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USDTRY

Turkish Lira sells the rumour of a rate hike: buy the news?Hello traders. I have been in a bit of a pickle this month: between elections in the US and a stalling EUR/USD, my demo took a bit of a hit (more than I care to tell) and one big mistake was to go long SP500 on the NYSE open the very day that a Covid19 vaccine was announced... There was optimism on Wall Street and I was looking for some direction in anything that had candlesticks to its name... I got caught out in a false move AND the platform froze for several hours, before I could work out stops etc. I lost 75k of paper money, which really hurt my pride and my record. I have gone about reconstructing my account and really giving myself a big talk about never trusting the media on 'optimism' stories when it comes to my own trading. Sitting on your hands for several weeks is indeed what you sometimes have to do, but it does become difficult if that has not been necessary for some time. I have looked at Bitcoin, again ignoring media stories but actually genuinely trying to get in on the latest swing high, though now it is showing RSI divergence on the daily and looking like it is struggling, thus I am staying out of that one for now. My other two trades are: USD/MXN long, which looks to be worth holding on to for a wide target, as it is quite oversold and testing former resistance (now support) from 2018 and 2019, around the 20,000-20,100 mark; the second trade is EUR/TRY long, which takes me to the topic of this video. In the rate hike of today, what did the Turkish central bank hope to achieve? Stem inflation and rescue the ongoing currency crisis. Erdogan is somehow changing his tune with the newly appointed governor, probably tired of watching his beloved Lira falling by more than 30 percent this year alone (on top of more losses before that) and forcing a rate hold on the central bank. My contention is that the last few days we say a 10,000+ pip sell-off that was on the anticipation of the hike, whereas action today was quite muted (although still bearish) and that seems to suggest that Lira buying is done - buy the rumour, sell the news - thus it is back to business as before, selling Lira (and watching the decade-old USD/TRY uptrend continue). I go into more detail, so please look at my volume analysis through MSCI iShares Turkey ETF to get a sense of how I am looking at this long trade as a goer. Thanks for watching! See you in my next Francesco (FreeFX)
Long
by Forexistential
2
What goes up has to come down - really?There is a received wisdom that what goes up has to come down. Well, this currency pair trend may defy that rule. We shall have to wait and see. For sure there are corrections to be expected. This begs the question of what does 'down' mean? Is 'down' - a correction? or - does it mean a fall below its original starting point? If you take it as below some original starting point then USDTRY may never actually go 'down' to a level pre-2011. If you take 'down' to mean a significant correction then yes the pair is overdue a correction. I would argue that a 'significant correction' means a retracement greater than 50% from starting point - to somewhere around 5. That may seem improbable but strange things do happen. I'm not making any predictions here. I don't do predictions. TRY met an all time low on Friday 12th Nov meaning it would have taken about 8 TRY to buy one USD (or one USD would have bought you 8 TRY). Then something 'magical' happened and it appeared to strengthen. This followed major turmoil in Turkey (read the news). But keep in mind that the ratio of USD to TRY is based on US Dollar strength, which is not easy to estimate, as everything is relative. If your US Dollar weakens further this could and bearish pressure to the ratio (that doesn't mean it's going south). Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Education
by Captain_Walker
USDTRY New trading range and the end of correction !As I have posted last week, Turkish Lira has started its correction against USD. But not 7.8000 is my support level, which will be hard to cross, if there will not be strong fundamental advantage. We can expect 8.0000-7.8000 range for next several weeks. I will update analysis if there will be some crutial news. Terms and short forms! T - Trendlines (T1,T2... etc.) S - Supprt levels (S1,S2... etc.) R - Resistance levels (R1,R2... etc.) TP - Take Profit SL - Stop Loss F - Fibo Levels (F23,F61... etc.) Check out my next stream "What is divergence, why it is important for trading?" www.tradingview.com
by AmiranAzaladze
1
USDTRY Supported By The 20sma Again!The USDTRY has consistently been using the 20 simple moving as support since breaking out of consolidation in August and has risen by 11.7% in that time. Catching this trend near the start would have positioned you well to add compounds along the way. Recently price experienced a steep fall which would have raised concerns for many traders out there. But looking at the bigger picture of a bullish trend and identifying the 20sma as a potential support level, would have reduced the chances of allowing fear to creep in. The bearish candle we saw on the 9th November closed below the 20sma but found support at the 8.0000 round number. Now that a potential support zone has been established. We need to see a bounce from this level and eventually a break and close above the current high at 8.5777. In the meantime, we will continue to manage our positions which are running in profit. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
USDTRY 8.2554 - 2.61% SHORT IDEA* CONTINUATION PATTENS HELLO EVERYONE Here's an idea on the DOLLAR/ TURKISH LIRA which opened with a gap and an aggressive fall with the bears looking for some correction of this move but we'll definitely see continuation to the downside, now the structure aligning with our fib levels is the resistance level 7.96612 which will be our aggressive target going down with the bears for long term updates lets wait for now and see what price tells us. HEY EVERYONE Here's a look at the EURO / DOLLAR pair heading into a new week the pair is currently trading in a bull frag which it can break in any direction but looking at the momentum push with the bulls looking for continuation of this move as it would be premature to go against the trend seeing no signs of slowing down on the pair so on higher time-frames we just have an overview of direction and what is the bigger picture in the markets. for entries we scale down to smaller time-frames to determine entries and so forth. many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES.. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES here's some of my rules if they help. 1. look at structure be it descending channels, pennants and so forth. 2. RSI is overbought/oversold so will be looking for a pull back to structure before continuation. 3. will be looking for entries from 30M , 1H, 2H & 4H time-frames if taking the trade long term. 4. aggressive trades can be executed on the pull back 5. price action must definitely align with the plan.' 6. structure definitely 7. the 20 EMA must be respected as support / see a bounce at this structure 8. FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS AS GUIDELINES FOR SL & TP'S . 9. CANDLE STICK PATTERNS. so i will most like's enter this one in a bit but i hope this idea assists in any way on your trading plan. RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
Short
by PULEMokhothu
8
USDTRY Up another 4%!The USDTRY has gone under the radar for many investors who stick to investing in only one market. This forex pair reminds us of why we need to diversify our investment pot. Since the last post, price has moved up another 4% bringing the price rise since breaking out to 20.2% and counting. Trends in the forex market usually lasts only a few months so we may see the trend here come to an end soon, but for now we will continue to ride the wave until we see signs of a trend reversal. We will update our community if and when we need to tighten our stops but as for now, our compounds are working for us and bringing us in some healthy profits as price continues to climb. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
4