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USDTRY

Lira leads gold & BTCExplaining gold & BTC late July - early August upside price action: (Hint: it’s not “US money printing” - that’s clearly not a sudden new phenomenon to explain why NOW) Turkish Lira under attack from inflation mismanagement by President Erdogan & CBRT (Cent Bank Republic of Turkey). CBRT buys gold with dwindling FX reserves, citizens pile into crypto Turk lira price action is ultimately the direct indicator of gov actions and faith in policy & currency, and therefore leads BTC & Gold
by acrossthespread
Going in again for the Risk: USDMXN and USDTRY EntryRight now, two forex pairs that I think will have yet another real quick positive retracement curve are USDMXN and USDTRY. I am keeping a close watch on an entry for these two. I also see some positive sentiment indicating more support levels. As always, please proceed with caution. Do your own due diligence. Everything I say is solely on an opinion based basis not meant to warrant as unsolicited or actionable financial advice.
Long
by gamer456148
USD/TRY Technical Analysis since 2016. What is next?No one has a crystal ball for the Forex market, but what we do have to look at is history. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, when it comes to the Turkish Lira’s current situation, history shows some alarming parallels. The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock/ Forex market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins. And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle If you asked 10 people about their strategy you will find one trader among each 10 people. 9 out of each 10 people become traders then end up losing money after few month, weeks or even days. The only person who keeps making money from the stock / Forex market is the smart trader and not the gambler . If you want to make money from the stock market then you must shift your mindset to become more of an trader / investor than a gambler. Gambler might make some profit on the short or even the medium term but sooner or later they end up with losses. Let's start our analysis; After the economic crisis in Turkey ( in Feb 2001 ) , USD / TRY parity was almost stable between 1.3 and 1.6 for 10 years!!! It was not the best investment decision at this time after taking the huge profit! It was 950% up from 1988 to 2002 ! The breaking point was when I decided to leave the country, I am not joking at all. Look at chart. :) One month after I left my hometown, It was a general election in Turkey. Turkey's 17th general election was held on 12 June 2011. Justice and Development Party re-elected with 49.8 % of the vote. And, TRY lost the game against Dollar again. So, How can you understand that it was the best time to buy as a long investor? The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea. The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point. Pick the weekly chart and look at the chart carefully. 1 ) The 10 years resistance level is broken 2 ) Volume was getting increasing 3 ) MA 50 passed MA 100 4 ) The candle was above the uptrend-line 5 ) The candle was above MA 100 Since May 2011, The candle was always above MA 100. The last time the candle touched MA 100 was in Feb 2013. OK, got it. So, When is the best time to convert TRY to USD for a long time? Be specific. 1 ) When the candle touch MA 100 ( Last time was 6 years ago ) 2 ) When the candle touch MA 50 ( It touched at least once last 17 years, except 2 years - 2015 and 2018 ) More specific? 6.54 and 5.52 will be the next best areas if it drops. If not? Watch out MA 50. Since Nov 2018, The candle was first time above MA 20 , It is a bullish setup for Dollar. Sorry for TRY! USD is super strong as long as it is above MA 20. Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself. What is the USD to TRY exchange rate today? The USD/TRY Forex rate is 6.8 today. Will Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate grow / rise / go up? Yes. The USD/TRY exchange rate can go up from 6.8 to 10TL in 2022. Is it profitable to invest in USD/TRY Forex pair? Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18% in one year. Argentine peso JUST HIT the ATL again vs USD dollar THIS WEEK. Last 20 years, Their historical graphics have been identical. Don't surprise if USD / TRY hit 10TL ( The previous all-time high was around 7.24 on August 13, 2018 ) To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else. **You are an investor / trader, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts. ***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
by EngineeringRobo
1
ridethepig | TRY Q3 Macro Flows 📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks a done deal now) for this monthly closing pattern it means we are ready to march forward in August and September to cripple EM FX. But if sellers hold at the end (seems very difficult with USD shortages entering back into play) then buyers are kept busy. Naturally continue to follow the macro strategy, on account of the 2020 macro flow map: Another move that would be difficult for Turkey to defend against. If you are bearish, continue sticking the knife in via buying USDTRY because it would no longer be possible to prevent the settling above 7.20xx. 📍 The other important note to make is the lack of foreign inflows... rather the opposite, heavy outflows continue with overseas participation in Turkish bonds now at record lows, as is usually the case in the end of dictatorships. There is nowhere for the CBRT to hide.. they will have to devalue the TRY to offset the loss in access to markets. Take a look over at EURTRY which is still up at ATH's ... this retrace is profit taking in the dollar train rather than Turkey stabilisation. Stay long, look for 7.80xx as the main macro target by year-end. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
The Turkish central bank on its official interest ratesBearish investors are looking for an opening to take down the already weak US dollar. The exchange rate is predicted to go down to its support level in the coming sessions as the greenback continues to weaken in the trading sessions. That should help bearish investors force the 50-day moving average to slightly go down towards the 200-day moving average. Just recently, it was reported that a former chief economist said that the Turkish central bank has no more room to lower its official interest rates. This comes after months-long of easing cycle that drove the inflation-adjusted borrowing costs to even below zero. The former bank official was fired last year when after Turkish President Erdogan fired the chief for not easing their rates. According to reports, the former bank official warned the risks brought by the dangerous combination of low-interest rates, a big bond-buying program, and the bank’s credit stimulus.
Short
by Financebroker
USD/TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on USD/TRY. USD/TRY has established an uptrend from the 2nd of June till the 17th of June, Since then it has been trading in a tight rectangle range between 6.834 and 6.858 which broke to the upside before the market close last week. Currently, it looks like it is finding support above the range which can be a sign of continuation of the previous uptrend as long as it holds the 6.850 as support. The level of resistance above the current price the gap around 6.9 and the next one above that is going to be around 6.94. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk ratio if it hits the first target and 5.5 R if it hits the 2nd target. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
Applied ROC Strategy on Turkish Defense Company : AselsanAbout ROC Strategy : Go Long when the ROC crosses above the Value of '0' Short when the ROC crosses below the Value of '0'. The strategy is a reversal strategy through the use of the 'Cover and go Long' and 'Close and go Short' Actions. The ROC property of 'Period' can be changed for testing purposes using the available ROC 'Factor' Important Notice : Although I publish this article in 30 mins period, the strategy works best with the intraday trading(1 min). If you decide to adapt this strategy to your Algo Trader, remind urselfs that %P&L for intraday is around ~8%. Also bear in mind the Turkish Stock Market Volatility plus any political related decisions on defense companies inside and outside the coutnry. The %P&L ratios has been calculated throug BackTesting&Optimizing on Bloomberg Terminal for July 2020. The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
BIST:ASELS
by UnknownUnicorn2854563