USDTRY
USDTRY- 20Dec2021USDTRY- 20Dec2021
On the weekly, price continue to bounce to 17.00 which is also the 200% Fib extension resistance. With Stochastic at resistance, we will need to monitor next few days whether the price will pull back from here.
On the H4 timeframe, price faced bearish pressure from the 17.00 level. With Stochastic also at resistance, will need to monitor closely whether USDTRY will start to pull back.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session.
The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday.
Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date.
Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being.
- USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday.
- The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira
The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline.
The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%.
The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March.
The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level.
While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish.
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION.
- Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !!
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
USDTRY- 17Dec2021USDTRY- 17Dec2021
TCMB slash their interest rate from 15% to 14% causing a fundamental devaluation in TRY.
On the H4 timeframe, price is at an all time high. USDTRY could continue to rally to the further upside.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
Long USD/TRY : hyperinflation in TurkeyPolitical and economical conditions are settled for a hyperinflation cycle in Turkey.
Rampant inflation, panic hoarding of real assets, limits in banks, negative reserves excluding swaps, and crazy politicians.
Compare it to the argentinian hyperinflation cycle, the patterns are the same.
Short Turkish Lyra,we could see a small retrace here, but the cycle has just started.
Pivot monthly closing prices for 2022Among the currencies of developing countries, the Turkish lira is the most fragile against the dollar.
After the messages given by the FED, it seems that 2022 will be very difficult for the Turkish lira.
When I combine the basic elements I mentioned with technical formations,
I tried to show the ceiling-floor levels that may occur in 2022 on the table.
I hope you will like it
USDTRY- 16Dec2021USDTRY- 16Dec2021
Turkey Central Bank is releasing their interest rate decision today.
On the weekly, price have already bounced above previous 161.8% at 14.47. Hence, Elliot Wave 5 adjusted from 161.8% to 200% at 16.560
On the H4 timeframe, price is at an all time high . With the CB bank rate decision today, we will have to wait and see how the market reacts to the decision.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDTRYTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (14.00).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. USDTRY is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 72.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 14.6083
TP2= @ 15.0000
TP3= @ 15.4872
TP4= @ 16.0000
TP5= @ 16.7306
SL= Break below S2
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💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in USDTRYTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (14.00).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. USDTRY is in an uptrend, and the continuation of the uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 65.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 14.6083
TP2= @ 15.0000
TP3= @ 15.4872
TP4= @ 16.0000
TP5= @ 16.7306
SL= Break below S2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ?
Now, It's your turn !
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
USD/TRY Bulls keep eyes on 14.00 - 15.80 | But when ? USD/TRY yesterday remains range-bound near $12.40 heading into Monday’s European session.
The Turkish lira (TRY) pair snapped a two-day downtrend the previous day while staying past a weekly ascending support line.
Given the MACD line teasing bullish cross, as the quote remains above the short-term rising support line, USD/TRY buyers are likely to aim for the one-week-old horizontal resistance near $12.70.
Following that, the $13.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up to the recently flashed record top of $13.49.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line near $12.30 will aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of the November 18-23 rally, around $12.00.
During the USD/TRY weakness below the $12.00 threshold, the previous resistance line from November 23 and 61.8% Fibo., respectively around $11.80 and $11.60, will challenge the bears before October’s peak of $9.85.
USD/TRY today advances for the third session in a row at the beginning of the week and trades at shouting distance from last week’s all-time highs past 13.0000 the figure ((November 24).
The lira depreciates further on Monday in response to earlier comments by President Erdogan, who once again reiterated its firm opposition to interest rate hikes and sustained his (particular) view that interest rates generate inflation. Erdogan suggested that inflation could grind lower before the election in 2023 and added that the recent high volatility in the exchange rate is decoupled from economic fundamentals.
Further selling pressure in the lira came after Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index eased to 99.30 in November (from 101.40). Additional data saw the trade deficit shrinking to $1.44B in October.
key levels:
So far, the pair is gaining 4.19% at 12.7578 and a drop below 11.5451 (low November 24) would expose 10.7007 (20-day SMA) and then 9.6361 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.1105 (all-time high Nov.24) followed by 14.0000 (round level).
-USD/TRY starts the week on a positive footing.
-Turkey’s Economic Confidence dropped to 99.30.
-President Erdogan defended once again the low-rate policy.
USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 13.0648 at 2021-11-30 (today's range: 12.0455 - 13.0658). ... With a 2-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +23.60%.
Buy & Hold | +ROI
Investment Suggestion: LONG-TERM
Holding Duration : Min 2 yeasrs
Probability: 74%
Target: 14.0000-15.8000
INVT Fundamental Report: POSITIVE
INVT Technical Report: POSITIVE
INVT News Report: POSITIVE
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 13.0000 - 13.0700
- FAIR BUYING PRICE 12.0000 - 12.3000
- Our option for #USDTRY is LONG TERM HOLDING.
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
USDTRY- 13Dec2021USDTRY- 13Dec2021
On the weekly, price was not able to close above previous highs. We could expect the price to have one last impulsive move up and pull back this week. However noting that market participants are awaiting for Turkey's central bank announcement on the 16Dec21
On the H4 timeframe, prices tried to break above previous highs but faced bearish pressure. We will maintain slight bullish momentum for now
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.