USDSEK
USD/SEK weakensThe New Zealand Dollar has depreciated slightly against the Japanese Yen during the past two weeks. This has resulted in the formation of a falling wedge. The given pattern was formed as a wave down in a senior ascending channel.
The Kiwi has been hindering near the bottom wedge boundary for several hours. However, as there is still some downside potential until the lower channel line, the Kiwi might actually test the 80.00 mark—an level likewise reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
By and large, the rate is expected to rise in the medium term. It faces several significant resistance areas along the way, namely, the monthly PP and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 80.70 and the 200-hour SMA at 80.95. These levels could hinder the pair for some time; however, the overall trend should be to the upside.
USD treasure map for the coming monthsWeirdly, USDSEK always has the cleanest technical picture/ wave count, which gives us an idea of general dollar strength.
USD is in a bigger picture 4th wave. In the near term, a minor wave 5 is unfolding. If we hit the 50% retracement in this wave 5, the ultimate wave 4 terminal is going to come at where ever the pitch fork becomes support.
Potential short reversal setting up for the Swedish KronaOn the 4H charts, the USDSEK is at an interesting point. We can see that for the most of April, the pair has been in a clean and long uptrend and is now in oversold territory (the Fibonacci extension indicates a move well over 200%). Additionally, the pair has reached a previous swing high. This clearly acts as a resistance level, which the price hasn't been able to break.
Instead, a double top was created, followed by a strong move lower. For the first time in a long time, our moving average has been broken. This has all the signs of a reversal in the making.
An aggressive trader might already be tempted to enter here, but I reckon that the pair will make a retracement to the 9.06000 area first as a way for the sellers to catch their breath. If we see strong selling momentum afterwards, I will be looking for a short entry. Of course, price might move lower straight away too.
I've laid out some of the levels (in light blue) where I can see the price hold up a bit or even change direction. However, if the trending markets of the previous months are any indication, we might see a nice move down.
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USDSEK: UpdateIf anyone followed my last update in my previous $USDSEK post, you are back in the long and in profit. Keep an eye on resistance here to see if we break through, and march to 9. If we do break the top of the range, we could trend higher, for a long time, otherwise we might form some kind of sideways pattern, or a triangle.
I labeled some of the signals from the 'Time at Mode' method on chart. You can see how it perfectly describes the rally from support, and the retracement and eventual bearish failure after the rally off the top of the Brexit range.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie/
USDSEK: Last chance to go longUSDSEK has traced a sharp decline, correcting the recent breakout. Now it appears to have bottomed against a low volume support level, so we can start to go long here. You can buy gradually over 5 days, or risk buying when price breaks above a previous day high, with stop at the lowest low here.
If we happen to break down and move past 8.5479, I would be tempted to assume that the long term dollar uptrend is failing, and we can expect a massive selloff in the dollar accross the board.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EURSEK: Bottomed here possiblyWe can enter longs if not already in, stop loss at 9.4127. Upside is significant. We have very nice action after retesting the Brexit key level in this pair. I have a small long position I took last night, at 9.4196, with a 1 average true range stop loss. My stop is now 9.4127. I'll add if today's bar closes as an up bar.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.