Bullish Liquidity Grab on USD/SGD ExpectedTechnical Analysis
Monthly Chart:
On the monthly chart, USD/SGD has shown a recovery after testing significant support zones, indicating that buyers stepped in to defend these levels. However, the recent upward movement appears overextended, suggesting a potential slowdown or correction in the near term. This aligns with broader market dynamics and the technical exhaustion seen after extended bullish runs.
Daily Chart:
The daily chart offers more clarity on current price action:
Double High Formation: Two equal highs have formed on the chart, a classic indication of liquidity resting above these levels. From a price behavior perspective, this suggests that the market is likely to push upward to liquidate these equal highs before considering a significant move lower.
Consolidation Zone: The price is currently consolidating, which often precedes a breakout. This consolidation reinforces the likelihood of a push higher to clear liquidity, especially when aligned with the broader USD dynamics.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Dollar Factors Impacting USD/SGD:
The strength of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) plays a crucial role in USD/SGD movements. Here's how recent developments affect the pair:
Liquidity Grab in DXY: The DXY recently breached its key level of 107.348 and is now showing bearish tendencies. However, short-term bullish corrections could provide temporary support for USD/SGD, aligning with the potential liquidity grab above the equal highs on the daily chart.
Interest Rate Outlook:
The Federal Reserve has shown hesitancy toward further rate cuts due to inflation concerns.
Robust labor market conditions, especially during the holiday season, reduce the immediate likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.
However, rising unemployment or stable-to-declining inflation could shift this outlook, leading to USD weakness and potential corrections in USD/SGD.
Upcoming Economic Catalysts:
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data later this week are expected to influence USD sentiment significantly. If unemployment increases as expected, it could lead to a broader decline in the U.S. Dollar, impacting USD/SGD.
Summary and Outlook
Technical Expectations:
Short-Term: USD/SGD is likely to push higher to liquidate the equal highs on the daily chart, given the consolidation and market behavior around these liquidity zones.
Post-Liquidity Grab: After clearing the highs, a correction is probable, particularly if the broader U.S. Dollar weakens. This correction could take the pair back toward key support levels, depending on fundamental triggers.
Key Factors to Monitor:
DXY price action, particularly around its short-term support zones.
NFP and unemployment data for clues on the U.S. labor market and inflation trends.
Any changes in Federal Reserve policy outlook or macroeconomic developments in Singapore.
Price Outlook:
In the short term, USD/SGD may target the equal highs as a liquidity zone.
In the medium term, the pair could correct lower following the liquidity grab, aligning with overextended technical patterns and potential USD weakness driven by fundamental factors.
By aligning technical insights with the fundamental outlook for the U.S. Dollar, traders can anticipate near-term bullish moves in USD/SGD, followed by a potential correction.
