Multiple Dollar pairs suggest downThis is an interesting portfolio.
Will these pairs follow USDCNH's lead?
Is this the beginning of a new fundamentally backed intermediate term trend?
Or just a very nice short term short?
Setups on chart, we will cover these in our skype group's discussions.
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Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
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USDRUB
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: INTO THE LATERAL RANGEUSDRUB has finally managed to end its upward trend, started the begining of June 2015
The price level has shifted - before uptrend USDRUB was trading about 55, now it is trading north of 60.
The end of the uptrend was marked by the price falling below quarterly mean and within 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean.
Thus currently the pair is range-bound, with the range borders are as marked on the chart. For further developments one should closely monitor WTI Oil (related idea), as the Ruble is closely correlated to it.
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS.
India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014.
In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009.
Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan.
USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment.
The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then.
The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83.
Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374
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