Long USD/TRY : Turkey Lira WeakeningThe Lira is nearing its all-time wides relative to the dollar. The Fed’s foreign CB repos and swap lines can tame the USD a bit, but they can’t save the weakest EMs like Turkey and South Africa. Some of Turkey’s largest exports are cars, trucks, and vehicle parts (the 3 are roughly 14% of exports). COVID transportation pain not going anywhere... TRY is. (weaker).
USDTRY
The Basics of a CandleStick (for Beginners)Candlesticks represent where price action opens and closes in a given time period.For example, when looking at a 1HR timeframe, each candle will represent 1HR of price action and also show where the opening and closing price of that hour was.
Green candles show buy pressure
Red candles show sell pressure.
The larger the candle, the more variance in price action.
Wicks are the thinner lines above and below candles that show where highs and lows of price action has reached during the timeframe of a candle.
Wicks on the upside represent the highest price it was traded for during that time.
Wicks on the downside represent the lowest price it was traded for during that time.
Keep in mind that these wicks can be on both the upside and downside of a candle at the same time.
Remember, the top wick is the highest the price was traded at, the bottom wick is the lowest that it was traded at.
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Textbook Double Bottom: Execution (Education, Example)A double bottom is simply the opposite of a double top . This pattern normally occurs during a downtrend and is a signal of a reversal of the downtrend toward an uptrend. It’s easily recognizable by its resemblance to the letter “W”. The initial downward move will find a support at the first bottom and then the price action will rally off the support to a temporary new high
(the middle of the “W”). Another selloff will often take place that will reach the same support level of the first bottom, consequently sparking another upward rally. The trend is confirmed when the price breaks through the upper resistance to complete the pattern and reversal as displayed below. These are the most basic pattern structures of double tops and bottoms that you’re likely to come across. ( cont in our course)
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#USDTRY ANALYSIS.. ABOUT THE MARKET CYCLES.. I think it is quite meaningful to analyze #USDTRY within the framework of market cycles rather than classical technical instruments..
From my point of view we are very close to the part where USDTRY will experience sharp increases in the market cycle.. If we approach the daily chart from a wide window, we can easily see that very similar movements are repeated in #USDTRY.. I expressed in the graph the movement I expected to be in the medium term..
In particular, I think that we are entering a period in which the dollar will grow stronger on a global scale and the results of this will be bad for the currencies of developing countries..
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor.. Please do your own due diligence when it comes to forex-trading.. Invest at your own risk..
I wish you all the best..
USDTRY AttentionHello friends, I wish you all the best.
I shared the necessary information on the chart.
He made 3 peaks 2 times and had a correction.
It is useful to be careful after this point.
He can make the last 3 hills and go to the big correction.
This analysis is not investment advice.
If my sharing has helped you and has an idea, you can like and support it.
stay tuned for new analytics
USDTRY As I told you ! But do not blame be about dropping of TRYOnce I have posted that Turkish lira will get to 7.0000 and some locals from Istanbul commented very aggressively, that it's not possible, and this is bullsh*t. But you can see now that price is already 6.9020. When I am saying that some currency will drop, it will ! not because of my position against that country, I have a lot of very good friends in Istanbul, but just because I am doing analysis in A RiGHT WAY !
USDTRY LongIt has just surpassed the 6.79 level, and is now heading to the next level at 7.10.
The MACD is also showing us some bull strenght, and it the candlesticks were strong surpassing the 6.79 lvl (forming two white soldiers, on the 4H chart, and i believe it'll get to three white soldiers)
We can also see a strong bullish trend starting around the early days of March, which was tested a second time in the end of this month and a third time 5 days ago.
The 6.79 level was tested a few times since the start of April.
USD/TRY is currently trading on its all-time highThe pair is currently trading on its all-time high and will continue its upward momentum in the following days. Turkey is in big financial trouble. The country incurred a budget deficit of $7.36 billion for the month of March. In addition to this, Turkey is losing US dollar reserves on its treasury. Moreover, the country’s central bank slashed 100 basis points on its benchmark interest rate in March. The implication of this is a weaker Turkish lira against other currencies, especially to the greenback. In recent news, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also rejected an offer from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for fresh financial loans. Erdogan said it was not the country’s priority. However, investors and traders see this move as a betrayal to the Turkish economy. Analysts expect that foreign funds will continue to leave the country and place their bets on the cheaper US dollar. The stimulus package by the US government and Fed attracts investors.