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USDRUB

Currency crisis is here. Which currencies are the best/worst?In this current environment it is very clear that some countries will be able to tackle this crisis a lot better than others, and therefore their currencies could perform a lot better. We'll start with developed market currencies and then move to emerging market currencies. Won't show charts on each currency, but will try to show the best and simply mention some others to keep an eye on. The currencies that are suffering the most at the moment are the ones in Europe, especially the ones with close relations to Russia, while the ones performing the best are the ones that produce a lot of commodities and have little to no dependency on Russia. When looking at the Euro, we can see that it was already struggling. Europe has been in terrible situation with some of the lowest growth rates across the entire world. Too much debt, too many political issues, bad demographics and now a huge crisis (energy + food + military). Even though EURUSD is getting oversold and is at support, it doesn't look good. The structure is pretty bearish and it looks like this time around it will break parity. In the short term it might bounce here, however based on several indicators it looks like the largest bounce will probably come around 0.99-1.02. At that point it would get so oversold, while it's the perfect place for late shorts to be squeeze and therefore a good place to close shorts and potentially open a small long. The pound is looking somewhat stronger and it has been performing a lot better than the euro since Mar 2020. It has now pretty recovered most of its lost ground since the Brexit and Britain's strength has increased by leaving the sinking ship of Europe. However it is also heavily affected by all the issues in Europe and so GBPUSD probably has lower to go. The strongest developed market currencies at the moment seem to be the Australian Dollar and the Japanese Yen, with the AUD looking much stronger. The reason is that Australia is really far away from all these conflicts, it has a lot of commodities (hence it benefits from inflation) and is pretty much self sufficient in a lot of ways. Japan is much closer to Russia both in terms of borders, but also in terms of trade & finances, so it is affected more. JPY's strength comes from the fact that it was already pretty oversold and because the YEN is usually seen as a safe heaven. Now when looking at emerging market currencies, the strongest is the CNH. It has been strengthening vs the USD for a while, and as China has taken a different stance towards Russia compared to the US, it might benefit the most financially. China has changed a lot in terms of its economy and it is trying to dedollarize, while also becoming more self sufficient and having closer ties to Russia. There is no way it won't be affected by all of this, but in the long run it could be one of the biggest winners. The digital Yuan could be big in an era where the USD has been weaponized, and the USD might have to be debased a lot more as the US isn't as self sufficient as China is. Currency wars begun a lot time ago, but now they are intensifying. China benefits from a weak dollar as a lot of its companies have USD denominated debt, but the state of its economy is unknown and I am definitely not indicating that they will be the clear winners out of all of this. Just that the CNH might perform better than the USD and pretty much most other currencies out there. The South African Rand doesn't look all that strong, but it looks stronger than the MXN and the INR which look pretty weak. The one that has been looking surprisingly strong is the BRL, which however could be in a major distribution phase and could be ready to have another leg down. The worst EM currencies clearly are the Turkish Lira and the Russian Ruble. The TRY started going down a long time ago due to all the crazy policies taken by the government and the Central bank, but mainly due to the fact that the government has borrowed a lot of the USD Turkish people had in their bank accounts. If inflation gets worse in Turkey, then this could force the Gov + CB to turn the USD deposits into TRY, something that could send the Lira in a death spiral. The RUB seems to be in a similar direction as all the sanctions on Russia, as well as all the restrictions from within Russia could really destroy the currency. Since the 2008 crisis & the 2014 Crimea crisis up until Jan 2020, the RUB had lost more than 60-70% of its value. Since then it lost another 50% and most of its losses occurred over the last 2 weeks. We could easily see the RUB go down another 50% as the 'West' has declared a 'financial war' on Russia. Just the USDRUB breakout is an indication that there is probably a long way to go. Going long on the RUB would only make sense if interest rates are so high, while the total RUB supply is close to being equal to the value of the gold reserves the Russian Central Bank holds. In conclusion the best basket of currencies to hold are the USD, AUD, JPY & CNH, while being short small European currencies, as well as the EUR, TRY, RUB & INR. All fiat currencies will get devalued and most of the fiat currency + bond holders will get the most damage. Those who will probably benefit the most are those being long commodities and hard assets broadly. More ideas coming soon on the commodities, crypto and stocks!
by BitcoinMacro
USDRUB worst case scenarioif you haven`t read my first article when i expected the 86 level to be reached after the Russian ruble was no longer aligned to Crude Oil price: or the 95 target after the Ukraine invasion: this time i expect, considering all the sanctions and the fact that exchanges are selling USD in Russia for a price at least 30% higher than the forex market; i even saw a picture where 1 usd was selling for 250 RUB, then my prediction in 150 this time, or the dollar to be 2X stronger than it was at the beginning of this was. Looking forward to read your opinion about it. is it true that the US Dollar is already trading so high at the exchanges? Is Bitcoin a safe haven in these times of uncertainty?
Long
by TopgOptions
2
USD/RUB .. what we see?Hello traders .. I hope you are all well and safe. I believe that we all know what is happening on the geopolitical scene and how the market reacts in such situations. However, this is a USD/RUB chart. I don’t usually trade RUB and this is just my view which might be a good chance to make a profit. From a technical point of view, we have a target of ABCD 1.0 that matches with R3 (PP) and in that area the market will be in the oversold zone (BB). So this can provide bullish pressure (before that, we could get a fake break of this pennant). Keep in mind that geopolitics is in focus and no technical analysis will give good results if something different happens in the world.
Long
by merjemascerija
USDRUB can top around 93.500 but is due for a sharp correction.This is the much talked about (due to the pending sanctions against Russia) USDRUB pair on the 1W time-frame. As you see, it follows a very structured pattern within a multi-year bullish Channel. The price tops every time above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and one Fibonacci extension higher in the Channel than the previous Higher High. The sequence indicates that the next Higher High should be around 93.500. It is still a solid buy on the short-term but if the Cycle continues to repeat this pattern, then is due for a correction on the long-term back to Fib 1.0. Trade according to your horizon and risk tolerance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
USD/RUB WEEKLY TRIPPLE TOPOn Wednesday, the Russian rouble slumped, diving around 3% to hit a near two-year low past 81 to the dollar as Ukraine declared a state of emergency, with sanctions and invasion fears hammering Russian bonds and stocks. Ukraine told its citizens in Russia to come home. At the same time, Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy in the latest ominous sign for Ukrainians who fear an all-out Russian military onslaught. USD/RUB has been consolidating in a narrow range of 81.48-81.63 in the early Asian session amid the declaration of emergency by Ukraine and formed a triple top formation on a weekly chart. The USD/RUB pair peaked above the 80.0000 earlier today, returning to Oct. 30, 2020, high before retreating, potentially forming a Shooting Star. This one-candle pattern demonstrates a bearish response, signaling bulls have been beaten back. It touches and rebounds from the 81 levels. It would be interesting how the traders will reach in the following days and weeks. However, if the price does make new highs, there is a chance that some investors will be aware of this resistance failure. Their interest could become support, pushing the price yet higher. For now, however, traders should treat the 80 levels with caution. If the bears are awakened, they can bring the price to test the peak from April 2021 around 78. Looking at Fibonacci levels, which are confirmed many times on the weekly chart, the price can correct 61.8 Fibo level, which is strong support around 73 or lower to 50 Fibo levels around 70 and confirmed the formation October 2020 to December 2020. But if the bulls decide to remain aggressive on the market, the price could be taken further north and reach the levels from the beginning of 2016 around 85. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carry a high-risk level. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, needs, and trading signals. Therefore, it cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
by legacyFXofficial
2
Short Vision on USD RUB for 21/02/2022Hello Dear Traders, You find below my analysis for USD/RUB , the currency pair is in the sell zone. I expect the price to fall. According to my set of rules, in the M30 frame USD/RUB will fall to 77 as I am showing in my chart. Our Daily Goal is 77.15. Currently, USD/RUB is moving towards the resistance level of 78.25, where there is some liquidity from this value we are looking for short-term selling opportunities of USD/RUB. Good Luck and enjoy your Bearish Market for today. Entry:@78.25 TP1: @77.85 TP2: @77.45 TP3: @77.15 SL: @78.55 As mentioned on previous posting, we oscillate daily with the market based on Human Behavior and Sentiment. Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below, I will be glad to discuss my friends!
Short
by HugoAJROUCHE
Long Vision on USD RUB for 14/02/2022Hello Dear Traders, You find below my analysis for USD/RUB, the currency pair is in the buy zone. I expect the price to rise due to the geopolitical statut. According to my set of rules, in the M30 frame USD/RUB will rise to as I am showing in my chart . Our Daily Goal is 78.4. Currently, USD/RUB is moving towards the support level of 75.2 where there is some liquidity, from this value we are looking for short-term buying opportunities of USD/RUB. Good Luck and enjoy your Bullish Market for today. Entry:@76.2 TP1: @77 TP2: @77.5 TP3: @78.2 SL: @75.5 As mentioned on previous posting, we oscillate daily with the market based on Human Behavior and Sentiment. Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below, I will be glad to discuss my friends!
Long
by HugoAJROUCHE
4