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Usdrublong

USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way. Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy. China - Catch 22 Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU. What can Russia do? Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036). Rate cut implications Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation. Technical analysis I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis. Risks / opportunities On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB. As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
Long
by Miloslaw
6
USDRUB AnalysisEverything on the chart! If my analysis is correct, we move in a triangle (which is characteristic of the 4th wave). Purchases from the global trend line.Or on the breakdown of a local trend. If we break through and fix below the global trend line, the scenario will be canceled. I think long is more relevant. Target zone 86-90 Good luck. If u liked follow me. Hello everyone, almost year ago i have lost my deposit(almost 8btc and i'm still broke w/o deposit and job,I can’t do my favorite thing,It's just free ideas for you) and now i'm trying to get back to the market. If i help you to earn some money i will RLY VERYVERY THANKFULL for your donate(PM to me). Also open to your suggestions(PM).
by trytofeelpositive
5
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
by Dinjin
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
by Dinjin
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
by Dinjin
USDRUB 1$=80In the previous forecast, I said that there will be growth when the price was 72 more. The currency depreciated and reached an important level of resistance. He also wrote that in the event of a further drop in oil, experts allow the dollar to cost more than 80 rubles. But looking at the chart, the oil price continues to fall. According to technical analysis, we have formed a double pattern of a bowl with a handle (a similar situation was on the hryvnia in the previous post) I publish a very likely scenario of further price movement) P.S Friends, support this idea with your like and any comment. This will be the biggest thank you for my work ❤️
by CHOWTRADE
2
Russian ruble: causes of the fall and prospectsOver the past few days, the Russian ruble has lost about 10%. In a natural way, this attracted considerable interest to it. So, we need to talk about the current and medium-term prospects of the ruble. The current decline in the Russian currency is the result of a few factors. Both internal and external ones. Let's list the key theses and give some explanations on them. External causes of the ruble fall. 1. The news about a new sanction package from the USA. This is a US-announced package of sanctions affecting Russia's sovereign debt and state-owned banks. The package has not yet been formally adopted, nevertheless this factor provoked the emergence of a panic wave in the foreign exchange market. But this is not the only external problem of Russia, the Russian economy and the ruble. 2. Trump Trading Wars and devaluation as a way of self-defense. Trump unleashed a global trade war in the US against the rest of the world format. The main weapon of Trump is protectionist tariff barriers. Significantly increasing import tariffs, the US makes its domestic producers more competitive. As a protection tool, the affected countries use the devaluation of the national currency. Chinese yuan, Indian rupee, Turkish lira and other currencies of emerging countries have lost 10% and more recently. Even developed countries such as the EU, Canada, Australia have significantly weakened their currencies. 3. Oil seems to have peaked. The actual abandonment of OPEC + and the start of a new race to increase oil production puts an end to the hopes for oil prices growth in the future. Given that even with the current maximum values of oil quotations over the last couple of years, Russia's budget is literally bursting at the seams, it's even frightening to imagine what will happen to it if prices of "black" gold drop to the area of $30-40 per barrel (more than even in the foreseeable future). 4. Political isolation of Russia Politics is a concentrated expression of the economy. Russia's actions in Ukraine, Syria, interference in the elections in the United States, the case of the Scrypal in the UK, etc., shape Russia around the image of a rogue country, which has a negative impact on the country's economy. Internal causes of the fall of the ruble 1. Unpopular reforms as an indicator of problems in the economy. This is primarily about the budget deficit. To combat it, a few rather painful reforms are proposed, ranging from raising the retirement age to the growth of VAT. Most painful was precisely the issue of raising the retirement age, since the Russian authorities inherently sacred the term "stability", elevating it to the Absolute. And now they refuse it, and in the worst part. Obviously, it is vital to go for such unpopular measures, that is, all other options for solving the problem have already been exhausted. In addition, these reforms are clearly not the last in the list. Incoming the increasing of the tax burden on companies and others. All these in aggregate worsen the already weak investment climate in the country. 2. Inadequate structure of the economy. Russia is often called a gas-station country, hinting at its total dependence on hydrocarbon exports. Strategically, such a structure looks very vulnerable, especially against the backdrop of a shale oil and gas sector and alternative energy technologies (already now, the increase in energy capacity in the US is not due to the increase in hydrocarbon consumption, but from alternative energy sources). That is, the current structure of the Russian economy is, at best, the last century, while to remain competitive, the economy must compete in the high-tech sphere, which is not in sight. That is, in the long term, the gap between the developed countries and Russia will increase. And the resource rent, due to which the economy is now living, is a dead-end path of development. If we add to this the growth of the state's share in the economy (the last signal is the purchase of the retail giant Magnit by the state-owned VTB), the vector of development or, more correctly, the degradation of the Russian economy becomes evident. 3. Inefficient infrastructure projects. To stimulate economic activity, government funds are very actively invested in various mega-infrastructure projects such as the Olympic Games in Sochi, the World Football Cup, the construction of the Crimean Bridge, etc. The medium- and long-term economic effect of such projects is extremely doubtful, but the expenses are simply gigantic, especially for a country that is in acute shortage of financial resources. Well, talking about the launch of a new mega-project of building a bridge to Sakhalin with a value of 500 billion rubles only confirms our previous conclusions. 4. Problematic banking and other sectors of Russia The process of "cleaning" (if mass bankruptcy of banks in Russia can be called so) of the banking system continues. All this happens against the backdrop of the growth of bad debts in the credit portfolio of banks. In this light, it is also worth noting the wave of bankruptcies among touristic companies, mass cuts in several industrial enterprises-giants in Russia etc. So, here and now the ruble looks vulnerable because of the panic wave associated with the news of sanctions. In the medium term, the weak Russian economy and unpopular reforms that reduce economic activity, as well as the potential decline in oil prices, will put pressure on the ruble. In the long term, an inefficient corrupted economy coupled with a dubious vector of its development creates the prerequisites for further lagging behind the Russian economy from developed countries, which will also have a negative impact on the ruble. Total, on all time horizons analyzed, the ruble looks vulnerable, so any growth of it should be used for sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx