Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 MonthsMutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months
In one of the most turbulent trading sessions this year, the Russian ruble reached its lowest point against the US dollar in nearly 15 months on Monday. This decline followed the failed mutiny attempt by The Wagner group’s armed mercenaries over the weekend, which caused significant concern among traders. Initially catapulting to approximately 87 rubles per US dollar, the ruble later recovered some of its losses, settling at around 84.40, down 0.90% against the greenback.
The Wagner group, led by troops loyal to their leader, made an unexpected advancement toward Moscow, covering hundreds of miles before eventually reversing course. In a deal struck with the Kremlin, it is reported that the group's leader, Prigozhin, will go into exile in Belarus. This incident is regarded as the most significant challenge to Vladimir Putin's rule and could weaken his leadership.
The armed uprising also caused volatility in other markets. The international benchmark, Brent crude, rose by 0.8% to approximately $74 per barrel. The trading volume between the Russian ruble and Tether's USDT nearly quadrupled from $4 million on Saturday to $15 million on Sunday.
In other developments, the Japanese yen strengthened by 0.11% against the US dollar, trading at 143.50 per dollar. Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, stated that Japan was not ruling out intervening in the currency markets again. He expressed concerns about the yen's rapid and one-sided depreciation against the dollar. Japan previously intervened in the foreign exchange markets in September and October of the previous year when the yen hit a 32-year low of nearly 152 per dollar.
Usdrubshort
USD/RUB :: What will happen to the USDRUB ?USD/RUB :::
1_ Blue channel :
Daily time frame :
It is moving in a descending channel .
Pay attention, there is a possibility that it will move in a range and reach the ceiling of the channel without increasing the price.
2_ In the time frame of 4 hours, it has broken a triangle that has sufficient validity and can confirm its fall .
3_ Returning to the red circle in the middle line is inevitable .
But the final movement will be towards the roof of the channel .
USD/RUB - Regime Change IndicatorRegime Change Indicator
The Russian ruble will let us know when the madness might end.
The Russian ruble has halved in value over the last four months, accelerating that trend recently, coincident with economic sanctions being imposed by governments and by corporations themselves. At the start of the war, some economists noted that the Russian economy might be able to withstand sanctions given that it has made itself less reliant on foreign capital over the past decade. This is up for debate, but what is not, is the prospect of rampant consumer price inflation and increasing unemployment in Russia.
Attention is turning to how long the Putin regime can last before the Russian people rise up against it. Perhaps Elliott waves can give us a clue as to when that might happen.
Should the Putin regime be toppled, it will no doubt be subsequent to, or coincident with, an appreciating ruble. The chart of USD-RUB offers a compelling wave count whereby a Fibonacci 13-year advance in USD-RUB (depreciating ruble) is coming to an end. Within this count, Primary degree wave 5 (circled) will equal 1.618 times the length of waves 1 through 3 at 167.32 (a typical turning point when wave 5 is extended). This count also offers an Elliott channel target, connecting waves 2 and 4 and paralleling from wave 3, which comes in around current levels.
Thus, there appears to be quite strong evidence that USD-RUB is close to a top (i.e., a low in the ruble). Of course, the ruble can appreciate without the Putin regime being toppled but given the zeitgeist, a lasting low in the ruble (top in USD-RUB) would seem to be probable only with Russia re-entering the global economy, and that would mean Putin no longer being there.
If this wave count is correct, therefore, it might be a sign of hope that the madness will end soon.
USDRUB top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDRUB top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
$USDRUB - Could drop to 70.5Hi guys! 👋🏻
🔔 Globally, oil prices soar, as lockdown restrictions ease and airlines resume operations. Crude is traded near $80 and Brent already surpassed the $83 per barrel mark. Russia is World’s third largest oil supplier.
🔔 Through the year, the Russian Ministry of finance continued its streak of foreign currency and gold purchases. These factors support the strengthening of ruble at least until the end of the year, while the growing foreign currency portfolio will act as a great instrument for Russia to keep the USD/RUB rate within the range of their interest.
🔔 From the technical point of view, USD/RUB also looks bearish for now. There is a descending channel on a daily USD/RUB chart. The 70.5 support area is an important level to watch, as it will be decisive for the next move of USD/RUB. Based on the rules of the falling wedge pattern, the price must complete the 5 wave move and reverse, as it’s a trend reversal pattern.
🔔 However, if the price drops below 70.5 which might happen due to several reasons, interest hike risk, weakening the US Dollar, soaring oil and gas prices. Russia sealing gas export deals with other EU countries, then USD/RUB might proceed down to 68 and 67 as seen on a weekly chart below.
🔔 The pressure on the US Dollar index is high as well, the most anticipated NFP data release today. These data will draw a further course of the US Dollar index, which has already tested a severe resistance zone at 94.3.
✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻
If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
USDRUB top-down analysis, UPDATEDHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDRUB top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Russian Ruble - Higher Inflation data to trigger RUBLE Buying Fundamentals
Today's Russian inflation data could increase market bets of an interest rate hike by the Russian central bank in August.
Against low-interest-rate yielding currencies like the U.S Dollar and Euro, we could see a stronger Ruble as long as the risk of U.S sanctions on Russia does not persist.
Key Points:
Russia’s inflation currently stands at 5.50%.
This overshoots the central bank's inflation target of 4.00%
Markets betting on a rate hike by the Russian Central Bank August from 5.00% to 6.00%
Russian 10 Year Bond Yield sits at 7.20%.
Higher Inflation data could push up bond yields are cause the currency to strengthen.
What To Watch
Russian Employment Data & Unemployment Rate
Oil Prices
Inflation Rate
Trade Idea’s
Higher Inflation - Buy RUB
Technicals
RUB at major support levels against EUR @ 88.00
RUB at major support levels against USD @ 72.00
ATR Volatility
USD/RUB 5.64%
EUR/RUB 5.17%
EUR/RUB & USD/RUB - Short SellWith high inflation above the Russia Central Banks 4.00% inflation target.
Markets are currently pricing in two interest rate hikes from the central bank over the next 6 months.
This will make short-selling EUR/RUB and USD/RUB very attractive to yield-seeking investors.
In this video, I break down both trades in detail.
USD/RUB - Sell Update In this video update to a previous video I posted on selling USD/RUB, we look the Dollar getting weaken against the Ruble and a perfect time to enter a short sell-set up.
The Ruble has a number of factors supporting it's strength agaisnt the Dollar.
1.) Higher interest rates mean selling the currency pair gives you a positive overnight carry trade opportunity.
2.) Higher Oil prices will support the Russian Ruble as Oil makes up 55.92% of Russia's exports.
3.) A weaker U.S Dollar and negative current account balance should further depreciate the dollar.
The one risk to a downside sell is U.S Sanctions on Russia should the Joe Biden take a tough stance with Russia.
We look at Entry price, stop loss and take profit targets for this trade idea.
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
U.S. DOLLAR / RUSSIAN RUBLE (USDRUB) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low.
The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates.
One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades:
For best results trade in the direction of the trend.
The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30.
When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered.
When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered.
This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
USDRUB is ON Sale NowAfter the US took an airstrike on Iran and killing its top general, I have been looking for a countercurrency for USD other than Gold and Oil... and so, USDRUB was detected. Moreover, its price action gave us a convincing sell bias as it has successfully broken the weekly 200ma. This set up will be targeting 55.000 psychological level that was previously tested in 2018 with a risk control stop at 65.000 level.
I was able to enter my sell order at 62 this Monday, Jan 06, and this pair is already trading at 61.15 as of this writing. My trading plan will be to partially take half my profit at 61 level, and addsome more at 60, letting the original half position and the additional order to ride the selling pressure upto 55 target price.
Caveat! Let me know your comments and reactions too.