on macro-economic factors, as well as technical analysis. The current situation in the oil market creates high risks in the economy and in terms of the balance of payments in terms of GDP growth, and most importantly in terms of budget execution. Thus, lower oil prices give rise to the following factors:
- For the execution of the budget deficit to 3% following items are required parameters in the oil price:
$ 25 per barrel: 140 rubles / $ 1
$ 30 per barrel: 105 rubles / $ 1
$ 35 per barrel: 94 rubles / $ 1
$ 40 per barrel: 84 rubles / $ 1
$ 45 per barrel: 70 rubles / $ 1
- Reduction of the trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 23%
- Real disposable income as real consumer demand from the population decreased.
- Real interest rates are in negative territory (interest rate in Russia 11%, inflation is accounted for 12.91%)
- Drivers of economic growth there and segodnshny day we do not see a clear and clear economic policy and economic goals.
- A gradual increase in interest rates the Fed will eventually have to bring more capital outflow from Russia than it is now, it is best suited for an example in which the outflow of China amounted to US $ 1 trillion.)
- The difference in DCT Fed and the Central Bank will soon play a greater role than it is now.
We maintain a long-term forecast for USD / RUB 100 p / $.
Krastkosrochny forecast assumes a return to the highs of the year.
#Forex #Trading #Usdrub #Rub #Cbr # Ruble Economy # # Inflation
Prism breakout tradingplan USDRUBYou're going to be breakout trading.
Follow the trend 'till you see reversal.
Fibs an old highs and pools of liquitiy are likely places to see reversal, so keep your eye on it.
*Warning, Forex trading is high risk, always use a stop*
I'm going to place my stop at break even, and make it move with the trend as it progresses.
Russian rouble detached from Brent in DecemberThis chart shows the price of Brent oil in RUB. Now, the thing is Russian government needs it around 3200 RUB per barrel to balance the budget. So, shorting Russian currency when UKOIL*USDRUB<3200 used to be a reliable trade since 2011.
Not so anymore...
Rubicone by CBR (USDRUB)11.12.2015 CBRF will report new interest rate Russia if interest rate will below 12,5% so usdrub will have new price channel 70-80 rub if interest rate well above 12,5% so price channel will go to down 70 rub. 11.12 CBRF tell new interes rate which interest rate do CBRF will be?
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: BREAKOUT FROM THE RANGEAfter the WTI Oil has confirmed its breakdown from its relevant range, USDRUB reacted accordingly - by breaking out from its range it has been in since September.
Price is now above both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above upper 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more upside probability.