MOEX Russia Index. The epic 52-weeks breakthrough expectedRussia’s trapped domestic investors push stock market to 2-years high.
Russia’s stock market (so-called, Moscow Exchange Index MOEX:IMOEX ) has climbed recently to its highest level in 2 years as domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go snap up the dividend-paying stocks that sold off heavily following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A rise of more than 100 per cent since March, 2022 low has pushed the MOEX index to levels last hit in early February 2022, before Russian President Vladimir Putin announces so-called "special military operation" that sent Russia’s equity market into freefall.
The market’s partial rebound over the two years has come despite the imposition of countless western sanctions designed to cripple Russia’s financial system.
The Kremlin responded to the measures by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts.
Due to U.S. Department of Treasury and Euroclear sanctions, money is trapped.
Where do you put it but on the exchange?
Deprived of investment opportunities abroad (because of stupid, a nazi-like sanctions), Russians have piled their savings into the likes of Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank, which combined account for about 40 per cent of the stock market’s total value.
“Russian retail investors have always been about dividends,” said Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank.
The Russian stock market’s recent rally bears some resemblance to the surprisingly strong performance of the Borsa Istanbul 100 last year.
Russia’s economy has also held up better than expected.
For many domestic Russian retail investors, nothing has changed compared to before the conflicted started, as the economy is doing OK.
Big dividend payers like state-owned Sberbank, whose shares are up 71 per cent trailing 12 months, are attractive to most Russians and now they’re some of the few investment options available.
Even so, foreign investors not banned by sanctions have kept well clear of the Moex since an exodus last February, when central bank figures show non-residents shed about Rbs170bn ($2.2bn) worth of Russian stocks. Trading volumes on the Moex slumped 41 per cent year on year in 2022.
There is a “close-to-zero chance” that foreigners whose Russian holdings have in effect been frozen will be allowed to sell out of their positions.
Perhaps there could be an artificial settlement, some kind of exchange for holdings frozen for Russian investors outside of Russia.
In technical terms, IMOEX graph is near to break 52-weeks highs, following 26-weeks SMA, with further upside opportunities to reach 4000 points and new historical highs.
USDRUB MOEX
Short Term USD/RUB position.Short term:
USD/RUB right now in resistance zone MOEX:USDRUB_TOM (95.5).
DXY right now touched strong resistance area TVC:DXY (104.5).
But globally:
RSI in USD/RUB show great correction that mean unloading before next rising moves.
RUB continue feel heaviness by no investments.
Government have no critical ideas to solve the problems.
My position:
I wait USD/RUB to 91 value by two weeks.
USDRUB updatePrice has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure.
Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future.
1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity ( less than 50 rubles) for further up movement to 137 rubles (sellers liquidity swap).
2 scenario: price continues an uptrend straight away to 137 rubles after what big drop will take place to 50 rubles (less than 50 rubles).
In my subjective opinion first scenario is more likely to happen. But for me 96 rubles level isn't a final line for a drop. If we go to lower timeframes we will see imbalance at 110 rubles level. So I'm waiting price to reach 113 rubles (fibo + 1W order block) and then look for shorts.
Let's see how it'll go on :)
💾 U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOMI know you Forex people are all experts so there is no need for much "talking"/writing.
USDRUB goes above EMA50 weekly.
Bullish wave confirmed.
Potential targets are marked with a black dashed line on the chart.
This rally should last 2-3 months more or less.
Going below EMA50 invalidates most of the bullish momentum.
Namaste.
💾 U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Russian RubleWe are looking at a monthly chart, this is an extremely bullish setup.
USDRUB about to go up strong.
What we see here after the May-June 2022 crash is a recovery phase.
This recovery phase is completed December 2022 when USDRUB closes above EMA100, EMA10, EMA50 and EMA21 in the same month.
At this point the bullish bias is confirmed.
January 2023 was a month of consolidation, the session closed above the moving averages.
In February 2023 the bullish trend starts following the recovery.
In March 2023 we get bullish confirmation/continuation and in April the bullish bias intensifies.
After 4 months of slow but steady growth, the accumulation phase is reaching its end and we should see a reverse of the move that happened between May and June 2022.
As it crashed fast and strong, it will rise with force.
This analysis is supported by additional signals.
The MACD has gone bullish as it trades monthly above 0.
A very strong bullish cross took place and the histogram is full green.
It is also trading above Fib. resistance (now support).
Plenty of room available for additional growth.
The RSI can only be consider super strong when trading above 50 monthly, a great reading... Here is the chart:
Invalidation point
For this analysis to become invalid we would need to see a close monthly at least below EMA100 or $63. Technically speaking, the bullish bias still remains valid even with such a drop.
Prices would need to close below HKEX:50 for the current structure to breakdown.
Everything is pointing up.
I am sharing this update because many people showed interest in my previous analysis "USDRUB_TOM" from Dec. 2022, shared in the "Related Ideas".
Thanks a lot for your time and support.
Namaste.
USDRUB updateUR has reached strong fibo level. It seems like it will continue to rise(big bullish candle). But I wouldn't be surprise if it start to revers now. Why?
Firstly it has touched strong resistance level that was holding price almost for 6 years. So its a strong level even though it was broken in February 2022.
Secondly. If you look at dollar index (green line) which represents strength of a dollar you will see that it's strongly bearish. As you can see from correlation UR and DI has positive correlation (if dollar falls ruble falls also) but with some delays. For example DI started to rise in May 2021 when UR had made big pish up only in November 2021.
I still see UR in sell zone. But April will be deciding month for Russian ruble (and most currencies).
If price will continue to rise next key levels are 87-89 and 90 rubles per 1 dollar. First target as I have mentioned in my previous analysis is 50 rub/dollar and max target is 30 rubles per dollar.
Let see how it'll go.
Good luck:)
USDRUB_TOM impulse wave 3Post downtrend breakage summer 22, consider uptrend is in progress with impulse wave 3 hasn't exhausted yet. Currently per my assumption it's in minor correction wave 4 of the uptrend impulse wave 3. Near-term target is either 66.45, else - 64.92. Mid-term target is around 76.9 - 77.4
USD/RUB :: What will happen to the USDRUB ?USD/RUB :::
1_ Blue channel :
Daily time frame :
It is moving in a descending channel .
Pay attention, there is a possibility that it will move in a range and reach the ceiling of the channel without increasing the price.
2_ In the time frame of 4 hours, it has broken a triangle that has sufficient validity and can confirm its fall .
3_ Returning to the red circle in the middle line is inevitable .
But the final movement will be towards the roof of the channel .
USDRUB - Buying backlooks like someone absobe all sell volume
i think it can rise up so much
buying back the straits
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade